The final insult
The Springboks are expecting gracious favour from Lady Luck, God and the Highveld hoodoo but none of these intangibles will be enough to prevent another historic Australian win.
Slim chances of re-entering the Tri-Nations race evaporated with the capitulation at Kings Park, and there’s been subsequent talk about how this Ellis Park fixture is an opportunity to regain some pride. But what if the Boks fall to Australia on the Highveld for the first time since 1963? That would be the final insult. It would complete the plummet from champs to chumps in less than 10 months.
Keo.co.za looks at several reasons why Robbie Deans’s tourists will head back Down Under on a high.
BATTERY TAKES IT’S TOLL
Another week, another casualty. It’s a phrase that be will used to describe the Boks’ 2008 Tri-Nations campaign in years to come (as well as a few less-than-kind adjectives). The disaster in Durban cost South Africa another first-choice winger in JP Pietersen, a loss that comes just a week after Bryan Habana bowed out with a hamstring tear. CJ van der Linde has been banned for four weeks and will also be missed in a tight clash. For a side that’s already struggling, it’s almost unfair to expect the reserves to gel with the incumbents, let alone provide gamewinning touches.
The Aussies’ appeal of Rocky Elsom’s ban proved successful allowing the blindsider to hold onto his starting position. The Wallabies midfield looks no less formidable with Timana Tahu replacing the injured Berrick Barnes. The tourists may have lost lock Dan Vickerman but it is the hosts who are the more depleted and deflated outfit.
KICKING CHAOS
While it’s tempting to get stuck into those less-than-kind adjectives and phrases, it’s best to look at Peter de Villiers’s own errant slurs when it comes to tactical kicking. De Villiers assumed the Aussies had an inferior tactical kicking game ahead of that Kings Park Test, but Matt Giteau went on to break the Boks with his well-weighted chips behind the defence. Aside from Tahu, every member of the visiting backline has a healthy boot and the back three is strengthened in this area by the return of Adam Ashley-Cooper.
De Villiers has ignored last week’s result and picked two wingers not known for their kicking prowess, ditto the centres. Conrad Jantjes has the goods, but has failed to deliver in this vein in 2008, and the same goes for Butch James and Fourie du Preez. Why wasn’t Percy Montgomery selected for a match that is bound to see plenty of tactical kicking? A back three of Montgomery, Jantjes and Jongi Nokwe provides more balance in this regard.
BREAKDOWN WAUGH
Rumour has it he’s been locked in a dark cellar for seven days and fed on nothing but small scraps of meat, but Deans has finally decided to unleash the rabid force that is Phil Waugh. George Smith earns a break ahead of the Wallabies’ more important fixture in Brisbane, and so Waugh gets an opportunity to show the new coach what he can do with a start.
The problem with the South African back row is their failure to fire as a unit, and the persistence with Pierre Spies and the axing of Joe van Niekerk could prove costly. Elsom’s beat the law and you’d expect him to produce another big performance at the tackle point, and watch out for another prominent breakdown beast in Tatafu Polota-Nau.
SET-PIECE SCRAP
The scrumming was a positive for the Boks last week, but the problems at lineout time cannot be ignored. There was talk about the Aussie jumpers encroaching on the Boks’ side, but you’d expect experienced players like Victor Matfield and Juan Smith to rise above this sort of pressure. Hugh McMeniman and Elsom will look to spoil South African ball and James Horwill is one of the most underrated players in the Aussie side. They’ll miss Vickerman, but another bumbling Bok showing in this area will make their jobs a whole lot easier.
Prediction: It’ll be a sad end to a disappointing tournament for the world champions. Although they’ve been hit by numerous injuries, they will lament their own mistakes and perhaps finally admit that the current approach is flawed. Australia by 5.
Springboks – 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Butch James, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Andries Bekker, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Luke Watson, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Percy Montgomery.
Australia - 15. Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14. Peter Hynes, 13. Stirling Mortlock (c), 12. Timana Tahu, 11. Lote Tuqiri, 10. Matt Giteau, 9. Sam Cordingley, 8. Wycliff Palu, 7. Phil Waugh, 6. Rocky Elsom, 5. Hugh McMeniman, 4. James Horwill, 3. Matt Dunning, 2. Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1. Benn Robinson
Subs: 16. Stephen Moore, 17. Al Baxter, 18. Dean Mumm, 19. George Smith, 20. Brett Sheehan, 21. Ryan Cross, 22. Drew Mitchell.
By Jon Cardinelli
August 28th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Wallaby Dragons!
