‘Madness to drop Schalk’
18 May 2009
Jake White believes statistics don’t reveal Schalk Burger’s true value to the Springboks.
Heinrich Brüssow made his Bok debut off the bench in last year’s 42-6 hiding over England at Twickenham, while Burger had been at his irrepressible best – especially on defence – for the full 80.
Before Saturday’s final round of Super 14 fixtures however, Cheetahs opensider Brüssow had better numbers when compared to Bok incumbent Burger.
The statistics show that Brüssow has bettered Burger in areas such as the tackle and breakdown, but White believes statistics don’t tell the entire story as a team that is forced to make more tackles would inflate a player’s stats in this regard.
Brüssow had made 205 and missed just 30 tackles in 903 minutes of rugby (before the final round), compared to Burger’s 116 completed and 35 slipped in 774 minutes.
‘You don’t pick rugby teams based only on stats,’ White told The Sunday Times. ‘The tackle-count stats are only relevant if the opposing teams are making a similar number of tackles. Brüssow made 25 tackles against the Bulls, out of 237 tackles by the Cheetahs, which is massive. But look at the amount of defending his team was forced to do.
‘Tackles missed is a more vital stat, and if the difference is marginal, then what’s the big deal? The reality is that Schalk Burger can tackle and he has made 25 tackles in a Test before, so why are we suddenly concerned he won’t do it again?’
At the breakdown, the Cheetahs flank had forced 24 turnovers compared to Burger’s three, while the former had hit 80 rucks compared to Burger’s 52. Brüssow has conceded nine turnovers and 18 handling errors, compared to 15 and 22 respectively from Burger.
In a likely Bok loose-trio of Burger, Juan Smith and Pierre Spies the Boks would then have five lineout options – an area that is expected to be crucial in the Lions series – and here Burger edges the shorter Brüssow.
Burger has won eight set-pieces compared to Brüssow’s one and has also fielded four kick-offs to one. Burger has passed 102 times to Brüssow’s 65, as well as having more offloads – nine to seven.
These statistics for the Super 14 may point to a case for starting Brüssow against the Lions, but White is amazed this is even being contemplated.
‘Schalk is the best rugby player I’ve ever coached,’ he said. ‘The reason for that is simple — he’s the difference between winning and losing Test matches. Any guy who has that ability — a Jonah Lomu or a Jonny Wilkinson — has to be in your side.
‘That kind of player, who when he plays ensures the team is vastly better than when he doesn’t play, is special. Burger is that guy. He is the kind of player coaches can’t do without,’ said the former Bok coach.
‘Why would you want to drop a 1.93m, 49-Test veteran who’s won a junior and senior World Cup and is only 26, for a player with one Test cap in the most important series in the last decade?
‘Is dropping a player going to change the team or improve the team? If it’s the former, then why do it? If the answer is the latter, then it’s the right move.
‘Can we honestly say that at Test level dropping Schalk Burger will improve the team?’
385 Comments
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18 May 2009, 16:55 pm
#153 cab:
Points well made.
Matfeild is not ONLY there because of his lineout superiority. His leadership and respect is essential and he has good pace for a big man. That allows him to play a similar role to Ali Williams in that he has the scope to play a bit looser, allowing Bakkies to hit all the rucks and keep the fringe defence solid and niggle opposition. They are extremely complementary in their roles, 1 allowing the other to express themselves in their strength.
As for the back-3 balance, you make the point about Spies being a wonderful talent, fast etc. Yep. All very well if SA was playing someone less structured – France, Wales, NZ – where he would get the ability to show those talents with barnstorming runs. But this is a Lions series, and it will be highly attritional, small margins and lots on hits around the fringe and making inches. Burger is magnificent at this, tackles are not only made but damaging. I have seen Spies show his wonderful athleticism – yes, running the ball in from 50m when it was kicked directly in to his hands with no cover D – but Ive also seen when the Bulls have played forward-oriented teams like Highlanders and Sharks, where Spies has disappeared for patches. Especially in the 1st Test vs Lions, this will be what they face from the Lions. And Boks cant afford for any player to disappear.
