Preview: All Blacks vs Wallabies
18 Sep 2009
Keo.co.za previews the Tri-Nations friendly in Wellington.
Non-events. You have to hate them. And nowhere in world sport is there a bigger non-event than the one being played in Wellington on Saturday.
The Springboks, with their title-grabbing victory in Hamilton last week, ensured that the only people who have a vested interest in the final Tri-Nations fixture are optimistic Aussies hoping to see their stuttering, yet talented side put one over the old enemy, and disgruntled Blacks fans (yes the thousands of you in Cape Town are included in this bunch) who will be hoping their side doesn’t slip even further into the abyss.
With nothing to play for, you’d expect it to be an open game with the ball seeing plenty of air. However, both sides’ desperation to finish their campaigns with a victory could result in a far more conservative pattern, although this is unlikely, particularly for the Blacks, who’ve shown a distinct lack of appreciation for playing the percentages throughout the tournament.
Given both sides’ penchant for a ball-in-hand attack, there’ll be an emphasis on setting an attacking platform through set-phase, tackle-point and breakdown dominance.
The Blacks’ scrum failed to trouble the Springboks in Hamilton in the manner the Wallabies had the previous week in Brisbane, and they’ll be second best against a unit who have made exponential improvements in this facet of play over the last two years.
There’s also no reason to believe that the Blacks will remedy their lineout woes in a week, despite drafting Tom Donnelly into their second row in favour of the Matfield-scarred Isaac Ross. Blacks hooker Andrew Hore will be relieved that he isn’t faced with the prospect of having to negotiate the Springbok lineout maestro, but in the Aussie lock duo of James Horwill and Mark Chisholm he and his jumpers still face formidable opponents, who will ensure that their lineout struggles continue.
Robbed of decent set-phase ball I can’t see the Blacks winning this one, even in their backyard. Unless, of course, the Wallabies kick poorly, feeding a dangerous back division with opportunities to attack from broken field.
As mentioned earlier, tackle-point and breakdown dominance will be crucial to the outcome. Blacks skipper Richie McCaw will always be a force in the latter aspect, but he will be up against two of the game’s finest breakdown exponents in George Smith and David Pocock. Their potency will be amplified by their team-mates’ ability to impose themselves on defence, something the Wallabies were adept at in their victory over the Springboks a fortnight ago and which the Blacks failed to do in Hamilton.
A quick recycle is crucial to the success on an expansive game plan and even the mercurial flyhalf Dan Carter cannot craft scoring opportunities when his service is being stifled. This holds true for both sides, but the Wallabies have a 10-12 axis in Matt Giteau and Berrick Barnes to revert to a territorial game if they need to, where the Blacks will rely almost entirely on Carter in this regard.
If the Wallabies can avoid being suckered into trying to replicate the expansive game the Blacks are expected to play, and mimic the Springboks’ measured but highly effective approach (bearing in mind that they will have to make certain adjustments given that they don’t have the quality of player to copy it completely) there’s no reason they won’t win against the most limited All Blacks side in a decade.
Prediction: Wallabies by 7
New Zealand - 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Isaia Toeava, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Joe Rokocoko, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c),6 Adam Thomson, 5 Tom Donnelly,4 Brad Thorn, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Aled de Malmanche, 17 John Afoa, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Rodney So’oialo, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Hosea Gear.
Wallabies – 15 James O’Connor, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Will Genia, 8 George Smith (c), 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 James Horwill, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Subs: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 Pek Cowan, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 Wycliff Palu, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Quade Cooper, 22 Peter Hynes.
By Ryan Vrede
182 Comments
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18 Sep 2009, 17:58 pm
Problem with the boks is that despite being dominant, and the scoreboard doesn’t lie, its hard to really revere the team because of the style they play.
Personally think the boks were very consistant, but also lucky to beat the lions who were the better team over the 3 tests. The refereeing, particularly the first test was dreadful.
As for the Dublin game, boks will come in as the definite favourites, but the Irish players will have 6 weeks of pre-season together under their belts and maybe the team will come together and deliver an upset.
18 Sep 2009, 18:14 pm
#117 cane:
1. Beast
2. BDP
3. Smit (c)
4. Bakkies
5. Matfield
6. Smith
7. Brussow
8. Spies
9. FDP
10. Steyn
11. Habana
12. Barnes
13. Fourie
14. JPP
15. Steyn
and before you argue, take a look at the Tri Nations table.
SA have 21 points to NZ and Aus’s paltry 8 & 9. NZ and Aus have both been beaten at home and thoroughly dominated away winning an unprecedented 5 out of 6, they’re effectively twice as good.
Only Berrick Barnes makes into the SA side at the moment for his superb marshalling of the Australian backline and because JDV put in a number of under-par performances.
The no. of underperforming NZ players you have in your team is a joke.
