Preview: All Blacks vs Wallabies
18 Sep 2009
Keo.co.za previews the Tri-Nations friendly in Wellington.
Non-events. You have to hate them. And nowhere in world sport is there a bigger non-event than the one being played in Wellington on Saturday.
The Springboks, with their title-grabbing victory in Hamilton last week, ensured that the only people who have a vested interest in the final Tri-Nations fixture are optimistic Aussies hoping to see their stuttering, yet talented side put one over the old enemy, and disgruntled Blacks fans (yes the thousands of you in Cape Town are included in this bunch) who will be hoping their side doesn’t slip even further into the abyss.
With nothing to play for, you’d expect it to be an open game with the ball seeing plenty of air. However, both sides’ desperation to finish their campaigns with a victory could result in a far more conservative pattern, although this is unlikely, particularly for the Blacks, who’ve shown a distinct lack of appreciation for playing the percentages throughout the tournament.
Given both sides’ penchant for a ball-in-hand attack, there’ll be an emphasis on setting an attacking platform through set-phase, tackle-point and breakdown dominance.
The Blacks’ scrum failed to trouble the Springboks in Hamilton in the manner the Wallabies had the previous week in Brisbane, and they’ll be second best against a unit who have made exponential improvements in this facet of play over the last two years.
There’s also no reason to believe that the Blacks will remedy their lineout woes in a week, despite drafting Tom Donnelly into their second row in favour of the Matfield-scarred Isaac Ross. Blacks hooker Andrew Hore will be relieved that he isn’t faced with the prospect of having to negotiate the Springbok lineout maestro, but in the Aussie lock duo of James Horwill and Mark Chisholm he and his jumpers still face formidable opponents, who will ensure that their lineout struggles continue.
Robbed of decent set-phase ball I can’t see the Blacks winning this one, even in their backyard. Unless, of course, the Wallabies kick poorly, feeding a dangerous back division with opportunities to attack from broken field.
As mentioned earlier, tackle-point and breakdown dominance will be crucial to the outcome. Blacks skipper Richie McCaw will always be a force in the latter aspect, but he will be up against two of the game’s finest breakdown exponents in George Smith and David Pocock. Their potency will be amplified by their team-mates’ ability to impose themselves on defence, something the Wallabies were adept at in their victory over the Springboks a fortnight ago and which the Blacks failed to do in Hamilton.
A quick recycle is crucial to the success on an expansive game plan and even the mercurial flyhalf Dan Carter cannot craft scoring opportunities when his service is being stifled. This holds true for both sides, but the Wallabies have a 10-12 axis in Matt Giteau and Berrick Barnes to revert to a territorial game if they need to, where the Blacks will rely almost entirely on Carter in this regard.
If the Wallabies can avoid being suckered into trying to replicate the expansive game the Blacks are expected to play, and mimic the Springboks’ measured but highly effective approach (bearing in mind that they will have to make certain adjustments given that they don’t have the quality of player to copy it completely) there’s no reason they won’t win against the most limited All Blacks side in a decade.
Prediction: Wallabies by 7
New Zealand - 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Isaia Toeava, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Joe Rokocoko, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c),6 Adam Thomson, 5 Tom Donnelly,4 Brad Thorn, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Aled de Malmanche, 17 John Afoa, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Rodney So’oialo, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Hosea Gear.
Wallabies – 15 James O’Connor, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Will Genia, 8 George Smith (c), 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 James Horwill, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Subs: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 Pek Cowan, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 Wycliff Palu, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Quade Cooper, 22 Peter Hynes.
By Ryan Vrede
182 Comments
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18 Sep 2009, 11:39 am
#96 bananaboy: I said this the other day, considering its 9 games between the two in almost 80 games, shows how close it is… I was fortunate to be brought up with the SA/NZ rivalry as the top echelon of world rugby, still is in my opinion… bledisloe doesnt carry the same weight with me, though still nice, stops the cabinet from echoing lol
18 Sep 2009, 11:42 am
#97 Vetkoek: Vetkoek, agree would luv to see our nations touring each other again. Imagine a series against the AB’s and how much interest that would generate in other countries let alone in NZ or SA.- like B&I Lions series did.
Also the midweek games would give the opportunity to develop your second string and your bench. Only problem is that there are a lot more countries playing rugby so it has gone the way of football with friendlies etc.