No, I would not drop Burger because he is an immense Test player. I would most definitely investigate his worth at no8 but PdV certainly isnt thinking that way because you would have already seen it trialled by Stormers like Smit has been at TH for Sharks.
Boks need a fetcher desperately for the proper balance in that backrow because it will only take 1 turnover to get an advantage. I would have Burger (or Roussow actually) at no8, Smith at 6 (in the NZ role of blindisde, not left’n'right like SA tends to play) and then I would pick the best player on the deck who is also a good link man. If it was only that latter role, then I would consider Watson. But I think he needs to be as far away from the squad as possible. Especially for the 1st 2 Tests (because, lets face it, if its 1-1 then you just select ANYONE, whether its a distraction or not). I dont know who is best to fill that no7 role, Brussow seems to get alot of votes. But I just think Smith/Burger/Spies are all too similar. And that hands the Lions, thru Williams, a small advantage.
The wonderful thing about any 3match Series, is that it allows each team to react to the others in their selection. Therefore PdV will not unearth any surprises and go with the tried and trusted for 1st Test. But you only need to look at any Series to see that there can often be vast changes between the team of 1st Test to 3rd Test. Therefore because Brussow probably wont be selected for 1st Test, that in no way means that PdV is so stubborn as to stand by a loose-fwd combination if theyre not performing. I recall Frank Shelford (no, not Buck) absolutely monstering the midweek 1981 Boks playing for the NZ Maori, this after the 2nd Test. He was brought in to the AB squad immediately and played a blinder in the 3rd Test victory.
The lucky fringe players out there are the ones who will play the Lions in tour matches, so keeping in the selectors minds.
I reckon the Boks should wipe the Lions whoever they select, quite frankly. But its ALL on the mood set in the 1st Test and the Lions will not be trying anything fancy. Geech will know there will be some nerves in the Bok camp so wont want to make it easy for them.
If it was up to me:-
BJ Botha Smit Beast
Victor Bakkies
Smith Burger Brussow (?)
Du Preez
Pienaar
JdV Jacobs
Habana Steyn JPP
But I think we all know it will be:-
Smit Bismarck Beast
Victor Bakkies
Smith Spies Burger
Du Preez
Pienaar
JdV Jacobs
Habana Steyn/Kirschner JPP.
Both teams superior to anything Lions can select.
I rated Heinke prior to injury. All selections fall in behind the Tight-5 as far as Im concerned, the selection of Smit at TH to accomodate Bismarck at no2 is a complete nonsense. If Lions dont in some way capitalise on that, then theyre not as smart as I give Geech credit for being.
Also admit to thinking the best SA outside back on display this season as been Olivier. My original selection incuded him, he’s been in uber-hot form. But JdV is class and I think, with greater clarity, Jacobs complements JdV better than Olivier would. Its all about combinations really.
18 May 2009, 16:57 pm
#348 justrugby:
perhaps pdv would like to have luke in the squad but then he would lose his captain.
i think pdv feels smit’s leadership is more important than luke’s playing ability.
18 May 2009, 17:01 pm
#340 catleya: Good points,I do not agree with all of them though…. you perhaps a scummie ?? only joking !!!
18 May 2009, 17:02 pm
#352 charo: Yip, in fact I think you are 100% correct.
18 May 2009, 17:03 pm
As PDV die BL en 3N wil wen, moet hy na my mening die volgende 3 stappe volg:
1. bou die bokspan om die Bulls
2. kry HM as sy konsultant, en omrede punt 1 (soos White vir Jones gebruik het)
3. hou Lukas Kotze so ver as moontlik weg van ‘n groen trui.
As hy hierdie eenvoudige 3 punt plan volg, sal die res vanself gebeur.
