The final insult
29 Aug 2008
The Springboks are expecting gracious favour from Lady Luck, God and the Highveld hoodoo but none of these intangibles will be enough to prevent another historic Australian win.
Slim chances of re-entering the Tri-Nations race evaporated with the capitulation at Kings Park, and there’s been subsequent talk about how this Ellis Park fixture is an opportunity to regain some pride. But what if the Boks fall to Australia on the Highveld for the first time since 1963? That would be the final insult. It would complete the plummet from champs to chumps in less than 10 months.
Keo.co.za looks at several reasons why Robbie Deans’s tourists will head back Down Under on a high.
BATTERY TAKES IT’S TOLL
Another week, another casualty. It’s a phrase that be will used to describe the Boks’ 2008 Tri-Nations campaign in years to come (as well as a few less-than-kind adjectives). The disaster in Durban cost South Africa another first-choice winger in JP Pietersen, a loss that comes just a week after Bryan Habana bowed out with a hamstring tear. CJ van der Linde has been banned for four weeks and will also be missed in a tight clash. For a side that’s already struggling, it’s almost unfair to expect the reserves to gel with the incumbents, let alone provide gamewinning touches.
The Aussies’ appeal of Rocky Elsom’s ban proved successful allowing the blindsider to hold onto his starting position. The Wallabies midfield looks no less formidable with Timana Tahu replacing the injured Berrick Barnes. The tourists may have lost lock Dan Vickerman but it is the hosts who are the more depleted and deflated outfit.
KICKING CHAOS
While it’s tempting to get stuck into those less-than-kind adjectives and phrases, it’s best to look at Peter de Villiers’s own errant slurs when it comes to tactical kicking. De Villiers assumed the Aussies had an inferior tactical kicking game ahead of that Kings Park Test, but Matt Giteau went on to break the Boks with his well-weighted chips behind the defence. Aside from Tahu, every member of the visiting backline has a healthy boot and the back three is strengthened in this area by the return of Adam Ashley-Cooper.
De Villiers has ignored last week’s result and picked two wingers not known for their kicking prowess, ditto the centres. Conrad Jantjes has the goods, but has failed to deliver in this vein in 2008, and the same goes for Butch James and Fourie du Preez. Why wasn’t Percy Montgomery selected for a match that is bound to see plenty of tactical kicking? A back three of Montgomery, Jantjes and Jongi Nokwe provides more balance in this regard.
BREAKDOWN WAUGH
Rumour has it he’s been locked in a dark cellar for seven days and fed on nothing but small scraps of meat, but Deans has finally decided to unleash the rabid force that is Phil Waugh. George Smith earns a break ahead of the Wallabies’ more important fixture in Brisbane, and so Waugh gets an opportunity to show the new coach what he can do with a start.
The problem with the South African back row is their failure to fire as a unit, and the persistence with Pierre Spies and the axing of Joe van Niekerk could prove costly. Elsom’s beat the law and you’d expect him to produce another big performance at the tackle point, and watch out for another prominent breakdown beast in Tatafu Polota-Nau.
SET-PIECE SCRAP
The scrumming was a positive for the Boks last week, but the problems at lineout time cannot be ignored. There was talk about the Aussie jumpers encroaching on the Boks’ side, but you’d expect experienced players like Victor Matfield and Juan Smith to rise above this sort of pressure. Hugh McMeniman and Elsom will look to spoil South African ball and James Horwill is one of the most underrated players in the Aussie side. They’ll miss Vickerman, but another bumbling Bok showing in this area will make their jobs a whole lot easier.
Prediction: It’ll be a sad end to a disappointing tournament for the world champions. Although they’ve been hit by numerous injuries, they will lament their own mistakes and perhaps finally admit that the current approach is flawed. Australia by 5.
Springboks – 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Butch James, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Andries Bekker, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Luke Watson, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Percy Montgomery.
Australia - 15. Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14. Peter Hynes, 13. Stirling Mortlock (c), 12. Timana Tahu, 11. Lote Tuqiri, 10. Matt Giteau, 9. Sam Cordingley, 8. Wycliff Palu, 7. Phil Waugh, 6. Rocky Elsom, 5. Hugh McMeniman, 4. James Horwill, 3. Matt Dunning, 2. Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1. Benn Robinson
Subs: 16. Stephen Moore, 17. Al Baxter, 18. Dean Mumm, 19. George Smith, 20. Brett Sheehan, 21. Ryan Cross, 22. Drew Mitchell.
By Jon Cardinelli
1,238 Comments
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29 Aug 2008, 09:34 am
Yep, I think the aussies would fancy their chances of a bonus point win against us tomorrow even more than a win against a fired-up AB’s team back in Aus next week. So tomorrow could be decisive for the aussies…
29 Aug 2008, 09:34 am
I can’t wait for tomorrow to be over. And I suspect it’ll be another Sunday trying desperately to avoid having to relive the match through the Sunday papers.