18 Sep 2009, 11:47 am
No I have to watch it.
Need to see who ends 3rd.
Aussies will be frustrated; Kiwis devastated.
18 Sep 2009, 11:54 am
#90 captain fantail:
ah, cap’n fanny has decided to surface, almost as rare as the lesser-spotted kiwi, i feel honored to have made such a rare sighting on the back of an AB loss, now we just need his main mucker Hurricane, and its well and truly a lucky find.
18 Sep 2009, 12:29 pm
from rugbyheaven
“THE All Blacks pack began trying to psyche out their opponents yesterday, warning that if the Wallabies scrum wasn’t careful, another Test prop would be heading back to club football.”
18 Sep 2009, 12:30 pm
and the war of words continue
“ALL BLACKS fullback Mils Muliaina has offered advice to his opposite James O’Connor that the best way to prepare for taking high balls in the swirling Wellington winds is to keep the hotel curtains closed tomorrow morning.”
18 Sep 2009, 12:41 pm
As an aside, which Griquas players do you think will make the Cheetahs S14 squad?
Sarel Pretorius, Naas Olivier, Trompie Nontshinga, Riaan Viljoen…
But the forwards? Props? Locks? Loosies?
Will Mokuena get looked over again?
18 Sep 2009, 13:09 pm
Hi there All
Just popped in for a few minutes to read the latest happenings at keo.
Have enjoyed the celebrations of late, surrounding our champion Bok team.
Ryan’s not really wrong when he suggests tomorrow is a bit of a dead-rubber game, cos I think he’s referring to the general South African perspective on the game.
And quite frankly, if you look at the polls about tomorrow’s game, there seems to be an overwhelming feeling of “who cares”.
Well, ordinarily I’d say that I don’t care either, but actually I do. And why do I care?
Simple, because I absolutely detest the Wallabies, and would like them to realise that their one lone Tri Nations win over the Boks was just that – a backs to the wall fight from a desperate bunch, who simply HAD TO save themselves from the gallows. And did so against the world’s best team (that is praiseworthy, I will concede).
But I cannot help but wonder just how “into that game” the Boks were. From the kickoff they just seemed to be tired or lethargic and despite only being 3 points adrift at the break, they didn’t seem to be too interested in getting stuck in after halftime.
Much like the interest or enthusiasm shown by an elephant when challenged by a mouse!!!
C’mon now folks – we’d already “DONE” the whinging wallabies by then, and were already focussed on tying things up in Hamilton, against our traditional, real rivals – the world number 2 All Blacks.
So the wannabees got themselves a lifeline. Tell someone who cares. One Tri Nations win in 7 (it’ll be 8 tomorrow!) is hardly enough to suggest a recovery of any kind!!
So go Richie, Dan & the Boys of the Silver Fern. As World Number Ones, we prefer you guys as our “wingmen” to the arrogant australians.
And all my fellow Keonians – the real big game of the year awaits us at Croke Park in Dublin fair city on 28th November – when the 6 Nations Champs go head to head with the Tri Nations champs – World Number 4 against World Number 1!!
What a juicy prospect.
Who do you think will be the conquerors in THAT clash???
18 Sep 2009, 13:17 pm
I hate the Irish! Ok, fate got back at O’Gara so maybe I can finally forgive him. I feel the Irish contingent caused a lot of animousity during the Lions tour. Will be a tough tour, France too!
18 Sep 2009, 13:18 pm
Actually, thinking about it….. Doesn’t say much for the 6 Nations that the 2nd and 3rd placed Tri Nations teams are higher ranked than the 6N champs in the world rankings.
Hardly a position of prestige for our friends in the NH.
Could THAT be the reason for the IRB’s jaundiced and rabid hatred of the Souther Hemisphere Giants – especially SA!!
After all, the pale faces of the North cannot mete out ANY suffering or punishment against the TNS teams on the field of play…….so they take their jealous fury out on us in the boardrooms and at the judicial hearings and when dishing out instructions to their large crop of mostly incompetent referees and touch judges!
18 Sep 2009, 13:25 pm
#106 Lions_Soutie: Hey there Lions_Soutie. Can’t say I agree with you mate. I was WITH the Lions team throughout their tour (was involved with their commercial programme, so saw them all day every day) – and I can safely inform you that it was not the Irishmen who caused any animosity. In fact, they’re really great guys. O’Connell, O’Driscoll, Tommy Bowe, Donncha O’Callaghan, Lukie Fitgerald and the other Irish boys were really good guys.