18 May 2009, 17:06 pm
#300 NZMaori:
On the contrary, Im looking fwd to the day when I dont have to listen to Foxys nasal tones, or that bl**dy IDIOT Stu Wilson trying oh so hard to be funny every time he opens his mouth. Id rather listen to Matt Goddard (er, no I wouldnt, but you get what I mean….). Muzza Mexted tries a bit too hard to be funny too. But Puma likes him, so he gets a pass mark where Wilson most certainly does NOT.
I would far rather listen to someone like Phil Kearns who knows his stuff than S.Wilson or Nisbo. Jon Preston is OK, but the other Kiwis are a shambles. We’re simply a nation of great rugby players but who cant string more than 2 words together without sounding like the Waikato farmers we really are.
18 May 2009, 17:08 pm
#355 BDB – Free Bakkies & JP !:
Jong, jy is weer te slim vandag, lol!
Wat gebeur in Deben, met die tugondersoek?
18 May 2009, 17:15 pm
#351 BlackPanther:
Nice post, like your thinking.
yes that is true on Matfield, he does offer more than lineout ability alone, he is very quick and athletic for a big man, also surprising rugby savvy, but he’s a lock not a flyhalf. mobility is needed with the ELVs, but numbers and effectiveness at the breakdown is all-important. Matfield does not have the clean-out agression of a tightforward, Williams offers more in this respect.
Yes, i agree with your selection thoughts for the Lions series and wondering if Spies will be useful in that sort of game. As I say i like your idea of Burger at 8, the other option is Rossouw in that sort of contest (as you mentioned later down), which with Juan Smit made up the balance for the RWC. However, the SA public generally no longer want these supposed dinosaurs, they want pinball wizards.
If matfield is chosen along with a non-specialist TH, then for pack balance, burger and smith are non-negotiables.
Then its a question of whether to go for someone best on the deck (brussouw/watson) or an attacking ballrunner like Spies to get over the adv line with the 5m scrum ELV, which so many top teams use with Palu at the Tahs and Luaki at the Chiefs.
I think your differentiation between a deckman and a linkman is also spot on, watson performs all roles well, he carries exceptionally well too esp for his size, but his main strength is his linking and anticipation. Brussow and Stegman are better at playing right too the ball and on the deck imo.
Your team is a very good one with BJ at TH and Brussouw at openside and Burger at 8, in fact its probably better than the one that will be selected, but who knows the wee maestro has proved us all wrong before, it could be a record drilling.
18 May 2009, 17:16 pm
#319 eish shibobo:
Surely youre not a Safa ?! Dont let BokFan1 or Whatever read what youve just written, you’ll be charged with TREASON !
I agree with you almost 100%.
What I will say that, despite given a reasonable impression of an idiot, that PdV has chosen a team last year that is going to play with a much wider ambit. Jacobs at centre a prime example, far more attacking than Fourie and running different angles. And Pienaar at no10 is far less structured than Butcher James. I suppose he also sees Smit and Beast at props as being slightly more adventurous than normal too, altho I most certainly dont agree with Smit at TH. But the intention to change is clear. And by ‘change’, he wants a threat from more angles.
Certainly taking Carisbrook as the example, I hadnt seen the Boks play that open style since Mallets teams. Far far more dangerous than just playing the normal forward-dominant, counter-attacking Bok style. And alot harder to beat.
18 May 2009, 17:16 pm
#357 Pietman: Bakkies het nou net vir mnr. Govender met ‘n plat hand weggestoot, nadat laasgenoemde aanstoot geneem het, toe Bakkies sy brandewyn bottel van hom wou wegstoot. JP het as Bakkies se
(ge)regsverteenwoordiger, tot Bakkies se verdediging opgekom, en wou Govender net wegstoot, maar ongelukkig bietjie te hoog ingegaan en sonder arms … hy leer nie.
Govender het glo harsingskudding.
Daar moet nou eers weer besluit word of die laaste twee insedente uitgewys gaan word, voor 12 uur.
Ek vermoed dit is waarom die uitslag so lank vat om uit te kom … maar om op te som: daar is nou ‘n groot gestootery aan die gang.
18 May 2009, 17:26 pm
#349 tight head:
Skoppie, the point I am making is that you need to lighten up on your crusade against the WC players.
