Lions win was predictable
19 Feb 2007
Why is everyone surprised the Lions beat the Crusaders?
The New Zealand media have described the Saders performance as their worst in a decade of Super rugby. No overseas critic gave the Lions a chance. If they had looked at the history books, they’d have thought differently.
What few could have predicted is that the Crusaders would not score a try for the first time in six years of this tournament.
But to assume they would win because they are the Crusaders is ridiculous.
Why all the condemnation for the Kiwis? The Saders were never going to win at Ellis Park, not with this team. Technically the Lions beat the champions, but the reality is they played an ordinary team wearing the Crusaders jersey – a team that more resembles the Canterbury side that got smashed in the quarter-finals of the Air New Zealand Cup and lost the Ranfurly Shield at home to North Harbour.
When the bones predicted a Lions win on Friday morning many asked what I had been smoking? The answer to that is nothing. I simply looked at the Crusaders form in Johannesburg during the history of the tournament. Even when the Crusaders have picked their strongest team, with the likes of Carter and McCaw, they have struggled to be convincing at Ellis Park. In a decade the biggest Saders winning margin at Ellis Park has been nine (34-25). I don’t believe it has anything to do with altitude because the Crusaders have shown how good they can be at Loftus, just as the All Blacks have done.
But there is something about Ellis Park that spooks even the best of the Crusaders. So when Robbie Deans sent out a side missing seven test regulars and a few other senior players, they were always going to be in trouble. For the Lions to win they needed to defend like err Lions and they needed to keep doing so for 80 minutes. They did so and for the second successive weekend kept a New Zealand team tryless. Kudos Loffie Eloff and his team. Eloff has picked a young and enthusiastic team, the likes of which are usually at their most dangerous in the first two or three games at home.
They are youngsters who at the moment aren’t negatively influenced by getting a pounding overseas. Eloff’s challenge in the next two months is to ensure the enthusiasm that won them two matches in succession is still there when they get home from tour. There is a view, which I share, that the Lions won’t easily win again in the competition.
Defence may win you games at home, but away from home a team needs to be creating tries to be successful.
My prediction on Friday, for those who all laughed, was that all five South African teams would win. And if you asked me to make the call 100 times again I’d still pick the Bulls to beat the Force. It was the weekend’s banker, but in true Bulls fashion they imploded after leading 17-6. For the last two years the Bulls have sneaked into the play-offs, but they’ve had to travel. Naturally they’ve been beaten. Every time an unexpected home defeat has cost them those league points that differentiate a top two and top four placing.
Victor Matfield was right to kick for the corner and go for the try to win the game. A draw would have given the Bulls two league points. They got one point from the defeat. Another try would have given them a bonus-point win. It was positive play because it should have resulted in five league points. What they lacked was patience in the build-up and Hilton Lobberts was the main culprit in dropping the ball. Lobberts has attitude and passion, but he is clueless when it comes to structure or basic composure. I fear he will become a walking liability for the Bulls.
Of the SA teams the Cheetahs were once again the most impressive. The Sharks were more comfortable winners than the seven points suggested, the Lions won a game they should have, which hasn’t always been the case in the past, and the Stormers got home thanks to an intercept.
After three weeks of the tournament, everyone’s still bunched and to talk of semi-finalists is premature. Bear in mind that by week seven all those All Blacks return, which could radically change the landscape in the final six weeks of the league stages.
The Blues, despite losing by a point to the Hurricanes, look strong. The Canes have recovered well to pox two wins and the Crusaders are struggling as much as had been predicted. Of the Aussie sides the Force are proving the surprise package, although they may find the tournament gets tougher when they take on the New Zealand teams.
The Reds will upset a few teams and the Brumbies are the type of team that should be there at the end.
After round three the Sharks deserve to be top and the only unbeaten team. The Chiefs, the only team without a win, also deserve to be last.
Never has a team promised so much in this tournament and delivered so little as the Hamilton Hicks. Every year they produce a squad of players who get the critics talking of a top four. And every year they are just plain KAK! All of which should keep the Stormers win in perspective. They beat a team missing nine regulars at home and only did so because Jean de Villiers scored an intercept.
178 Comments
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19 Feb 2007, 08:45 am
Hehehehehe Pietman,
Ek sien ek is nog eerste op Superbru….. het gedink ek gaan afskuif na hierdie naweek, for sure!!
Ja, die Bulle het meer die game verloor as wat die Farce die game gewen het……
….. maar die Farce lyk nou eweskielik goed om dalk die semi’s te haal…. 2 wenne in 2 weke in SA !!
Ek dink nie dis verby vir die Bulls & Stormers om hulle seisoene mooi te red nie…. die Saders lyk maar kaksleg, die Highlanders lyk ook maar heel “ordinary” en die Chiefs is fooookin useless… so dit is nou al 3 NZ spanne wat so kak is!!
Ek is bly daar is 2 SA spanne heelbo!
19 Feb 2007, 08:48 am
Jy is reg GBS, ons spanne lyk bietjie beter-af as verlede jaar…4/5 is darem nie te bad nie….Het gelees in die BLOUBUL Sondag koerant (Rapport) dat die lynregter uitgesluit gevoel het in die feesvieringe? Dit waar?
19 Feb 2007, 08:52 am
die lions was ongelooflik. ek het geglo dat hulle die jaar ‘n paar groot spanne gaan skrik maak.
die hart waarmee die ouens gespeel het was awesome. Daar is slegs 8 punte verskil tussen 1ste plek en laaste plek. Hierdie gaan ‘n moerse s14 wees.
bulle kan nog reg maak. die toer gaan deurslaggewend wees.