August 28th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
dragons is the most stupid **** ever
August 28th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
we need peter grant, and we need him as soon as possible. he looks like the only one who will be able to implement this new game plan successfully, considering the style the stormers play
August 28th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Australia is resting their best player against the WC’s
Are you happy now, PdV?
August 28th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
so it will be a win for the Boks then JC
is this technically called hedging ?
August 28th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Front three super. Matfield and/or Bekker; need second rough bugger. Muller, and som eonbeskofte mongrel. Trio problem – all same-same. Need fetcher – but do yuo drop Juan, Andre Venter heir and feared by All Blacks, or reposition 8th am? Halfback pairing an opportunity for something else. Schalk Brits and obby Skinstad? (juts jossing). But 12, 13 and back three (whoever) have got gas. Old thang – give mannetjies the ball, anyway, anyhow,. oh ja, e call him habana, pietersen etc. whatever, give them the ball and ‘belet’ the forwards to be more then 8 m from the tighthead. savvy?
August 28th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Agreed on the lack of kickers in the back 3. I think Jantjes will have to work extra hard to help make up for that area, but his positional play and game reading ability are one of his strengths so lets hold thumbs for that area.
Nokwe’s defence will get tested and no doubt the Aussies will throw some high balls at him. Good luck my man, this is your chance to shine!
Waugh will be going mental in the rucks and to be honest I don’t think we have an answer for him in our current loose trio setup.
Bekker is just getting better and better and I’m confident between him and Matfield our lineouts will be ok as long as Bismark keeps his throwing right. Sharpe isn’t on the team sheet?
The front row victory I believe will be almost entirely decided by the ref for this one as per previous games.
In the end I think Giteau and Waugh will be our downfall, but as usual I’m dying to be proved wrong.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Agree with the article as a whole, JC, but I have to point out the persistant logical flaw in this website’s argument -which is obviously based on the need to punt a predetermined and consistent agenda.
I’m talking of course about the no.8 issue. Let me demonstrate this flaw in simple terms.
You state that our problem lies at the breakdown. Fair point.
You build this argument by giving some nice hype about Phil “the Beast” Waugh’s imminent return. Again, fair point, and no disagreements from me. Our breakdown is a seroius cause for concern and Phil Waugh is going to make us pay.
But then you take this obvious weakness, and link it to the position in the back row that has the LEAST to do with rectifying it. You rather illogically try to infer that Spies’s inclusion is the cause of our breakdown woes.
Well that’s just illogical. It is not Spies’s selection that is the problem. It is that of our flanks. You are right that our loose trio is unbalanced. But that lack of balance isn’t because our no.8 is a ball carrier, instead, it is because our flanks are ALSO ball carriers.
Is Palu a breakdown specialist? Hardly. He is tall, too rather slow to the breakdown, and is primarily used to pummel the opposition as a powerful ball carrier. Well Spies is also tall, he is also a powerful ball carrier. The only difference is that he is FAST, powerful ball carrier, but that merely makes him better suited to his role. All of this has nothing to do with the breakdown.
However, it is when we come to our flanks that we see the real difference between us and the Aussies. They have dedicated fetchers, while our flanks, are basically used to also just run the ball up most of the time.
So yes, our loose trio is unbalanced, but replacing Spies will not change that fact. Getting in a no.8 who spends 25% more time with his head in the ruck is not going to make up for the fact that Schalk is not spending 100% of his time in the ruck, or that Juan is hanging at outside centre most of the time.
Only 1 of our loose forwards should be in the backline, and that is our 8thman. The rest should be grafting.
So, your attempt to make the case for Big Joe – as you have done for the last month – is once again illogical. I agree that Big Joe should be in the match 22 – in place of Watson, and maybe even in the starting 15 – in place of Juan Smith -but replacing our 8thman is hardly going to make a dent in our breakdown woes.
Getting our locks, props and flanks back into the rucks, however, might well do the trick.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Burger used to be a legend at ball scavenging, what happened? Do you think it just got coached out of him because of all the penalties he gave away?
August 28th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
#8 Tacitus: Tacks I buy what you are saying.
Except it has one fatal flaw. Pierre is playing center at least 50% of the time.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
#8 Tacitus:
I completely agree
Last week Spies was asked to play tighter and his impact was nullified
I can’t for the life of me understand PdV’s reasoning
Either you pick Spies to do the job he’s best at and adjust the flanks accordingly or you replace him with player that plays tighter
August 28th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
#10 SodaJoe:
Which is obviously what he has been instructed to do by Dimwit Pienkdas De Villiers. He never used to play like that at the Bulls. Do you think he just upped and decided all on his own to go hang around at the back all the time?