Unfortunately – if I were forced to identify any less than nice guys, it would have to be a few of the Welshmen and the English in the squad. Not all – just some – but THEY are the ones who still remind one of the Colonialist days, if any!!!
18 Sep 2009, 13:27 pm
#93 mshiniwami: What a load of bulldust. I’ve been reading the Aussie rugby websites religiously for a couple of years now and have seen none of this “Aussie hype on their limited resources player wise plus over stating his own SUPERIORITY”. The fact is that we know we are playing with a smaller pool of players than SA and NZ, because our best athletes are going into Aussie-rules and NRL. If those players were going straight into rugby union you lot would be stuffed. That isn’t likely to happen though unless something drastic changes, because if anything Aussie-rules is on the rise.
Having said that your good results this year seem to have blinded you to the fact that Aus have scored some good results against you in recent times. Maybe we haven’t won the Trinations for a fair while, but in the last 10 years you’ve come last more than we have. In the history of the tournament we’ve lost only one game more than your lot, having played one game less. Given the restriction Aussie rugby operates under (no national comp for one thing), that’s pretty bloody good. Take away your domestic comps, knock your player numbers down a bit and let’s see how well you do.
18 Sep 2009, 13:45 pm
#63 captain fantail:
#65 poppa69:
You guys seem to think that I said that I do this every year. Well I didn’t. This is a nice change from the usual.
18 Sep 2009, 13:46 pm
#109 SJonesIsAGit:
SA has hardly scraped its potential neither.Its well documented that even though our rugby structures are strong,we are only operating out of possibly 4/5 million of a population of 48 million.So harp on about the NRL/Aussie Rules taking all the talent yada yada yada,every country has its restrictions and those claims are not absolute at all.
Year after year OZ is the nation with the biggest hype around their team/youngsters etc etc,your media is to your dentiment at present as they create unreasonable/unsustainable expectations.A few years ago OZ had the most dynamic back division,back talent pool with likes of Tune,Roff,Burke,Larkham etc etc
Look barren at present and doesnt look to be letting up neither.Most promising player from age group are Matt Toomua and Richard Kingie…And they look a tad bit on the small side for Test footy.Much like Beale the predecessor.
Hype machine Oz
18 Sep 2009, 14:00 pm
#113 mshiniwami: “Every country has its restrictions”, yes, but some restrictions are far more telling than others. They are far from equal. Compare SA’s restrictions to those of Japan, for instance.
And I still think your claims of Aussie media hype are bollocks. We back our players to do well against all comers. They often do. We get disappointed when they don’t. We get excited by new prospects. We get excited to see our team do well. None of that excitement comes close to the frenzy of saffas about every minute aspect of their team.
18 Sep 2009, 14:07 pm
#109 SJonesIsAGit: \
From the IRB Website.
Total Number of Registered Players:
SA ……511,000
Japan….122,000
England..698,000
Scotland..32,000
NZ…….139,000
Oz……..82,000
Australia does extremely well given there talent pool.
SA on the other hand, have player depth, greater than Scotland, Oz, Japan, Samoa, Fiji and NZ combined.
Why they strut like Kings (well JC and Ryan do anyway)is beyond me.
Same as Big Hits Mob. They lose to Scotland. Every Jock Rugby Player is out numbered 21 to 1 by the Anglo/Normans.
Gives new meaning to Scotland the Brave.
18 Sep 2009, 14:19 pm
#113 cane: you can easily add 50 000 players available to NZ if you add in Fiji (think Sivivatu), Tonga (think Lomu) and Samoa (Jones).
18 Sep 2009, 14:22 pm
#113 cane: Cane, much harder to get the selection right when you have so much to choose from.
18 Sep 2009, 14:24 pm
#112 SJonesIsAGit:
“None of that excitement comes close to the frenzy of saffas about every minute aspect of their team.’
WTF??? Are you sure?? Kafer,Smithie,Kearnsy???Zaparo(planet-rugby guys etc)
Hype CENTRAL
18 Sep 2009, 14:25 pm
For What it’s worth. My 3N All Stars team: (so far).