18 Sep 2009, 18:16 pm
#146 mbaxman93: Yeh boet! I lost serious respect for the Wobblies after they have behaved on and off the field – by off the field I mean the players, coaching staff and even their press failing to acknowledge or give any credit to the Boks whatsoever. They’ve really pissed me off and I will never ever support Aus against another team ever again.
In fact I’ve been very impressed with how gracious the ABs are in defeat and I have new found admiration for them. They have also been no near as dirty as the Aussies. They are now my 2nd favourite team after my glorious Boks (a country mile ahead though) and I will now be supporting the ABs when they are not playing the Boks. From Mils ‘baie dankie’ at Loftus and Ritchie’s speech when they handed out the 3Ns trophies at Hamilton, they’ve been damn good sports so come on ABs kick some Wallabie arse tomorrow!
18 Sep 2009, 18:18 pm
#150 Crouching Tiger Hidden Bokke: Oh and the day the Boks and the ABs stop playing each other is the day rugby dies! Last week’s match was the epitome of SH rugby and what the fierce rivalry is all about. Tense, brutal edge of your seats stuff watching two of the best teams in the world slog it out-flippin brilliant!
18 Sep 2009, 18:39 pm
#147 SodaJoe:
its not the real jonty….
18 Sep 2009, 19:05 pm
#83,150,151 crouching tiger!
the content of #83 blog is so inadequate and incorrect and now the reason is explained in #150.
without the emotions, you should have noted the superiority of the Wallabies team against your beloved World Champs on the Brissy game at least. and to put that down to a world champion team who were tiring and did not put on their best display on the day is an insult to the Wallabies. in fact, it was a very depressiong sight to see World Champion Boks almost losing it at the death because they ran out of puff in the last 10mins in Hamilton. i was glad the Boks won though but what if the last Carter kick was 5m shorter, game over,for the Boks ha.
on pregame show, Skinstad and Jones were asked for their predictions, skinstad said , about 3 to the Boks, and Jones said more than 15 to the ABs.. skinstad was gobsmacked indeed and so was I. Even David Kirk, the ABs capt went on to predict an annihilation of the Boks coz the ABs have more to reasons to win the game!. I thought that was just so ARROGANT by these previous ABs to not acknowledge this great Boks team which the Aussie media and rugby fans do admit to. that is called Respecting the Enemy but still acknowledging their merits.
I dont know where your prejudice for the Wallabies came from i hope you can take more time to analyse the games properly next time.
18 Sep 2009, 19:18 pm
#152 Crouching Tiger Hidden Bokke: Fair enough — you’re entitled to your opinion. My opinion is that the Bok supporters were far from gracious in defeat after Brisbane. Popular views aired on this site included:
1. the boks had deliberately lost in order to lull the ABs into a false sense of security
2. Wayne Barnes had been instructed to make sure the Wallabies won to keep the 3N alive
3. Wayne Barnes called against the Boks because he doesn’t like them
4. all non-SA refs are out to get the Boks because they are biased against them
5. the wallabies were cheating in the scrums and breakdown — hence the win
Perfunctory congratulations were sometimes offered by way of preface or postscript to lengthy rants on why the wallabies didn’t deserve the win.
Personally I think the sudden love for the ABs on this site has more to do with the fact that they decently lost all their matches against the Boks than anything else.
18 Sep 2009, 19:58 pm
#152 gunther: I know it’s not Mr Rhodes. But hat an embarrassing post. Amateur.
Howzit?
18 Sep 2009, 21:15 pm
#154 SJonesIsAGit: actually its not love for the AB rather its peoples hate for the wallabies thts making us all pray for the Blacks to do business tomorw and destroy the aussies. i’m personally hoping the aussies get thrashed just so i can hear the ridiculous excuses from the aussie media
19 Sep 2009, 00:12 am
#101 cab: Cab maybe you havent been here yourself- I’ve been on everyday up to and including the day of the game, the day after our defeat and nearly everyday since?
There is no reason for me not to- I thought the Boks played a great game and were deserved winners of the game and series. Sure, disappointing for us but good for the game to have a different winner. Looking forward to the Argies joining in the fray, this will take on a real tournament atmosphere with El latino’s beating the drums. Cheers.
19 Sep 2009, 00:14 am
#157 captain fantail: ..slight correction, three days prior to game I think I was unable to connect to Keo, it was suffering bighit syndrome- very slow
19 Sep 2009, 00:27 am
#75 bananaboy: SA has lots to be happy and proud about and a year like they have never had before( I think). If NZ had that Silverware we would be hooting too and as I have said more often than not at least SA is showing what defending and current World Champs should be doing– winning or at least putting up a good showing, not like the one hit wonders the Poms.
The next big challenge for the Boks is too be able to maintain it and it will be a big one. NZ will regroup, Australia is improving out of sight with every outing and both as we know are hungry and proud. This all makes for exciting rugby for us. Are we at all surprised, really that the Boks have regained the No1 mantle and had a series of wins and successes- NO, not at all. They have been hot contenders and leaders on and off for years and its no disgrace (in all honesty)to lose to them and for them to take this series.
