The final insult
29 Aug 2008
The Springboks are expecting gracious favour from Lady Luck, God and the Highveld hoodoo but none of these intangibles will be enough to prevent another historic Australian win.
Slim chances of re-entering the Tri-Nations race evaporated with the capitulation at Kings Park, and there’s been subsequent talk about how this Ellis Park fixture is an opportunity to regain some pride. But what if the Boks fall to Australia on the Highveld for the first time since 1963? That would be the final insult. It would complete the plummet from champs to chumps in less than 10 months.
Keo.co.za looks at several reasons why Robbie Deans’s tourists will head back Down Under on a high.
BATTERY TAKES IT’S TOLL
Another week, another casualty. It’s a phrase that be will used to describe the Boks’ 2008 Tri-Nations campaign in years to come (as well as a few less-than-kind adjectives). The disaster in Durban cost South Africa another first-choice winger in JP Pietersen, a loss that comes just a week after Bryan Habana bowed out with a hamstring tear. CJ van der Linde has been banned for four weeks and will also be missed in a tight clash. For a side that’s already struggling, it’s almost unfair to expect the reserves to gel with the incumbents, let alone provide gamewinning touches.
The Aussies’ appeal of Rocky Elsom’s ban proved successful allowing the blindsider to hold onto his starting position. The Wallabies midfield looks no less formidable with Timana Tahu replacing the injured Berrick Barnes. The tourists may have lost lock Dan Vickerman but it is the hosts who are the more depleted and deflated outfit.
KICKING CHAOS
While it’s tempting to get stuck into those less-than-kind adjectives and phrases, it’s best to look at Peter de Villiers’s own errant slurs when it comes to tactical kicking. De Villiers assumed the Aussies had an inferior tactical kicking game ahead of that Kings Park Test, but Matt Giteau went on to break the Boks with his well-weighted chips behind the defence. Aside from Tahu, every member of the visiting backline has a healthy boot and the back three is strengthened in this area by the return of Adam Ashley-Cooper.
De Villiers has ignored last week’s result and picked two wingers not known for their kicking prowess, ditto the centres. Conrad Jantjes has the goods, but has failed to deliver in this vein in 2008, and the same goes for Butch James and Fourie du Preez. Why wasn’t Percy Montgomery selected for a match that is bound to see plenty of tactical kicking? A back three of Montgomery, Jantjes and Jongi Nokwe provides more balance in this regard.
BREAKDOWN WAUGH
Rumour has it he’s been locked in a dark cellar for seven days and fed on nothing but small scraps of meat, but Deans has finally decided to unleash the rabid force that is Phil Waugh. George Smith earns a break ahead of the Wallabies’ more important fixture in Brisbane, and so Waugh gets an opportunity to show the new coach what he can do with a start.
The problem with the South African back row is their failure to fire as a unit, and the persistence with Pierre Spies and the axing of Joe van Niekerk could prove costly. Elsom’s beat the law and you’d expect him to produce another big performance at the tackle point, and watch out for another prominent breakdown beast in Tatafu Polota-Nau.
SET-PIECE SCRAP
The scrumming was a positive for the Boks last week, but the problems at lineout time cannot be ignored. There was talk about the Aussie jumpers encroaching on the Boks’ side, but you’d expect experienced players like Victor Matfield and Juan Smith to rise above this sort of pressure. Hugh McMeniman and Elsom will look to spoil South African ball and James Horwill is one of the most underrated players in the Aussie side. They’ll miss Vickerman, but another bumbling Bok showing in this area will make their jobs a whole lot easier.
Prediction: It’ll be a sad end to a disappointing tournament for the world champions. Although they’ve been hit by numerous injuries, they will lament their own mistakes and perhaps finally admit that the current approach is flawed. Australia by 5.
Springboks – 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Butch James, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Andries Bekker, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Luke Watson, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Percy Montgomery.
Australia - 15. Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14. Peter Hynes, 13. Stirling Mortlock (c), 12. Timana Tahu, 11. Lote Tuqiri, 10. Matt Giteau, 9. Sam Cordingley, 8. Wycliff Palu, 7. Phil Waugh, 6. Rocky Elsom, 5. Hugh McMeniman, 4. James Horwill, 3. Matt Dunning, 2. Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1. Benn Robinson
Subs: 16. Stephen Moore, 17. Al Baxter, 18. Dean Mumm, 19. George Smith, 20. Brett Sheehan, 21. Ryan Cross, 22. Drew Mitchell.