1. Woodcock.NZ
2. Bismark.SA
3. Beast.SA
4. Matfield.SA
5. Bakkies.SA
6. Rocky.OZ
7. Ritchie.NZ
8. Spies.SA
9. F deP. SA
10. Gitts.OZ
11. Hababanana, SA
12. Barnes.OZ
13. Jaque the Spear Tackler. SA
14. Stivatu. NZ
15. Mils. NZ
18 Sep 2009, 14:33 pm
#105 jonty on sport:
Jonty Rhodes I presume? Nice post and I am glad to hear that you too detest the criminals.
18 Sep 2009, 14:35 pm
#103 pvz.shark: it is quite easy for the criminal to hit back – just mention the words 24 YEARS on the field and then tadaaa … instant kiwi mental failure.
18 Sep 2009, 14:38 pm
I’d change a bit cane
1. Robinson and 3. Smit (c)
12 nonu
18 Sep 2009, 14:39 pm
#114 RedLion:
Jonah….born Auckland , NZ.
Micheal Jones…Born Auckland , NZ.
Sitivatu……..has been in NZ since he was 13 years old.
When did Beastie Boy turn up in SA?
You and the likes of you are PHUCKEN HYPOCRITES.
(Who happen to outnumber us, the Good-Guys, 4 to 1).
18 Sep 2009, 14:39 pm
#118 RedLion:
Eish snagglepuss, Aussies are ‘Convicts’ so am I correct in you tagging the Kiwis as criminals. Terminology is everything if you are tagging.
Now you may toss about ‘semantics’ but what they hay or is it hey?
18 Sep 2009, 14:42 pm
#121 cane: Rocket Joe was a toddler immigrant too.
#114 RedLion: I have to say if you think the All Blacks are a team sprinkled with Pacific Islanders then you would have to call the Bok’teas a total farce. I don’t count a whole lot of real Africans (black fellas) let alone real South Africans.
Be careful mate you really are a moron to argue the moot point.
18 Sep 2009, 14:46 pm
#120 cab:
Concerning Captain Marvelous.
One good scrum…..70 minutes into his final Test Match of the Tournament, is not enough to get Mr Smit into MY Team.
LOL……..But I can see why 90% of Saffas would have him.
18 Sep 2009, 14:46 pm
#122 oodles:
Ok I give you Beastie but the rest of the Championship team were all born and bred in the RSA.
18 Sep 2009, 14:47 pm
Idiots done and dusted for the day.
Cheers all.
18 Sep 2009, 14:48 pm
#125 RedLion:
p.s. not poached as infants.
18 Sep 2009, 14:48 pm
#125 RedLion: Snagglepuss, you totally evade the point. South Africa is predominantly black yet the Bok’teas do not have a fair representation of their aboriginal people. Therefore it is totally irrational to throw stones. Many you guys are chucking f’kn house bricks.
18 Sep 2009, 14:50 pm
Keonians I am outta here too.
18 Sep 2009, 14:50 pm
The world is changing, people move about and reside where they deem appropriate. If not for that simple fact there would not be on whitey/coloured in the Springbok team.
Be realistic and not antagonistic.
18 Sep 2009, 14:50 pm
#124 cane:
fair enough, but i’d select Smit under the new rules for his mobility and work in the tightloose, which has been unbelievable and one of the real reasons for the bok dominance and why most can’t live with their intensity for the first 60min or so.
18 Sep 2009, 14:57 pm
#123 oodles:
????????????????????
18 Sep 2009, 14:58 pm
#71 poppa69: Poppa, is that mere speculation, or is there some sound reasoning for your conclusion??
Way I see it, barring serious injury, all the Boks that quite frankly spanked the All Blacks will still be around in 2011, so no need to build, just refine!!
In fact, the Boks may be even more imposing then, as some of the young stars gain experience…
I refer to Spies, Brussow, both Steyn’s and Beast… and there is no shortage of young talent coming through the system!
With regards to your asnine statement about playing teams ranked 5th, all I can say is it’s not our fault the AB’s lose against these minnows before we can play against them…. and at this rate, NZ might just be ranked 5th !!
No I am kidding, NZ will be in the top three as will SA and the Wobblies!!!
But it is the ultimate pressure situation for NZ’landers, heaven forbid they lose in anything but the finals at home in 2011!! Imagine the pressure lol, and we know what pressure does to the AB’s, especially the World Cup kind of pressure!!