Most of the players you would select for the Lions series are WC players.
Because when we all cut out the B/S and get down to it, they are our base of experience, and are vital to the strength of our rugby.
18 May 2009, 17:39 pm
Bakkies onskuldig … soos altyd !
18 May 2009, 18:13 pm
#347
If I were SARU I would use the Coastal team vs BL match to give some youngsters a look in under Alan Solomons. It is the ideal opportunity, especially seeing as they haven’t yet published a team.
Here is my team, purely on what I believe to be objective merit- no affirmative action quotas or anything, just the best two guys per position in SA in the position their teams play them in.
1. Heinke vd Merwe/Coenie Oosthuizen
2. Adriaan Strauss/Derek Kuun
3. Werner Kruger/Patrick Cilliers
4. Steven Sykes/Adriaan Fondse
5. Wilhelm Steenkamp/Alistair Hargreaves
6. Heinrich Brussouw/Deon Stegmann
7. Dewald Potgieter/Jean Deysel
8. Willem Alberts/Duanne Vermeulen
9. Jano Vermaak/Rory Kockott
10.Burton Francis/Ricardo Croy
11.Jongi Nokwe/Gerard vd Heever
12.Meyer Bosman/Morgan Newman
13.Dylan Desfountain/JW Jonker
14.Luzuko Vulindhlu/Bjorn Basson
15.Zane Kirchner/Louis Ludick
18 May 2009, 18:55 pm
sadly madness is endemic at sarfu…
18 May 2009, 19:43 pm
Schalk has never been the same after the injury to his neck and it seems he is always protecting it.Luke way better and Schalk injury in this super 14 actualy a blessing in disguise for stormers as they started to perform better without him.
We should play Watson who has more experience then Brussow and have Brussow on the bench.Schalk not even in match 22.
18 May 2009, 19:58 pm
I don’t think they were the best team at the world cup.You should just look at their record against Australia and the all blacks in 2007,2006,2005 and 2008.It really doesn’t require a brain surgeon to figure that out.
18 May 2009, 19:59 pm
Its not only about size, but the fact of the matter is that in the professional era it counts a helluva lot.
You can go on about heart til the cows come home, fact of the matter is muhammad ali is going to beat sugar ray robinson 9 times of out 10, not because ali had more heart or technique, but because he is a heavywight and robinson is a middleweight.
The players are getting bigger and faster, skill and heart are pre-requisites at that level, but the players are becoming more and more freakisk, rugby will eventually move the way of American Football with more and more conditioning. Perhaps this is unfortunate, but the amateur era was a totally different kettle of fish. You might not like Jonah Lomu and see him as some sort of bully, fact of the matter is he was hugely effectively, not only in the number of tries he scored but also in the number of oppo that were committed to him freeing up his teammates.
Rugby is a nice game because it often has space for all body shapes, but a huge part of the game is physical. Christian Cullen is often cited as an example of a small guy, that is fine, but its widely known that cullen was immensely strong.
Technique will improve and the props will get bigger and stronger, the backs bigger and the wing bigger and faster.
One saw conditioning really ushered in with the english under woodward, the aussies also use it to great effect, the kiwis were also way ahead of us until fairly recently.
18 May 2009, 20:05 pm
It’s my opinion, so it doesn’t count.
Brussouw is the outstanding loose forward in SA right now. He is only challenged by Juan Smith.
You can’t win the game without the ball. Brussouw wins tons of ball. And he slows the opposition ball down (making it harder for them to win). He tackles like a dervish.
Scale Vs Skill.
McCaw/Brussouw vs Burger.
Fetcher vs Frankenstein scary.
Balance vs Power.
Brussouw, Smith, Spies. Watson on bench.
(The lineout theory is a red herring – Bakkies, Matfield, Smith are enough primary jumpers for 2 teams. Spies at the back).
18 May 2009, 20:06 pm
#367 cab: Howzit. I knew you would love this thread.