By Jon Cardinelli
1,238 Comments
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29 Aug 2008, 11:16 am
I’ve been waiting for “The Official Keo.co prediction”.
And now it’s out, I’m off to the Betting Shop.
These clowns have not predicted one (1) correct result in the whole 3N so far.
Bring back Dem Bones Keo………….they are smarter than your merry band of plagiarists by far.
29 Aug 2008, 11:17 am
#546 Puma: when I was a kid there was always an extra buzz in NZ whenever the two teams were due to meet… hasnt changed a bit, and Im sure if you ask past and present AB’s who they most want to play, it would be a unanimous decision for the Boks….
29 Aug 2008, 11:17 am
#548 grootblousmile:
We’ve had our fights and brawls in the past … but I’m also very close to my Dad and can’t imagine what you going through.
All the best.
29 Aug 2008, 11:18 am
#542 XhosaKid: You must be joking!!! Adi was great this year but when JF is fit he is so much better. Not taking anything for Adi. I think they must both play end of tour together and PdV should be put to the wing.
29 Aug 2008, 11:18 am
#533 SyKoPlaya: agree re:soocer, it pisses me off too. To me , it appears that its easier for white players to be average and still get to play for longer, Adi Jacobs is playing good rugby for the boks but couldn’t buy a game for the Sharks, if it wasn’t for PDV, he would be playing for Wilderbeest, thats what gets my blood boiling.
29 Aug 2008, 11:19 am
I’ve gone for the Guppies by 21 and the Bulls by 16 on SuperBru…
I’ve also predicted an Ozzie win by 16……………. eishhhhhhh
29 Aug 2008, 11:19 am
#550 Puma: you’re not making excuses are you ?
29 Aug 2008, 11:21 am
#551 cane: looks like the Boks will win on Saturday
29 Aug 2008, 11:22 am
#553 Dawn: Thanks Dawn….. the most difficult part is seeing the strong man suffer.
Yesterday, I took a Notebook Computer with me to hospital to keep my mind busy, because I’d go bonkers if I cannot keep my head busy….
29 Aug 2008, 11:22 am
#552 poppa69: We will always feel like that here. I was brought up like that too. My Dad used to tell me all about the Ab’s and Bok games. So its in my blood. As a Bok supporter I always look forward to the games against the Ab’s. Just this year sorry mate about us just falling down again after getting up in the past 4 years. We have a lot of depth here and we should be back up again by next year. Not sure about end of year tour as think the coach will take new young players there. So maybe more losses. I think he should stick with most of his players now. Time will tell. I do feel if we played a more structured game we would have been a better team. Cant wait for next year when Ab’s come here. I think your guys will be here for two 3N games.
29 Aug 2008, 11:23 am
#497 grootblousmile:
baie jammer om dit te ****, woorde doen min op hierdie tye.
29 Aug 2008, 11:23 am
#554 Puma: Want him moved from being the coach to playing on the wing?
29 Aug 2008, 11:24 am
#536 vindicated: Sadly…there can be only one
29 Aug 2008, 11:24 am
#555 XhosaKid:
Look, the one thing I have against Jake ( probably the only thing) is him not choosing Adrian ahead of Meisiekind.
Adi had to wait six years to play Springbok again.
And this boy was made for the big time from his schoolboy days in Kraaifontein, pity he had to lose all that time before showing up.
Not his fault.
But he has time now.
29 Aug 2008, 11:25 am
#538 Pietman: Dog ek het verkeerd gelees…..hoe se hulle op tuks JOU MAAAAAAAA
29 Aug 2008, 11:25 am
#554 Puma: Habana; Nokwe, Chavanga, JP, Ndungane are ours wings, why should they make way?”.JDV, Fourie, Jacobs are our centers, they must compete between themselves, in my humble opinion, I dont see Fourie ahead of either, what is it that Fourie can provide that Adi or JDV cant give us, except that both JDV and Adi have that “something” extra that can’t be coached.
29 Aug 2008, 11:26 am
#557 vindicated: No not at all. Just rate those players more than the ones that are there at the moment. Aussies have played well this year. Its good to see them on the up again. If one of the 3N teams are on the down it makes for less exciting 3N. So hope next year we are back up there as its a cracker then if all there are playing to their best. Also hope no injuries in any of the 3 Teams next year.