Go Boks !!!
18 Sep 2009, 15:00 pm
#124 cane:
one good scrum …. do me a favour he had woody on a leash nudging his pocket for dog chews..
18 Sep 2009, 15:02 pm
#131 cab:
Over half my team were from the Republic of Eye-Gougers cab…………..I can’t be fairer than that.
As my Co-Selector….I’ll bow to your wisdom….and put John Smit in the Number 17 Jersey.
He can cover 2 front row positions so very usefull.
18 Sep 2009, 15:04 pm
#134 gunther:
That’s more likely due to the muscle behind the Props….Bakkies and Victoria.
18 Sep 2009, 15:06 pm
#105 jonty on sport: The Irish are gonna get clapped – they had many great players in the Linos squad but there were many Welsh in there too. If we can take the Lions we can take the half strength Irish for sure. Its going to be tough no doubt. Likewise with France. I think if they can beat the All Blacks theyre not too be written off – they seem to reserve their best performances for the Southern Hemisphere teams. Theyre an old nemesis team for us. Seeing as we didnt play either in the World Cup or last year it is a juicy prospect indeed. We have walloped the All Blacks, Wallabies and Wales, so all thats left in the top 5 is Ireland and France. Beat them and that goes a long way to sutting every single mouth about wether we are deserving world champs or not.
18 Sep 2009, 15:10 pm
#135 cane:
lol, no i suppose not, but 5-1 in the 3n probably reflects that dominance of the team – i think your no 8 choice was a bit gratuitous, since spies is still learning the ropes, but he is getting better and better.
18 Sep 2009, 15:12 pm
#88 poppa69: Agree with the thinking Poppa, but then in fairness, that same malady has bitten the Boks on the *** since 1994. We have often had to field players, not regarded as the best in their positions to make up “demographic political targets” so in fairness, this comparison will not get us anywhere.
I have no knowledge of this, but was the Maori/Polenesian influence that strong back then ??
18 Sep 2009, 15:27 pm
#117 cane:
1. Robinson,OZ
2. Bismark.SA
3. Smit(c).SA
4. Matfield.SA
5. Bakkies.SA
6. Rocky.OZ
7. Brussow.SA
8. Spies.SA
9. F deP. SA
10. Carter.NZ
11. Habana, SA
12. De Villiers.SA
13. Smith NZ
14. JPP. SA
15. Mils. NZ
18 Sep 2009, 15:35 pm
#133 Cheetah 4 Eva: You are 100% correct about the pressure – plan B tactic if we lose we will close down Auckland Airport so no one will get out alive ! Seriously the pressure will be immense , but maybe it will be a good thing if the ABs dont go into the WC as favourites …. Everytime they have it has been a disaster.
18 Sep 2009, 15:35 pm
#128 oodles: The same question was directed at our coach after we won the Tri-Nations, by another political lobby!! TARC or something
The answer is simple, many blacks prefer soccer, cricket or athletic’s !!
Same reason why you see virtually no white players in the national soccer team…
If there are black, coloured, or whatever player that is the best in his position, he will most certainly play!!!
There is a constant demansd by politicians for black representation in the Bok team, but they don’t do anything to promote or develop interest amongst blacks !!!
Why is there no demand for soccer to have white representation???
We as South African Rugby supportes want the best players playing for our country, we don’t care about their skin colour, we just want to WIN!!!!
18 Sep 2009, 15:37 pm
#140 mshiniwami: No Richie or Smith ??? Think Brussow, good year that he has had , has been found out now and next season will be interesting to see if he is the true article or a flash in the pan.
18 Sep 2009, 15:45 pm
#143 stew:
We shall see
But in this yr’s 3N he has been the best opensider,especially the home matches for SA he was influencial more than Smith/McCaw have been the entire tournament
Smith and McCaw is class player but Ratel Brussow in 2009-edges them.
18 Sep 2009, 15:47 pm
#124 cane: Would you like a fresh lemon to go with your grapes Sir? They are particularly sour at this time of year.
18 Sep 2009, 17:05 pm
hope the blacks win to shut those arrogant wallabies up
18 Sep 2009, 17:18 pm
#105 jonty on sport: Absolutely embarrassing. Surely this is beneath you?
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