August 28th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
#11 springbokbefok:
Agreed. De Villiers is confusing the players, and I predict another loss on Saturday. My only regret, is that some very good players are now sharing in the blame that should rest squarely on the shoulders of an utterly incompetent coach.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
#12 Tacitus: Maybe. He hasn’t played for the Bulls for quite some time, so hard to comment.
You know I like Pierre.
I also think that his role is not a fetcher – that’s just dof. But he needs to run better defensive lines this Saturday.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
#14 SodaJoe:
I agree his game is below par. But, so are the games of: Burger, Smith, Matfield, Du Preez, Butch etc. etc. etc.
It doesn’t take a genius to realize that there is some common denominator that is causing all of our stars to play kak rugby.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
#8 Tacitus: completely agree with you.been saying for a while that either burger or smith should start,together with a real fetcher. People who criticise spies need 2 understand his qualities on why he is a great athlete.he is not a fetcher or tight player and never will be. He needs the flankers to perform their duties for him 2 shine.and to be fair,which bok has been playing well under the new no structure game plan.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
#15 Tacitus: Now don’t you be a Joost too. Common denominator. Yadda Yadda yadda.
Personally I think selection might be a bigger issue than form. Or the coach. The game changed, we needed to inject pace and athleticism across the field. Fetcher.
Only fixed our front row the last 2 games.
Our illustrious lineout sputters.
Select the right players. I know I know quota quota quota yadda yadda yadda. The best players have been “quotas” imo. Not that anyone has covered themselves in glory.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
#13 Tacitus:
What boggles my mind is that he wants to play expansive rugby but under the ELV’s this is best achieved when you can get quick-recycle ball and string multiple phases together
Yet, he doesn’t pick the type of player (a fetcher) that can achieve this!
And the one player in his squad that even comes close to being a fetcher (Watson) sits on the bench!
August 28th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
Just wondering…has anyone ever considered Stefan Terblanche ?
He seems to be playing well at the moment and has a reputation for having a “Big Game temperament”.
He’s got a decent international try scoring record and the guy has lots of experience …so what if he’s white …just wear shades or something…or just think of him as some kind of an albino…but somewhere along the line I reckon he deserves another shot at the Green and Gold.
I make the statement on the known urge he carries inside of him like many other former Springboks before him …the urge to feel alive again …to run on that pitch wearing the only true Green & Gold and play himself into Springbok history . For a while many people thought that Percy was a waste of space but after spending sometime overseas and returning to SA he actually did the expected …he matured into the Legend he was meant to be! I can’t see why Stefan Terblanche can’t do the same.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
#8 Tacitus: Good post, I agree. Especially about the 1 to 7 doing some work at the break downs instead of fanning out
August 28th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
well at least the Keo team will get 1 prediction right, I feel the margin will be higher though… gotta be 15
August 28th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
I’m glad keo.co.za called a loss; this inadvertently means that we’re bound to win. And I have a feeling, playing ‘pretty’ too. Go Bokke!
August 28th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
#17 SodaJoe:
Good post, saying it all.
How do you call Saturday’s game?
August 28th, 2008 at 11:44 pm
#22 Durban Poison: Unfortunately if we win we will read too much in to it’s value – like beating Wales B, Argie B, Italy B.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:46 pm
#23 Robzim: BobbyZ- i think Australia have more to gain. Setting up a 3N “Final”. So I think they will win.
We missed an opportunity to set up November tour – rest some, blood some, perhaps someone would look at a new combination here and there. But nooooo ….
August 28th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
wow, i know there is a lot of anger around pdv’s ability to coach the boks. but this headhunting journo stuff is poor.
the rugby the boks are producing is not rubbish right now, its just riddled with mistakes, and its different from what we supporters are used to.
the players are adjusting and developing into the new style. dropped passes, knock ons in the hit, little things like that will come right soon.
more importantly is the adjustments needed on a positional play level. having forwards spread across the field is vital for the game plan to succeed, but its the coaching and training how to respond to circumstances when phases breakdown is where our guys need to get up to speed quickly.
and the biggest thing for us for our breakdown issues is technique. in the past we would just get huge numbers there and blanket ruck the other team out the way. now it cant happen because the game is faster and wider and looser when in open play. the fwds who commit to ruck time at those moments need to be upskilled so they can be effective again.
seeing spies and burger fall over at ruck time makes my blood boil. why the heck would you bust your @rse to get to the ruck to have poor technique and just fall over or over committ so that you end up off your feet and completely useless to the cause.
tacitus
for all the good that spies can offer, he hasnt come close to even a glimpse of it yet. he is outmuscled by smaller men at the tackle point, ineffective at the breakdown. his slips tackles and when he does make tackles he doesnt dominate the hit. he is not good on the ground because he is taller, and imo his hands are not up to scratch either for an 8.