18 May 2009, 20:14 pm
#368 SodaJoe:
Watson, Vermeulen and Pieter Louw beat them Scholtz, Smith, Broussow hands down on Saturday, they got so flabbergasted by his superior dominance throughout the game they tried to take his head off on the touch line,
and its not the first time the Stormers loosies have handed the favored Cheetahs loosies a hiding, we did it before a few times in the past couple years, check the results in recent encounters.
Same Free State Cheetahs that had the Bulls gasping for air and the Sharks obliterated got handed a lesson by the mediocre Stormers loosies at home in Bloem, led, yip LED by Pariah Watson.
18 May 2009, 20:28 pm
#361 tight head:
TH would be your call, BJ or CJ or Steenkamp (I think he’s a LH anyway) or Carstens, not my field of expertise.
Wings as before Habana and JPP, though I would be itching to try Nokwe, just too much risk attached against BL straight off the bat, defense is suspect though on attack he is superior to Habana.
Fourie – (Kirchner)
JPP
Jacobs
JdV
Habana
Grant – (M.Steyn/Pienaar)
FdP – (Vermaak)
Spies
Smith (c)
Watson – (Burger/Brussow)
Matfield – (Bekker/Roussouw)
Botha
CJ
Bismark – (Smit/Liebenberg)
Beast – (Steenkamp)
There’s my run on team, bench options you can mix or match with the four either/or’s as you see fit or as game style dictates.
18 May 2009, 20:32 pm
To those knocking Schalk, perhaps you would like to watch the re-runs of the first and second matches against NZ in the Tri-Nations 2008, one of which was SA’s first win in Dunedin. The guy was everywhere, incredible. He was then injured by Bakkies Botha against Australia.
The Lions are coming to take it to the Boks physically, they’ll pick a huge pack with bigger men across the board and SA will need players who can stop them on the gainline.
Schalk is that big game player.
18 May 2009, 20:43 pm
#361 tight head:
What most people get wrong is that they seem to ascribe certain players to certain coaches.
Burger, Smith, Matfield, Botha, Roussouw, Van Niekerk, Smit, CJ, JdV, Montgomery, James, Pretorius, Paulse, quite a few others, were all used by Streauli and some even by Viljoen before him.
The difference is how the coach utilizes and combines the talents brought forward into his stable as a combined unit, this is what makes a good coach from a bad one.
All the youngsters, Spies, Pienaar, F. Steyn, M.Steyn, Ndungane’s, Olivier, FdP, Grant, Beast, Bekker, were coached by PdV to successful age group titles, so what makes a particular player more representative of a particular coach’s style, nothing at all, it is a case of which coach can get the optimum out of the combined facets of talents available to him, and invariably he is not the originator or the creator of such talent, only the caretaker and mentor for the period that such talent is ‘loaned’ to him.
18 May 2009, 20:53 pm
#372 Big Hit:
Burger is a wrecking ball, that about sums up his attributes, game breaking a play making are not his strengths, if all we are about is to wreck the oppositions offenses with supreme defensive attrition then that is what we pride as our strength and not in taking the game to the opposition.
Burger, Smith and Spies (Kankowski off bench) played in Perth, Cape Town and Durban as the loose trio in 2008 and we lost badly 3 times, should never have lost at home. James and FdP were the half backs too.
Same loose trio played against Wales in EOYT and Powell Jones and Williams showed them all a clean pair of heels throughout the game running them ragged round the scrum fringes.
It has to be Burger or Smith for No.7 or else switch Spies or Watson to bench and bring in Van Niekerk at 8, but if we play the same one dimensional loose trio of Spies, Smith Burger again and again we’ll get picked off like ripe cherry’s every time.
18 May 2009, 21:08 pm
#372 Big Hit: You are bang on. Schalk will raise his game. He has a reputtation for being a bad trainer and to certain extent the S14 could be the same for him this year. The Stormers have been terrible. He needs to play with better players.
18 May 2009, 21:14 pm
Front row is a concern for SA.. There are good props in heinke Van Der Merwe, Guthro Steenkamp and CFJ Van der Linder. These dudes will not be picked..
