Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
Keo.co.za analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner at Croke Park.
The Boks began the week as underdogs but then Ireland coach Declan Kidney did a curious thing. It was a big call to favour greenhorn Jonny Sexton over veteran Ronan O’Gara, and it’s a call he may live to regret.
Sexton’s celebrated as a playmaker while O’Gara’s at his best when his boot does the talking. His accurate goal-kicking under pressure would’ve been invaluable in such a close contest, and his tactical kicking could’ve been decisive in the big battle for territory.
Forget the woulds and the coulds, because ROG’s contribution will be limited to the second half. As it stands, the Boks will target Sexton, as the one-cap wonder is the least experienced player in an otherwise star-studded backline.
South Africa will look to Fourie du Preez and Morne Steyn for territorial dominance, but if they’re going to play the game in Irish territory the visiting forwards need to front. There are a few factors that suggest the Boks may win the forward battle for the first time on their five-game tour.
Beast Mtawarira, John Smit and BJ Botha finished in the front row against Italy as the Bok scrum produced an encouraging performance in the final stages. Botha will target Cian Healy, who was the weak link against Australia. Healy delivered a memorable showing in the loose, but was hammered in the scrums. In striving for front-foot ball, the Boks will be gunning for the Irish loosehead.
Victor Matfield had the better of the British & Irish Lions at the lineout earlier this year, and this dominance is set to continue. Paul O’Connell is no world-beater while it’s a mystery to everybody including the local reporters how Donncha O’Callaghan still commands a starting place.
The Boks also have Smit back at hooker, so the South African captain will resume his World Cup-winning lineout partnership with Matfield, Bakkies Botha and Danie Rossouw at the tail. Andries Bekker has enjoyed a great tour thus far, and will ensure this dominance continues when he joins the fray.
Peter de Villiers has finally chopped No 8 Ryan Kankowski in favour of the more powerful and physical Rossouw. The Bulls utility forward packed at No 8 during the Boks’ World Cup campaign, and proved a nightmare for defenders around the fringes and off the back of the scrum. If the Bok scrum gets the upper hand, this belligerent Bull will keep the visitors moving forward.
De Villiers has also got the balance of the back row right in selecting Rossouw, Schalk Burger and Heinrich Brussow. The Lions paid the price for not fielding a fetcher in the first two Tests, and Ireland have similarly opted for three ball-carrying back-rowers. South Africa have a ball-stealing specialist in Brussow and in Burger another player capable of disrupting the opposition at the breakdown. It’s a crucial partnership, and one that will slow and render the dangerous Irish attack impotent.
Defence is going to be so crucial with the Irish boasting line-breakers of Brian O’Driscoll’s quality. Adi Jacobs’ injury was a godsend for the Boks who will now field a midfield combination capable of repelling such a surge. Jean de Villiers should also make his mark in the second half, and despite the long season and talk of fatigue, the Boks have the bench to maintain an 80-minute effort.
Ireland are at home and have the brisk and blustery conditions in their favour, but the recent events could work to the Boks’ advantage. Most view the French defeat as a wake-up call, while some of the players have spoken off the record about the Irish scalp as one the Boks desperately want to capture. It would be a fitting end to a magnificent year.
It’s going to be an absorbing clash between two sides with contrasting styles, but you can’t help but feel the Boks have one match-winning performance left in them.
Prediction: Boks by 5
Ireland – 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O’Driscoll (c), 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Tomas O’Leary, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O’Connell, 4 Donncha O’Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Cian Healy.
Subs: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tony Buckley, 18 Leo Cullen, 19 Sean O’Brien, 20 Peter Stringer, 21 Ronan O’Gara, 22 Gordon D’Arcy.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Danie Rossouw, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 BJ Botha, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Dewald Potgieter, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Jean de Villiers.
By Jon Cardinelli, in Dublin
November 27th, 2009 at 5:26 am
Bok dragons by 1!
November 27th, 2009 at 5:28 am
Two very good teams. Both champions of their respected hemispheres. Its gonna be a cracker.
I still feel C.J. VanDerLinde should start before Mtawarira. Also why not play Jean Deysel at 8 which is his original position he played at the Lions before moving to Kankowski land ^^
In my opinion Potgietor is a surprise selection on the bench.
November 27th, 2009 at 5:44 am
The winner will be whichever team is able to maintain their intensity in the last 20 minutes.
I’m encouraged in that we finally have a bench with quality options throughout, which will be essential in this regard.