Do i really think this was the best outings we have seen from the AB’s and Wallys- well blind freddy knows it was’nt but really apart from general banter its the $1000,000.00 question who would have won ‘IF’… and speculating is really all it is. Hopefully we will be settled next year and put on a better performance.
19 Sep 2009, 00:33 am
#159 captain fantail: A gracious post.
19 Sep 2009, 03:38 am
Personally, I don’t care who wins, both teams were spanked by daddy Bokke. If it were up to me, I’d cancel all remaining Trinations/Bledisloe matches. Give the people their money back, as the entertainment value between these two wooden spoon contenders will just not be up there.
I mean, please man… these people don’t want to watch this, but then they think of the money they spent buying the tickets.
It reminds me of when the All Blacks played for the 3rd/4th play off in the rwc… oh wait, that was between France and Argentina… All Blacks came 8th… how silly of me.
19 Sep 2009, 04:28 am
#160 SodaJoe: /cheers!
#161 Kobus Kitty:
Three other things you forgot. Nobody G.A.F what you think and secondly the reason it is’nt up to you is because they need people with rationale ansd some intelligence in charge, thirdly this has nothing at all to do with SA now, its a pride issue between us, just like when the Boks have had to play for second place 11 (eleven times) in the same series..tosser:-D
19 Sep 2009, 05:25 am
GO WALLABIES!!!! END THESE ARROGANT CHUMPS!!!
19 Sep 2009, 05:31 am
#163 Big Hit: the need to live vicariously through another team BH is not a good look…
shame, you cant even put your tongue deeply into the ******* that is the crack of SA rugby this weekend, sure you wont suffer withdrawals ?
19 Sep 2009, 05:35 am
#164 poppa69: lighten up pops, you know the ABs are gonna win anyway
19 Sep 2009, 05:38 am
#162 captain fantail:
Ok, you go and enjoy your match. I might watch some of it, only to snicker at the rubbish skill levels of both teams when compared to the Boks.
I can tell you, winning the Trinations doesn’t even come close to winning the World Cup… not that you would know.
19 Sep 2009, 05:50 am
#165 Big Hit: but I will laugh heartily if they don’t
19 Sep 2009, 06:07 am
I doubt AB’s will pull this off, aussies should just take this with the pressure they will apply.
19 Sep 2009, 07:20 am
#168 TheBoksAreBack: why, cause the island players have decide to revolt rascist ???
19 Sep 2009, 07:31 am
If you take into account the NZ Cavalier tours to SA, where 4 tests were played, which NZ only won 1 out of the 4 played – if we take that into account then:
Played 82
Boks Won: 37
Boks Los: 43
Drawn: 3
If you ready wikipedia – it notes the Springboks were the best rugby test team – “Until the 1990′s South Africa was easily the most successful rugby nation in Test match history”
19 Sep 2009, 07:33 am
I think it is just a matter of time until the ledger is back where it belongs, back int he Boks favour against the ABs. Time will tell. Respect to both the Boks and ABs.
19 Sep 2009, 07:37 am
#170 WORLD CHAMPS: why would you count the cavaliers ? they were and are not an official NZ side.. therefore they dont count… sorry
19 Sep 2009, 08:06 am
#172 poppa69: Barring Kirwan that was your full side so why not count it , what’s in a name ??
19 Sep 2009, 08:09 am
#154 SJonesIsAGit:
Completely incorrect on the final statement SJ.
There has always been more respect between the NZ and SA players and supporters than between any other international teams.
In my opinion its the benchmark of international rugby and whatever the ledger reads now, this game has a funny way of going in swings and roundabouts.
Yes we may have beaten the Blacks this year but we have been handed more defeats in the recent past.
SA just has a better side right now and hopefully for a year or two to come. That doesnt, however, mean it will always be the case.
19 Sep 2009, 09:24 am
#172 poppa69:
Just like your 1987 world cup doesn’t count because the Springboks weren’t invited.
19 Sep 2009, 09:33 am
ABs by 5-10 points. A desperate kiwi side will turn in on today!
19 Sep 2009, 09:36 am
#173 justrugby: they were never sanctioned by the NZRU, hence the boycott at the olympics… the count stands at 42-33… no matter how you try to dress it… they were not given full test match status… therefore they dont count..
#175 Kobus Kitty: you werent invited because you were still involved in apartheid, no ones fault but your own there… some of you havent change since then either huh kitty ??
20 Sep 2009, 00:38 am
please note first posting on this thread
20 Sep 2009, 08:40 am
It is interesting to note, that with the Wallabies – they have certainly had the travel advantage along with the ABs – yet the Boks have a better win ratio than the Wallabies – so some respect to the Boks in that regard. I know that I sound like a bitter Bok supporter going on about the travel – and yes, perhaphs it has nothing to do with it? But I pose the question -what if SA was right next to Australia and the ABs were the ones having to do massive travel? Wonder what the records would show?
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