so that leaves him with this impressive speed but nowhere to use it coz even his positional play and the decision making once in the right place is below average.
all this points to the bench. spies would make an ok impact player if he can improve on his technical game. right now anyone one of joe, wikus, alberts, keegan, watson, botes, P3, groblaar would be a better option at 8,,,hell id even bring AJ back from retirement coz he offers more.
spies has been a shadow of himself compared to last year. last year before the clots saga, he was shaking people off of him, he was powering through and around tackles, he was ripping it up, his skills were also up. now it looks like he is on some kind of tranquilizer, looks sluggish and not mentally up for it.
the difference between what spies is doing compared to burger and smith, is that smith and burger are still showing clear signs of being competely committed with body on the line stuff. sure they making mistakes at the moment, but they will come right soon. spies is not keeping up.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Aus to take it by 7 – 14 points. Sad.
_______________________________________________________________
Victory in the Tri-Nations match against Australia here on Saturday is important for South African rugby, the Springboks and their coaches, says Victor Matfield.
“We also still have a tour at the end of the year,” the Springbok captain said on Thursday as the South Africans prepared for their last home match of the year.
“We want to gain confidence for the tour by doing well against Australia. We want to convert our opportunities into points and improve our decision-making.”
Matfield conceded that there had been “a feeling of desperation” earlier this week “but the smiles have been back on the faces since this (Thursday) morning”.
Springbok coach Peter de Villiers studied video footage of last week’s defeat against the Australians before deciding not to make too many changes.
“We did not play too badly in Durban and I decided we should stand together as a squad,” De Villiers said.
He agreed that the Wallabies were likely to target the inexperienced trio at the back.
South Africa will have two rookie wings, Jongi Nokwe and Odwa Ndungane, to make up the triangle with fullback Conrad Jantjes.
“Yes, as a combination they are inexperienced and I realise the Aussies will have them in their sights,” De Villiers said.
Hamstring injuries
“But Jongi and Odwa are good players and I’m sure they’ll be up to it. Weaknesses can change into strengths as easily as it can happen the other way round.”
When Bryan Habana and JP Pietersen dropped out of the running for the match at Coca-Cola Park because of hamstring injuries, De Villiers was forced to select Nokwe and Ndungane as the left and right wing respectively.
Together, they have played in only four Test matches and each has appeared in only one Tri-Nations match.
Jantjes, a comparative veteran, will have to pull the strings to help them keep calm under pressure.
De Villiers was, surprisingly, unable to find a place for versatile loose forward Joe van Niekerk.
The experienced player, who has signed to play for French club Toulon for a year, was on his way to the airport before De Villiers announced the team.
“We discussed the matter internally and decided Joe would not be involved on Saturday,” the coach explained.
Danie Rossouw, who can also operate at lock, and Luke Watson are the loose forwards on the bench.
Rossouw was unavailable last week because of a back injury.
All-rounder Frans Steyn was not considered after suffering a concussion last week.
Brian Mujati takes over as tighthead prop from CJ van der Linde, who has been suspended, and Jannie du Plessis takes Mujati’s place on the bench
______________________________________________________________
Coach’s stupid comment for the hour: “We did not play too badly in Durban…”
August 28th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
#25 SodaJoe: the rugby the boks are producing is not rubbish right now, its just riddled with mistakes,
Good comment.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
#26 Tomsta: no idea why it says me Tommy.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
#12 Tacitus: You made a good point. I just wish you (and other bloggers) would afford other players the same benefit of doubt (that they are instructed to play the way they play), i.e. Watson, Burger, Smith, etc. Hell even CJ is playing centre and Beast is playing wing (I must admit he does a good job). So instead of defending your lover boy so viciously just discuss the merit of the case.
Rassie demonstrated ably that you can play a fetcher as a No 8, so although you may not like it, it is apparently o good thing as advocated by a real expert.
In my opinion Spies might do better at 7 as Smith is not on song at present. Instruct Burger to play more as a fetcher and augment the fetching by a No 8 that can also play in a fetching role, i.e. van Niekerk and there you have a strong back three. This is but one solution. Another is to move Burger to No 8 and to bring in a fetcher at No 6, etc.
Spies is not the be all and end all of No 8’s in SA Rugby, as a matter of fact he is also rather off the boil at present, losing the ball in contact, spill cathes, handling errors, miss tackles to name a few.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:55 pm
#26 Tomsta: Good post, I agree.