29 Aug 2008, 09:35 am
#394 SyKoPlaya:
Thx for that info on Richmark yesterday, I almost made a real doos of myself ( maybe I did ), following the wrong lead that I had picked up here on keo about that some time ago.
29 Aug 2008, 09:35 am
#396 FrenklyMuDeah: Agree with you. We really should just be united and we must be reaching out to each other. Remember united we stand tall. Divided we fall. Let be like those Barmie army Poms even if their team is getting beat the cheer, and cheer all day long for them. Lets all get behind our team on Sat.
29 Aug 2008, 09:36 am
#384 fabio:
he he, yes but some rocket scientist reckons winning is just nicer…
aaaaag but to me it doesnt matter you know, as long as rugby is the winner and and we lose graciously, heck i dont even mind if we slip down to nr 7 on the rankings, as long as our transformation targets are met and the all important coach is happy with the game plan, it really is all the sam to me…
29 Aug 2008, 09:36 am
#400 XhosaKid:
You going to Ellis Park tomorrow ?
It is not 1963 anymore.
29 Aug 2008, 09:37 am
#387 ansie:
Isn’t the French “instinctive feel” more a product of the coaches allowing the players more freedom than an inherent national DNA? That’s why, I believe the ABs have been so dominant. They encourage individual instinct but within structures. It’s a matter of walking the fine line between rigid structures, as in American Footballs play book, and encouraging the players to read each others intent and instinctively supporting it.
29 Aug 2008, 09:38 am
#401 HangkasHarry: Have a feeling we will win this one as it does not count. We wont have much pressure on us tomorrow. They will. I think they still need to win to go into Brisbane with a lead on the Ab’s but then again they have rested G. Smith so they don’t fear us at all. Hope its a big win if we do win. Thats the only way we can make it a little better for the supporters that have been let down bad this year.
29 Aug 2008, 09:38 am
#403 Pietman: Glad to help – actually did a business deal with Jake and Gavin – what really nice guys. Never chatted about rugby at all – just other stuff. Really enjoyed dealling with them.
29 Aug 2008, 09:40 am
#395 Pietman:
I’d bracket John with Porta, but otherwise that’s a poisonous backline.
29 Aug 2008, 09:40 am
#401 HangkasHarry: remember Aussies at home are still New Zealand’s biggest challenge – so it wont be easy for them
29 Aug 2008, 09:41 am
#380 SyKoPlaya: Someone needs to help him. He is out of his depth right now. Just maybe tomorrow we win. If we have been training in Durbs all week then the altitude wont help us a damn. Should have been training at altitude this week and for all of our 3N games its best to train in the highveld. It always gives you a advantage.
29 Aug 2008, 09:42 am
#406 Pietman: I will be there, I never miss a bok test or WP when they here at Ellis Park or Loftus.
29 Aug 2008, 09:43 am
#411 vindicated: Ab’s should beat the Aussies next week. Cant see them losing.
29 Aug 2008, 09:43 am
#410 David:
Thx bru, you had me up most of the night again, you know I can’t resist that kind of debate !
29 Aug 2008, 09:43 am
#400 XhosaKid:
and offcourse jantjies had a brilliant game and jacobs is the next big thing on the world stage and spies is cementing his place at 8… whatever..
rather single out the real prob;lems than to point a finger at probably the 2 best players week in and week out (schalk and juan…)
29 Aug 2008, 09:44 am
#406 Pietman: Way to go ….
So Xhosakid – where you sitting to watch the game? In the stadium or on your couch at home????
29 Aug 2008, 09:45 am
#413 XhosaKid:
What do you make of this?
http://www.mg.co.za/article/2008-08-29-keep-em-coming-barman
29 Aug 2008, 09:47 am
#410 David: would Caucau make your team?
29 Aug 2008, 09:47 am
#413 XhosaKid:
Good on you brother, don’t you look in the rear view mirror anymore, let’s go for it then, your father and mine might even be proud of us if we can forget all that nonsense of apartheid and work out a new deal for the better of us all.
Madiba will moer us both if we don’t !!!.
Take five.
29 Aug 2008, 09:48 am
#414 Puma: Its an away game though, it won’t be easy. They’ll be smart tho and keep it tight v Aus.
29 Aug 2008, 09:48 am
#416 crikey mate did you see that shark: I never rated Spies this season. Just not the same player as last year. I think when Kanko is over his injury he will go on end of year tour.
29 Aug 2008, 09:48 am
#412 Puma:
Let’s see what happens after the game – maybe he gets a DCM (Don’t Come Monday) – LOL.
29 Aug 2008, 09:50 am
#413 XhosaKid: Didn’t see this post when I made my post.