29 Aug 2008, 11:26 am
Pinocchio’s Strong Points
1. Believes in Himself
2. Handles negative criticism pretty well (to date)
3. Open to public / press dialogue
4. Doesn’t treat his players like robots (I say, You do)
5. Allows players to ‘back themselves’ on the field
6. Does not panic with wholesale team changes after three losses in a row
7. Wants to play ‘entertaining’ rugby
8. Stands up to saru / government interference (to date)
9. Seems to be generally ‘colour blind’
10. All round ‘nice guy’
Pinocchio’s Weak Points
1. Fixated with a game plan that is not conducive to the SA Rugby Player Profile
2. Everyone wants ‘entertaining rugby’, but only once the team has cemented its foundation in a game and has the ‘upper hand’ – No structured approach.
3. Selection of Players that do not fit ‘his’ game plan
4. Expecting players to display their own initiative on the field – some are too dof
5. Stubbornness – wont take or even listen to constructive advice
6. Insisting on wanting to fix something that was not broken in the first place
7. Fixation with Western Province Players (always look there first)
8. No recognized “Fetcher” eg Baywatch, irrespective of what the game plan is
9. Continued selection and playing of Lukeless Watson
10. Allows his strings to be pulled by ‘certain individuals’ who have hidden agenda’s
Now, if you consider that his weak points are of such a nature that can be easily rectified by simply addressing each one in turn, in reverse order (namely read 10 back down to 1), together with his Strong Points (which are good) the situation Springbok rugby currently finds itself in can be rectified and Pinocchio will attain glory on his and our behalf.
Please stop letting us down!
29 Aug 2008, 11:26 am
#565 EEE: Sent you more mail!
29 Aug 2008, 11:27 am
#561 cab: Dankie !
Woorde is soms hol, maar die sentiment agter die woorde word waardeer !
29 Aug 2008, 11:29 am
Om toetsrugby te kyk is soos ‘n wildtuin besoek. Jy eet lekker biltong, drink lekker bier, en kyk hoe die bokke k@k!
29 Aug 2008, 11:29 am
Boks look too aimless, maybe start with Luke and see how it goes at the breakdown
29 Aug 2008, 11:30 am
#564 Pietman: I dont even want to mention Wynand Olivier, its like talking about Dale Santon being a WC bok, what a freakin joke!!!
29 Aug 2008, 11:30 am
#555 XhosaKid:
I do agree that the situation you describe does exist.
I think that this was a major reason the Snor was appointed. This also annoys me in a way.
However, what really does piss me off is that at age group level there are always very good non-white players that never seem to get any further ahead with contracts with Unions. Lobberts and on or two others are the exception – but where are the others???
If the age grouo players could progress further into a professional setup then it would be the resposiblity of the Bok coach to filful quotas as the players would already be in the mix.
29 Aug 2008, 11:31 am
#571 ginger judge:
Sigh.
29 Aug 2008, 11:31 am
Got to Agree Aussies to win but by more than 5, unless the players decie t go back to the old school way.
29 Aug 2008, 11:31 am
#566 XhosaKid: Sometimes JdV just never passes or drops the ball a lot. He does make a lot of breaks but for me JF is a better player. Much stronger too. We never missed JdV in the WC last year and we had Steyn there that played even better. JdV used to play on the wing was good there. Habs for me will always be South Africas best wing ever. Nokwe still hast to prove himself in Bok level. He is a fast guy that and would love to see him get more chances. A pity that Chavanga was injured as I think he would have been fantastic there this year. JP was good last year this year he seems to have gone a little back but he is such a good player he will be back. Ndungane don’t match those 3. For me anyway.
29 Aug 2008, 11:32 am
#556 grootblousmile: HI Pal! We are here 4 u always! Voorspoed!
29 Aug 2008, 11:32 am
#565 EEE:
Ja dit ook, of sy ma se p@##s, soos Bolla sou se, ongeskikte werfetter, fck hom.
#561 cab:
Kreef? Het jy ?
Ek het maar my laaste perlemoen vandag gekook nadat jy en Dawn my gister so seekos lus gemaak het.
#556 grootblousmile:
Praat van seekos, ek sien hulle het daai Porra doodgeskiet in n roof daar by die Blue Venus in Boksburg, het jy gesien, eergister ?
Blue Venus, ken jy dit, in die industrieele gebied daar by jou ?
29 Aug 2008, 11:33 am
#575 Dawn: Hi Dawnie. Thanks for everything! You are our star!
29 Aug 2008, 11:33 am
#575 Dawn:
29 Aug 2008, 11:34 am
#574 SyKoPlaya:
I think that one or two of the major unions are contracting all the youngsters and leaving them to kick their heels because of having too much depth. It would be far better if these youngsters were spread around more.