Beasts is great in hte loose but he is poor in the tight. I am a Beast fan though..
18 May 2009, 21:43 pm
#374 eish shibobo: yes, that backrow trio were penalised out of the game by the referees leading to PDV’s complaints to Paddy O’Brien.
Burger in particular was reffed out of the home game against NZ, just like he was against Wales and Scotland on the EOYT.
If Boks are looking to play a wide game like NZ 2005 I agree they’ll need a fetcher but they’ll also need a player like Schalk to bring the physicality. Maybe Burger or Watson should play at 8.
19 May 2009, 01:20 am
#356 BlackPanther: agree
stu wilson is pathetic, as are nisbo and tony johnson.
preston is spot on. great insight. foxy i dont mind that much as he provides insight too, but i can understand why many dont like him.
mexted is just for the goof factor, but occasionaly he provides some insight that is great.
jason o’halloran was good too when he did a few stints.
i quite enjoy the oz triplets of kearns, greg & greg. very refreshing, and in a way their model is not to commentate like they are doing radio commentary like the way the sky nz hasbeens do, they call the shots and give insights like you would hear when watching game with a bunch of mates with some beers. its entertainment compared to stating the facts and the rules ad naaseum*.
19 May 2009, 07:31 am
#373 eish shibobo:
Skoppie this post is good rugby sense from you.
In the light of that, all I am asking is for you to be less critical of some of these Bok players, for the very reasons that you have raised here.
19 May 2009, 07:42 am
#378 Tomsta: you serious, kearns greg and greg … please Greg Martin is the most one eyed, unknowledgable caller of the game of rugby I have ever heard … he is ridiculous!!
19 May 2009, 20:55 pm
i think we all know schalkie is monster in the green and gold ..and i noticed a cgange during last years EOYT when some welsh guy grabbed schalk and instead of schalk trying to pummel him ,he actually walked away (he’s growing up) as for brussow all those tackles ,he has to make them,the chettahs are forced to make a lot of tackles and thts why brussow looks like he’s a machine..burger on the other hand is a tried an tested springbok with tow world cups !!!!! he’s not know as the incredible schalk for nothing
20 May 2009, 11:36 am
#359 BlackPanther: Hahahaha Im glad to see Im in your thoughts and you’re looking over your shoulder!
Judging by his/her nick, I would think “Eish Shibobo” must be a Saffa. I have no problem with the expression of the opinions, some of the insulting language was not necessary, but its an emotive subject…
Although posting outlandish unrealistic “I know better than anyone” type comments like “I can guarantee you I would never have lost 49-0 ever” makes me think he/she might be a kiwi…
Do you think Jake ever thought he would lose a game by that margin?!
Instead of belittling of Jake for having a defensive approach and calling Eddie Jones to help with attacking, you should praise him for being introspective and humble enough to realise he needed some additional input.
You forget very quickly the good times that Jake brought back to SA rugby under very difficult conditions
20 May 2009, 13:06 pm
#363 catleya: Or maybe Joe Pieterson as 15?
20 May 2009, 13:10 pm
#382 bokfan1: Did you dead the Jake White Autobiography? He states clearly that it was his own decision to push SARU for a contract extension, as well as his threat to go to coach England, that made his players feel abandoned by him. He was abandoning them, so they abandoned him in the 49-0 game. That goes to show how important the group mentality is.
It is an indictment on Jake that he did not understand how this would affect his players. It also does not say a lot about the professionalism of the group (they were pretty inexperienced then anyway though) or about John Smit’s captaincy, but those were the facts. That game was about politics, not about rugby strategy or selections.
20 May 2009, 13:45 pm
#384 SjamBok: Ja I do own his book sjambok
And you raise some good points on those situations… there are replies to your points like, he was simply job-searching and he wouldn’t have left the Boks immediately, so why should players feel abandoned and so on… but who knows what the truth is…
it does say a lot about our boytjies in Green & Gold though and the man that John Smit is. Thats why coaches come and go, but we all love the players forever, hey?
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