Well played Dude – good on yer!!!
29 Aug 2008, 09:50 am
#394 SyKoPlaya:
Just remember that the wheels only started coming off in SA so it’s a bit early to claim that PdeV is stubborn about asking for help.
29 Aug 2008, 09:51 am
#420 Big Hit: I think the Ab’s will want it much more than the Aussies after losing in the 1/4 of the WC last year. I will support the Ab’s all the way now that our Boks are out of it. Agree it will be a hard game but they both have smart coaches. Think Ab’s will play it tight myself. To just run it agains the Aussie side will be crazy.
29 Aug 2008, 09:53 am
#422 SyKoPlaya: Yes thats probably what will happen.
29 Aug 2008, 09:53 am
Taken From SkySports
Coach Peter de Villiers keeps faith with the remainder of the side that lost 27-15 to the Wallabies last weekend, as he continues to implement their new game plan.
“The Peter de Villiers game plan is all about adding decision-making to structure and we are stuck at the moment at decision-making,” he said.
“But I back the players and I want them to keep going out and playing what’s in front of them. The win will come because we have very good players.”
There are three changes to the bench, with Jannie du Plessis replacing Mujati, utility forward Danie Rossouw coming in for Joe van Niekerk and utility back Ruan Pienaar replacing Francois Steyn.
Steyn – and winger Bryan Habana – were not considered for the match because of injuries, Habana is nursing a hamstring strain while Steyn is suffering from concussion.
“We need to win this game for South Africa, the coaching staff and all those involved with the Boks,” said captain Victor Matfield, who passed a fitness test to play.
“We certainly don’t want to get together at the end of the year (for the tour of Europe) still asking ourselves questions about our game.
“We need to build some confidence now and ensure we take the chances we create this weekend.”
De Villiers’ team has lost four out of five matches in the Tri-Nations but haven’t lost to the Wallabies at Saturday’s venue of Johannesburg in 45 years.
29 Aug 2008, 09:53 am
Yes, the Boks are going to win tomorrow!
How do I know this? Because keo . co . za says they won’t, and we all know how accurate their predictions have been the last few weeks…
29 Aug 2008, 09:53 am
#425 Puma: I don’t think the last year’s world cup will have any bearing tbh, the ABs ran it against the Aussies and lost in their first game, SA ran it against the Aussies and lost in both games so yeah keeping it tight is the way to go, Henry has learned his lesson.
29 Aug 2008, 09:54 am
#418 Big Hit:
I don’t think he’s been consistently “great” to make the side. It’s virtually impossible to select the best of the best when there are so many options over such a large time span.
29 Aug 2008, 09:54 am
#419 Pietman: LOL!!!!
29 Aug 2008, 09:54 am
#427 SyKoPlaya: He plays JDV at 12 and expects good decisions….
29 Aug 2008, 09:55 am
#430 David: I would say he has been consistently great wherever he’s played, he just hasn’t played that many internationals.
29 Aug 2008, 09:57 am
#419 Pietman:
I’m glad to see you guys have reconciled!
That’s the spirit, I cannot wait for rugby to be truly multiracial.
29 Aug 2008, 09:57 am
#424 David: Don’t think so – the writing was on the wall with the inbound C-Team tours. The first test in NZ was confirmation, the second test was a lucky win, but played a tight game.
The home tests results is the **** that we are reaping after we planted the **** of this “head-less chicken” game plan.
29 Aug 2008, 09:58 am
#432 Big Hit: Who would you rather have at 12?
29 Aug 2008, 09:59 am
#429 Big Hit: Ab’s outplayed the Aussies though in NZ if they play like that they could win again. I think both teams will play a tight game as it will only decide the 3N in that game especially if the Aussies lose here tomorrow.
29 Aug 2008, 09:59 am
South Africans. Whilst I want the Boks to win this weekend I think you should all take stock of the impact the ELVs have had on your national side, not just the nightmare of a coach you rpesently have. If that Cape Town test showed one thing, the Durban test reinforced that lesson – the ELVs have completed disempowered the Boks and have given a dominant openside flanker a totally disproportionate influence on the game. The Richie McCaw’s of this world were previously kept in check by the fear of conceding penalties, and certain points, to teams that either had a great goal kicker like Percy, or a great lineout (i.e. if McCaw infringed outside kicking range (such that Matfield etc could claim their own throw once Percy or whoever had peeled off 50 metres territory from his boot)).