29 Aug 2008, 11:36 am
#564 Pietman: Agree with you there that was the only thing I had against Jake but that was all as he was a good coach. Just could not understand why he always picked W.Olivier instead of Adi. Adi was good in the Sharks last year even if he came in off the bench he just always looked so good. Well he has his chance now and I am pleased for him. He plays with his heart big time.
29 Aug 2008, 11:37 am
#578 Sniper: I read your solitary post of Wednesday… or was it yesterday…….. Thanks
#579 Pietman: Nee Pieta, kennie die Blue Venus nie…. my favourite seekosplekkie is ‘n plek met die naam O’Patio’s in Doosburg. Daai Porras weet darem maar van seekos jong !
29 Aug 2008, 11:37 am
Here is a question for any Sa supporters out there who want to talk about rugby and not coaches, transformation etc. One thing which is not obvious to me is why the Bok lineout has not functioned as well this year as it usually does. Now, per my earlier posting I think the ELVs drastically water down the impact a strong lineout has on a game, because short arm penalties give the opposition the throw rather than the team awarded the penalty. But that doesn’t change the fact the Bok lineout is not as good this year when it is a Springbok throw. Why is this? If anything you would think this new monster of a lock of yours would have made the lineout even better. But clearly not. Is it Joh Smit’s absence? Is this guy Bismark, for all his talent as a forward, not a good thrower?
29 Aug 2008, 11:38 am
#579 Pietman:
nee Piet, weg van die kaap af, nou in joburg, die seekos hierbo is nie great nie.
het gedink suid korea is op die kus? te veel missiles in die water?
29 Aug 2008, 11:40 am
XhosaKid
Wynand Olivier gives everyone hope of becoming Springbok oneday…
29 Aug 2008, 11:41 am
#562 shark_time: Coach!!!
29 Aug 2008, 11:41 am
#587 AWESOMESTORMER: Hope not.
29 Aug 2008, 11:42 am
#582 David:
I didn’t know that – maybe, like in soccer, they could send these players out on loan to smaller Unions. That way they could still play and build up experience ect. ect.
But, then again, it probably makes too much sense for rugby administrators ……..
29 Aug 2008, 11:42 am
#586 cab:
Hier is baie krappe en oesters en allerhande visse, kreef kom van Japan af, baie duur en klein, tot R1000 vir een kreef, en dan moet jy n strikdas aansit en by die Hyatt of Radisson gaan aansit eet…nie vir my nie.
Ek soek hom in die pot, soos in SA.
So, ek lek maar lippe en hou verby eers.
29 Aug 2008, 11:42 am
Hey guys what are the chances of the boks winning tomorow?
29 Aug 2008, 11:43 am
#567 Puma: you are starting to sound like a normal person
29 Aug 2008, 11:43 am
#583 Puma:
Jakes approach to transformation was an extremely cynical one with Julies the preferred “quota” at centre. The other problem is that Jake created and managed his squad with the WC as his only focus. His whole planning was geared around the permutations that the WC restrictions (player numbers) allowed. This is why he favoured players, outside of his starting 15, to be utility players.
29 Aug 2008, 11:43 am
Die has been champs gaan seker maar weer skouspelagtig verneder word soos laas week. Wat help die oorwinning in new Zealand nou?
Snorman se span keuse is vir game more is abseluut pateties.die wings is hopeless en butch james speel seker van sy swakste rugby ooit.
29 Aug 2008, 11:44 am
Buck
Matfield has gone a couple of steps back in terms of his rugby and again he is so used to playing next to Bakkies i guess thats one of the reason we`ve been poor at the lineouts. Again Bismark is not that good anyone remembers the Super 14 semifinal?
29 Aug 2008, 11:45 am
#582 David: I agree with that. But not just youngsters and surplus players can be sent to uniouns that need specific positions for cover E.g. WP has 4 good scrumhalves they can loan one of them to cheetahs or griquas.
29 Aug 2008, 11:46 am
#585 Buck:
Smit was deadly accurate, not at first, but he has honed it – but the major difference is that the kiwis and ozzies have imo developed a pre-planned tactic to disrupt our jumpers and more specifically to come through our lineout for the pick-off the tap…i dont think either are legal but no-one caught on yet. want to make it as scrappy for us as possible and watch palu coming thru.
29 Aug 2008, 11:46 am
Jake brought all this mess
29 Aug 2008, 11:46 am
#596 AWESOMESTORMER: The whole Sharks team was poor in the semi final!
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