19 Feb 2007, 08:57 am
Ja nee wat….Die leeus maak my baie trots die jaar!! Ek het gese hulle laat my dink aan verlede jaar se Sharks!
19 Feb 2007, 08:58 am
Who cares if the Crusaders had a weakened team and if the Lions were supposed to win or not, THEY DID WIN, so lets enjoy the moment !!!!!!
I was there and it was a good game.
19 Feb 2007, 09:00 am
Definately…..Thats all the history books will say….LIONS WON!!! It shows Kiwi and Aus teams, that they can’t just show up anymore and expect to collect the points, drink, break something or each other and then leave…
19 Feb 2007, 09:01 am
Every one is gouing on about the yellow Anton got…but in the stormers game there was also yellow for schalk totally wrong and a solid try not given!!! Just cause we won the game does not warrant the descisions all was right!!!!
We should have won that game with a bonus point was it not for Luke showpony try wich he completely fluffed and Veldsman saying he could not see the ball touch the white stuf!!!! I would like to show him on my PVR excactly where that try was scored!!!!! How do these people get their jobs?????????
19 Feb 2007, 09:02 am
#157 Hoops
By claiming to be disadvantaged rugby players….
19 Feb 2007, 09:20 am
Spot on Craig.
The Lions will also come back from their tour with a minimum of 8 points.
19 Feb 2007, 09:22 am
As a Stormers supporter, I’d like to congratulate the Lions on their guts and superb victory. This is a supreme example for Fester to see how a well-coached side can perform. Hats off to Loffie……!
As for my Stormers – glad they took one at last, but have to say it was not impressive at all. Still clear that this team is not coached. We have all the right players, but the forwards do not play as a unit, and their scrum and line-out techniques are UTTERLY POOR!! Paarwater is NOT a forward coach by any stretch of the imagination.
As far as I’m concerned, nothing has changed my opinion that useless – Fester and his mate even – more – useless Paarwater should both go.
Lastly, and fortunately we won the game so it’s not sour grapes….but the ref in this game was absolutely pathetic (on numerous occasions)
19 Feb 2007, 09:30 am
Murphy’s Law:
André Pretorius comes back and the Lions lose!!
Nevertheless… Strydom has done the East Rand proud. Now he only has to put a new banana branch exhaust on his Cortina and he’ll be given the keys to the greater Benoni metropole!
19 Feb 2007, 09:36 am
#161 Kid
The dice!! Don’t forget the new red and black furry dice!!!
19 Feb 2007, 09:37 am
That Stormers kit made them look like members of a chain gang.
They played like that too.
19 Feb 2007, 09:39 am
Fashion screw up of the weekend:
Crusaders red strips across their asses.
Made them look like they all had bleeding piles.
19 Feb 2007, 09:41 am
Bulls Supporters het nooit verwag dat ‘n span soos die force hulle sou wen nie. Hoe voel dit om trug aarde toe te kom ? eish moes ‘n bad gevoel gewees het na die game.
19 Feb 2007, 09:42 am
Hi All – The win by the Force puts the loss by the Stormers into perspective. The Force is not the shite team everybody thinks they are.
To perform at pace at altitute the way they did was fantastic to see. The Bulls thought they would fade and this did not happen.
Both the Stormers and the Bulls played cr@p rugga but credit to the Force, a game well played and well won.
19 Feb 2007, 09:47 am
Now for the lions to play against the Force in Perth…..Gonna take something special as the force will be riding high after those two gifted victories in SA
19 Feb 2007, 09:49 am
#163: Got a point there Dawn, hahaha! But the current strip has got to be better than the Montgomery-era clown outfits.
19 Feb 2007, 10:01 am
167: Kraven, it will be tough. But I reckon the away game for the lions might be nullified in a way.
The Force arrived back in Perth only a day or so earlier than the Lions. The Lions will not be able to blame the travel.
Lions to take points from the Force and the Chiefs. Possibly the Reds but the Lions as far as I can remember have not faired to well in Brisbane (and Sydney and Canberra and… and… and…
)
19 Feb 2007, 12:55 pm
RedCard….the Lions have never played in Brisbane,Sydney and Canberra – that was the Cats!
New team name,new results,new log position,new captain and new confidence!
World class!
19 Feb 2007, 13:14 pm
“The team that more resembles the Canterbury side that got smashed in the quarter-finals of the Air New Zealand Cup”
**** – this ‘saders team has a whopping 350+ super rugby caps.
… and this is a Lions CC team that did not make the top 4.
19 Feb 2007, 13:14 pm
LIONS TO WIN EVERYTHING!
19 Feb 2007, 13:36 pm
To whom it may concern,
Sorry. Too late to hop on the Lions bandwagon now. We know who had their tickets at the start of the season.
Lions to get a home semi.
19 Feb 2007, 13:49 pm
Geez, again I say its too early to be jumping on the Lions bandwagon and hailing them as possible semi finalists. I say after round 8 we can start seeing who will or won’t be in the final four.
19 Feb 2007, 16:16 pm
Yes Keo.
You also said that the Lions would prop up the bottom of the table this season a short while ago.
20 Feb 2007, 01:50 am
Haha. I don’t think this guy likes Keo very much
http://www.counterruck.blogspot.com
20 Feb 2007, 04:28 am
Redlion
350+ super caps.
And what Caleb Ralph has 106 of those caps by himself.
20 Feb 2007, 09:55 am
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