August 28th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Tot siens
August 28th, 2008 at 11:58 pm
Tomsta – Spies is trying to play like Zinzan, loitering around the back with the wingers etc, retrieving high balls and making a few yards, problem is, he runs away from support and the rest of the team dont have a plan to leverage from what he does.
Its not a bad way of playing per se, its just that his team mates are unsure as to what to do next, including the backs.
August 29th, 2008 at 12:03 am
It is interesting to see that Alan Zondagh reckons the problem is not with the coaching of the Boks or with the the new gameplan. He reckons the main problem is that the SA players do not play the contact situation correctly and should learn to dominate it more. He said it is something that can fairly easy be rectified.
I do not know whether it can really be that easy but Zondagh is suppose to be a very experienced expert. There is unfortunately not much hope that they will be able to rectify it before Saturday
August 29th, 2008 at 12:06 am
Pierre Spies indeed played all of the last 7/8 games for the Bulls in the Super 14. He was doing his job then.
August 29th, 2008 at 12:07 am
the 8/9 combo of spies and du preez is not working! why are they persisted with?
August 29th, 2008 at 12:12 am
#33 KiaKahaNZ:
howzit kia
not sure if spies is trying to play just like zinny, but you right the positional play isnt wrong, its just his accuracy in decision making once he gets into those situations.
an 8 is a covering position. he covers the wingers and 15, he covers his loosie mates. the 8 has to be able to read play and be everywhere. spies sometiems gets this right, sometimes (i reckon it takes a while for an 8 to develop this part of his game unless he is a natural and plays through school, club and provincial there) but then when he gets ball in hand he does the wrong things or is ineffective in doing the right thing.
agree munki the 8/9 combo is way way off right now. there has to be a lot of communication between the 2.
August 29th, 2008 at 12:13 am
#8 Tacitus: And Big Joe madea big F%$up last time by not coming around teh back of the scrum to mark the inside channel like a good 7 should. He left a gap for Mortlock as big as a barn door.
That is why Mortlock scored a try.
August 29th, 2008 at 12:14 am
#24 SodaJoe: Jislaaik boet, after the Olympics and Tri-nations debacles (ODI cricket intentionally not included, as I see it as a minor blip
, I want a win so badly that I’m looking everywhere for common denominators. What the heck, does someone have Suzie’s contact details? I believe that she’s from Jozi – hope she hasn’t emigrated!
August 29th, 2008 at 12:14 am
Aussies by 5 JC? I’d bet my house it’s going to be a lot more than that. More like Aussies by 25, and hopefully the beginning of the end for that fool who calls himself a coach.
August 29th, 2008 at 12:17 am
#39 Durban Poison:
there gold medal hope mahe dreysdale picked up food poisoning from the budweizer tent,,,somehow 
the kiwis reckon suzie was hired for work at the olympic village
August 29th, 2008 at 12:17 am
#30 Boerboel: Please don’t mention Watson’s name in the same sentence or breath as the other guys you mention. They are at least rugby players.
August 29th, 2008 at 12:19 am
#34 Robzim: Alan Zondagh makes some interesting points to ponder, but I have the sneaky feeling that his comments were made to guarantee him a head start for the Director of Rugby position that SARU are apparently about to advertise.
August 29th, 2008 at 12:21 am
#27 wooden spoon: “…Two rookie wings….”? More like two blessed quota inserts, neither of whom have any idea about defence. On attack they’re fine, but I can’t imagine we’re going to get enough ball to give them a chance.
August 29th, 2008 at 12:30 am
#44 ansie:
Dont worry ansie, they not going to see the ball
August 29th, 2008 at 12:30 am
#33 KiaKahaNZ:
This is what happens when the gameplan is “play what’s in front of you”
His teammates doesn’t know what he’s going to do because he’s playing the situation instead of playing to a more structured gameplan
That’s why so many Boks get themselves isolated…by the time the other players react it’s too late
It’s a naive gameplan and one that can only work if the same core of players play together for a long time
That’s probably why PdV is persisting with the same players
August 29th, 2008 at 12:53 am
try enjoy the game folks, im outta here!
August 29th, 2008 at 12:55 am
I do believe that should we lose his weekend we will have had our worst 3 Nations ever?
Get a quota coach…..and you gonna getta quota results.
August 29th, 2008 at 1:00 am
Surely as saffers you must want to lose this game. A win here would only paper over the cracks right.
Go the Wallabies.
August 29th, 2008 at 1:01 am
Personally….I think that the Kiwis and Ozzies are playing as conservatively as I can ever remember.
But not us, we know better…..we are going hell for leather,spread it to the wings, who needs go forward ball?
Why bother dominating collisions, we off load in the tackle….not.