But under the ELVs? Nothing but a short arm penalty. So what is the message to McCaw or George Smith? these guys are being told – go out and give away 4 or 5 short arm penalties in the first half and at worst you’ll get a warning. So, for the likes of the All Blacks, whereas the simple equation used to be something like if McCaw gets 2 turnovers a game which lead to tried this is worth 14 points. If he concedes 2 penalties we’re short 6 points. So net NZ is up 8 points before the whistle to start the match even blows. the math under the ELVs though? He can be twice as aggresive and half as risk adverse at the breakdown. So maybe can try for 3 turnovers leading to points per match. And what is his downside? SA will not be given shots at goal to take advantage of their superior kicker. They won’t get the throw in to a lineout if they kick for touch. So all you have to do is stop them scoring a try from a free kick; and with all the respect in the world for Bok rugby this is not their strength.
So whatever the result tomorrow it seems to me that the 2007 Boks have been defeated not only by the worst coach in over a century of rugby, but also by rules which were invented by, and designed to favour, your oppnents tomorrow (who, coincidentally, are all of a sudden winning tests in the Republic…)
29 Aug 2008, 10:00 am
#404 Puma: Yip, can’t change the team can only cheer. Even if we lose at least we have biltong and don’t have to drink Fosters. Up SA
29 Aug 2008, 10:00 am
#435 SyKoPlaya:
“head-less chicken”???????
29 Aug 2008, 10:01 am
#434 WP Till I Die:
My middle name is PietVREDEman.
I even got Skopskiet and Fern to kiss each other ‘oopbek’ last night…think I am onto a new career here on keo !
29 Aug 2008, 10:01 am
Next time you think your hotel bill is too high you might want to
consider this…
A husband and wife are traveling by car from Cape Town to Musina
.After almost twenty-four hours on the road, they’re too tired to continue and
they decide to stop for a rest. They stop at a nice hotel and take a room,
but they only plan to sleep for four hours and then get back on the road
When they check out four hours later, the desk Clerk; hands them a bill
for R950.00.
The man explodes and demands to know why the charge is so high. He
tells the clerk although it’s a nice hotel, the rooms certainly aren’t worth
R950.00. When the clerk tells him R950.00 is the standard rate, the man insists on speaking to the Manager.
The Manager appears, listens to the man, and then explains that the
hotel has an Olympic-sized pool and a huge conference center that were available for the husband and wife to use.
“But we didn’t use them,” the man complains. “Well, they are here, and you could have,” explains the Manager.He goes on to explain they could have taken in one of the shows for which the hotel is famous. “The best entertainers from Jhb, Cape Town , and Dbn perform here,”
the Manager says.
“But we didn’t go to any of those shows,” complains the man
again.”Well, we have them, and you could have,” the Manager replies.
No matter what amenity the Manager mentions, the man replies, “But we
didn’t use it!”
The Manager is unmoved, and eventually the man gives up and agrees to
pay.
He writes a cheque and gives it to the Manager.
The Manager is surprised when he looks at the cheque . “But sir,” he
says, “this cheque is only made out for R250.00.”
“That’s correct,” says the man. “I charged you R700.00 for sleeping
with my wife.”
“But I didn’t!” exclaims the Manager.
“Well, too bad,” the man replies. “She was here and you could have.”
29 Aug 2008, 10:02 am
#436 shark_time: Someone who can make breaks but is prepared to send it wide if need be. Any one of Steyn, Grant, Pienaar or Jacobs would be a better option with JDV playing on the wing.
29 Aug 2008, 10:02 am
#432 Big Hit: JdV should be at #13 or out on the wing. Mallett picked him at #13 in his first test against France wherein he injured his shoulder after about 2 mins.
Fransie Steyn should be a #12 until his decision making improves – until then either James or Grant needs to be at #10.
If ruan would get his head around playing at #10 – he would solve a number of difficulties for us. He reads the game well and obviously can pass well both ways as well as having a good boot.
29 Aug 2008, 10:03 am
Cant wait for the game in Brisbane! Should be a cracker for the neutral!
29 Aug 2008, 10:03 am
#435 SyKoPlaya: Agree with you there. This daft gameplan is just ruining our rugby. We probably will win tomorrow as it at altitude and some Aussies have been rested. So win tomorrow for us does not redeem PdV in my mind with how he handled a daft gameplan with such great players. Just watch us get huge big hiding in the NH too. As I think he will take a very young team there. We should always take our best.
29 Aug 2008, 10:04 am
#438 Buck:
You’re quite right on a number of points. However, the 3N, is the last time these short arm free kicks will be the norm.
29 Aug 2008, 10:04 am
#438 Buck:
Excellent analysis there.
I like the ELVs, but I do feel that it is essential that the stance from referees is changed. I think referees need to be much stricter on ruck infringements, warnings and yellow cards should be par for the course for guys like Richie. You’ve got to go and say, look, if you infringe at the ruck you only give away a short-arm, but if you continue doing this you’ll be sent off. It has to be a balanced approach.
29 Aug 2008, 10:04 am
#441 Pietman:
Ek onthou ek het daai rol probeer speel, so ‘n jaar of so terug hier op keo…
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