Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
Keo.co.za analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner at Croke Park.
The Boks began the week as underdogs but then Ireland coach Declan Kidney did a curious thing. It was a big call to favour greenhorn Jonny Sexton over veteran Ronan O’Gara, and it’s a call he may live to regret.
Sexton’s celebrated as a playmaker while O’Gara’s at his best when his boot does the talking. His accurate goal-kicking under pressure would’ve been invaluable in such a close contest, and his tactical kicking could’ve been decisive in the big battle for territory.
Forget the woulds and the coulds, because ROG’s contribution will be limited to the second half. As it stands, the Boks will target Sexton, as the one-cap wonder is the least experienced player in an otherwise star-studded backline.
South Africa will look to Fourie du Preez and Morne Steyn for territorial dominance, but if they’re going to play the game in Irish territory the visiting forwards need to front. There are a few factors that suggest the Boks may win the forward battle for the first time on their five-game tour.
Beast Mtawarira, John Smit and BJ Botha finished in the front row against Italy as the Bok scrum produced an encouraging performance in the final stages. Botha will target Cian Healy, who was the weak link against Australia. Healy delivered a memorable showing in the loose, but was hammered in the scrums. In striving for front-foot ball, the Boks will be gunning for the Irish loosehead.
Victor Matfield had the better of the British & Irish Lions at the lineout earlier this year, and this dominance is set to continue. Paul O’Connell is no world-beater while it’s a mystery to everybody including the local reporters how Donncha O’Callaghan still commands a starting place.
The Boks also have Smit back at hooker, so the South African captain will resume his World Cup-winning lineout partnership with Matfield, Bakkies Botha and Danie Rossouw at the tail. Andries Bekker has enjoyed a great tour thus far, and will ensure this dominance continues when he joins the fray.
Peter de Villiers has finally chopped No 8 Ryan Kankowski in favour of the more powerful and physical Rossouw. The Bulls utility forward packed at No 8 during the Boks’ World Cup campaign, and proved a nightmare for defenders around the fringes and off the back of the scrum. If the Bok scrum gets the upper hand, this belligerent Bull will keep the visitors moving forward.
De Villiers has also got the balance of the back row right in selecting Rossouw, Schalk Burger and Heinrich Brussow. The Lions paid the price for not fielding a fetcher in the first two Tests, and Ireland have similarly opted for three ball-carrying back-rowers. South Africa have a ball-stealing specialist in Brussow and in Burger another player capable of disrupting the opposition at the breakdown. It’s a crucial partnership, and one that will slow and render the dangerous Irish attack impotent.
Defence is going to be so crucial with the Irish boasting line-breakers of Brian O’Driscoll’s quality. Adi Jacobs’ injury was a godsend for the Boks who will now field a midfield combination capable of repelling such a surge. Jean de Villiers should also make his mark in the second half, and despite the long season and talk of fatigue, the Boks have the bench to maintain an 80-minute effort.
Ireland are at home and have the brisk and blustery conditions in their favour, but the recent events could work to the Boks’ advantage. Most view the French defeat as a wake-up call, while some of the players have spoken off the record about the Irish scalp as one the Boks desperately want to capture. It would be a fitting end to a magnificent year.
It’s going to be an absorbing clash between two sides with contrasting styles, but you can’t help but feel the Boks have one match-winning performance left in them.
Prediction: Boks by 5
Ireland – 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O’Driscoll (c), 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Tomas O’Leary, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O’Connell, 4 Donncha O’Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Cian Healy.
Subs: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tony Buckley, 18 Leo Cullen, 19 Sean O’Brien, 20 Peter Stringer, 21 Ronan O’Gara, 22 Gordon D’Arcy.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Danie Rossouw, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 BJ Botha, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Dewald Potgieter, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Jean de Villiers.
By Jon Cardinelli, in Dublin
November 27th, 2009 at 9:05 am
@tackler lol, have u been watching rigby this year?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:05 am
@kesbok: Yoh, you din’t know what you talking about. Have you bothered to watch BoD?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:05 am
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR):
I’d play him ahead of Deysel any day of the week !!