It seems like the minds are willing and lets just hope the bodies follow.
November 27th, 2009 at 5:53 am
@Karma-zaf: Nothing wrong with this side, Potgieter definitely deserves to be there. He has proven himself over and over.
A few surprises on the Irish side I must admit. That number 20-22 isn’t in the starting line up remains a mystery to me, but it might play in favour of the Boks.
That said, I don’t see the Boks winning this game. Not wanting to be negative, but the Irish just have something else at home. Thank feathers the game is not a Landsdown Road, that would’ve been a disaster. It’s like the Bulls playing at Loftus.
Well, I’m having a beer so long!!
)
November 27th, 2009 at 6:50 am
the best lineup PDV has put out this year.
Maku, Chillyboy, Devon selections a joke
November 27th, 2009 at 6:53 am
Do the Boks have one more game in them this year? It is debatable. I think the move of JS to hooker is good for now, but I guess the majority of people will question whether it is the best thing for the Boks in the long run (as in till 2011)
I’m a massive JS fan, so for me it’s pretty simple. Bismarck, wait your turn on the bench and PdV go and find us some props my friend.
November 27th, 2009 at 6:57 am
@Karma-zaf: Isn’t Beast a loose-head and CJ a tight-head?
November 27th, 2009 at 7:00 am
go bokke!!!!
November 27th, 2009 at 7:10 am
at the beginign of the week I was worried but now I feel we can win this last one. Come JS do you thing rally the troops. Also need our centres to prove my theroy that BOD is way overated! Boks by 7 at least. We will be too physical for them. This is one of the most physical packs we can put on the filed. PDV obviously beleives that we need to outmuscle them. I agree
can’t wait
November 27th, 2009 at 7:22 am
in PdV we trust!!
November 27th, 2009 at 7:22 am
Only thing I am worried about is the ref.
November 27th, 2009 at 7:29 am
Thats almost a perfect team, only way it could have been better was if Deysel was starting, we had a decent fullback and Pienaar wasn´t there.
November 27th, 2009 at 7:30 am
Just hope Bakkies’ back holds out for at least 60 mins as we’ll be in serious kak with Victor and Andries at lock for any length of time.
November 27th, 2009 at 7:51 am
Keo clan still rejoicing in Adi Jacobs’ injury, what a same…Stuff that, I had the oppertunity to see Jacobs lastnite at our club’s pre-season training session, what a moment, so much kuddo’s for a player that does not forget his roots
November 27th, 2009 at 7:54 am
Beast looked very up for it when he came on last week. Couldnt quite make out what he said to Castro tho!
November 27th, 2009 at 7:57 am
@Charlie: Agree with you, now lets see what a guy who took 26 tests to make any impact at Green and gold level can do in his 27th attempt
Then I read on the Sharksworld that they (Sharks fans) whant Bissie to leave!! Its a Brad Barritt, Frans Steyn situation, let them go and then gnashing of teeth when you realise that the players you are left with are nowhere near the class you allowed to leave 
November 27th, 2009 at 8:02 am
@Lions_Soutie: Beast is a very good player and he does not mind putting in the hard work. He was really exhausted and that is why he had a bit of a dip in form towards the end of this season. He will be up for this game! Oh but then the masses here will say its because John will be scrummaging all on his own at hooker and holding Beast and BJ up
November 27th, 2009 at 8:03 am
@kesbok:
I don’t know what your theory about BOD is based on, but it’s contrary to what the rest of the worlds pundits believe.
November 27th, 2009 at 8:12 am
Good team, if we can dominate scrums then is all over as the boks don’t lack anything in this team bar a great boot at the back. If Smith, Spies, F Steyn were playing then I would say it was a done deal that SA would win as there would just be to much for the Irish.
Bok advantages:
Lineout, kicking (SH & FH), rucks (Brussouw)
Irish advantages:
Backline, fielding kicks (Kearney), kicking from the back (Kearney)
To be decided on the field:
Scrums, tackle point dominance and decisions of the ref.
November 27th, 2009 at 8:17 am
is it not wonderful to see the hunted become the hunter!
Now we can target opposition scrums….instead of everytime a ref called a scrum i had to reach for a calmette….or a beer!!
November 27th, 2009 at 8:18 am
@Karma-zaf:
Springboks aren’t just the champions of the South, they are Champions of the World. We must not forget that. When it comes down to it, we win those big competitions while Ireland don’t even make the quarters, hey.
Our bench is much stronger than the Tri-nations bench, but our starting 15 is weakened by the losses of all world class players in Frans, Juan, Spies. Jdv not starting also weakens.
November 27th, 2009 at 8:24 am
83000 shouting the combined Irish provinces anthem should be quite something. Hope our boys will be up for it!
November 27th, 2009 at 8:25 am
@grant10:
November 27th, 2009 at 8:28 am
@greatest13gerber:
Man, waar val jy uit, my ou vriend.
November 27th, 2009 at 8:31 am
Breaking news
Bakkies couldnt train and is still in doubt for game.
A Bekker will move to lock off bench….and Kanko will be put in reserves…if Bakkies cant make it.
Damn
November 27th, 2009 at 8:35 am
Need Bakkies for this one!
November 27th, 2009 at 8:36 am
@grant10:
Where do you hear these things? where is your source?
November 27th, 2009 at 8:39 am
@grant10: I’m afraid the Bok’s chances have taken a major turn for the worse with that news.
Especially when you consider Bissy is out as well, we’re going to be well short of mongrel.
November 27th, 2009 at 8:41 am
@grant10: @Kobus Kitty: news 24
November 27th, 2009 at 8:42 am
@WestAussieBok: lets hope he will be ok….back problem,and he couldnt train Thursday.
November 27th, 2009 at 8:43 am
@Sharksgirl: how do u make that devil sign?
November 27th, 2009 at 8:44 am
have heard rumours that bakkies injury isnt entirely healed
nt likely to make it passed 50 minutes
November 27th, 2009 at 8:47 am
@Papoose: You put : then in write evil and close with : no spaces in between and all in lower case
November 27th, 2009 at 8:47 am
“Champions of the World”? Bowled out by not one but two English CLUB teams?
Puh-leeze! Chumpions, more likely.
November 27th, 2009 at 8:47 am
I hope for a win , but these guys are realy tired. Hope we can finish the year on a high ! Go bokke !
November 27th, 2009 at 8:47 am
@grant10: u r the one my friend
the hunted have become the hunters!!!!
November 27th, 2009 at 8:49 am
November 27th, 2009 at 8:50 am
@TheTackler:
And what are the All Blacks then? 3-0
November 27th, 2009 at 8:51 am
@grant10:
You must have a different version to the one I’m looking at, I can’t find any mention.
Besides, it doesn’t make sense to add another loosie to replace Bekker on the bench, only if Danie moved to lock to replace Bakkies.
Not saying I don’t believe you, but the whole thing seems a bit strange.
November 27th, 2009 at 8:52 am
@TheTackler: concern yourself with the Frogs perhaps??
November 27th, 2009 at 8:53 am
@David: just read it….i went through a few sites…will check again David..
November 27th, 2009 at 8:55 am
@Papoose:
November 27th, 2009 at 8:55 am
news 24…’Smit its like riding a bike’
JJ Haarmse column David
November 27th, 2009 at 8:57 am
@grant10: i dont see anything there
news24
November 27th, 2009 at 8:57 am
@TheTackler: pls go away
we dont need ur ilk here as we’re trying to have rugby discussions
November 27th, 2009 at 9:00 am
@Papoose: see post 43 boet
November 27th, 2009 at 9:00 am
@grant10: i see it now
but that story is from last night
we’ll just have to wait and see
November 27th, 2009 at 9:02 am
@grant10: 3 loosies on the bench is just stupid. I mean I know Danie will move to cover lock – instead of Kanko? Schalk instead Deysel. So who will Potgieter come on for? Brussow will be a huge asset and normally lasts the full 80. Potgieter should have never been selected. Blue eyed blue bull over-rated by our “3rd force” chumps leading SA rugby behind the scenes! The fact that Kanko is being considered shows you how political his choice was. Kind of like Maku and Chilliboy. Whenever the 1st line goes back-up comes in and leap frogs them. Pottie is a quota selection.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:03 am
@Papoose:
You know I do not believe that the Tackler is even in NZ, I am sure he is sitting somewhere in Onderbroekiespruit causing kak, because what else is there to do ?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:04 am
@grant10:
Thanks. It still seems strange to include Kanko, unless they’d intend moving Danie to lock at some stage, or start him on the bench. The only other reason I can think of is that either Schalk is’nt really fit and they want extra loosie cover when he’s replaced earlier than usual or they intend moving Schalk to 6 at some point and need extra bench cover if he gets injured. All in all a strange decision if true.