November 27th, 2009 at 9:08 am
@Kobus Kitty: The ABs didn’t lose to any old slap-and-tickle, bit-of-a-giggle midweek club B team. They lost 3x to the world champions. No shame in that, is there?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:09 am
@Francois Pienaar: Eleanor?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:11 am
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR): Hey….thats the post 2011 Bok captain you slandering there.
Great player Dewalt….in my book a gifted 7 or 8….
Deysel is playing well too…..
But Dewalt is superb….The Crown Price.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:12 am
@TheTackler: Don’t you mean the world “chumpions”?
@justrugby: Of course you would. Wet soggy conditions of the NH. He is a rag doll.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:13 am
@Sonito:
Think we all are. Finally we get a good team selected and we have a rubbish ref for this game. Just have to hope.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:13 am
@TheTackler:
You contradict yourself so many times its ridiculous. Go into your “paddock” and do what you do best to sheep.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:13 am
@David: yeah….leave Brussow for 80….he can steal a vital ball in the 79th minute with the boks ahead by 1 point!!!
November 27th, 2009 at 9:14 am
@TheTackler: Grudging admiration from the Tackler…you getting soft boet?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:15 am
pdv has told dewalt to bulk up, he rates him higher than deysel but deysel shows more brute the moment, if dewalt can add that to his game, bob’ s your aunt…
November 27th, 2009 at 9:16 am
@grant10: Well you give the current captain such a tough time! Lol. No ways Ratel should be groomed for captaincy post 2011. Intelligent chap and deals with the press well. Leads from the front too. Pottie as discussed is nowhere near the best 7 or 8 in the country. Quota of note, the possible selection of 3 loosie on bench, just highlights this. If the game is close and no real injuries in last 20. Pottie will remain justly uncapped.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:18 am
all you bloggers calling for deysel rather than schalk should remember one thing.
this is a big test match.
it is not italy or all blacks.
we need experience first.
the lighties can come on later
November 27th, 2009 at 9:18 am
@Transformation: If only it was that easy. Look at the body shape between Deysel and Pottie.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:20 am
@charo:
Now here is a sensible blogger, who sees green and gold first…..the way it should be !!!
November 27th, 2009 at 9:20 am
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR): i never ever gave smitty a hard time….i gave a hooker unfairly pushed to tighthead a hard time because he couldnt hold up the scrum!
Smit at 2 i support 1000000%%%
Big difference.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:21 am
@Papoose: Thought as much. Was worried about that. Should NEVER play with a back injury NEVER. Not even a slight niggle there. It could cost us huge if that becomes a very serious injury after this game. We need Bakkies for 2010 and 2011.
Bakkies if you injured mate. Take care of your back first before the team. I will become life long pain if you don’t. We need Bakkies for 2010 and 2011. LOOK after him. Don’t play him with a back injury it will be the most stupid thing to do. Even if we have to lose. Save Bakkies back and our enforcer for the big games next year and the world cup 2011.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:22 am
I menat It.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:22 am
@Transformation:
Agree !!!
November 27th, 2009 at 9:22 am
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR): with the amount of rotation that will be done leading up to 2011 i believe Dewalt will play at 8 for boks occassionally….perhaps even captain the Boks too….
All conjecture….as i say…time will tell….
He is a lot better than what you ate saying though….
November 27th, 2009 at 9:22 am
lol ratel
loo pottie is a very good player but he reminds me a little of keegan daniel
huge talent and both punch way above their weight
pottie better defender and keegan has talents like a backline player etc
but when its a huge pack you playing against you need the rossouws , alberts , deysels smiths etc
to me you should have a combo od deysel brussow and alberts up north
down in sa spies would replace alberts
of course smith could also replace deysel
one thing for sure though is SA| has great loose forwards
November 27th, 2009 at 9:23 am
69 – sorry not a good morning this..hehe. menat = meant
November 27th, 2009 at 9:23 am
@charo: We’ve got 633 caps in the starting 15, surely we can leave 54 of them on the bench and play a form youngster?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:25 am
if pottie bulked up he wont be the same player
again same as keegan daniel , they get around with speed and play with a lot of heart
fact is deysel is a 7 and pottie more a 8
and also nowhere has pdv said he rates pottie higher then deysel
November 27th, 2009 at 9:26 am
@sharks_lover: We do have great loose forwards. In this game I would have started with Deysel.
How fit is Burger? Also gives away far too many panalties and the Irish are just waiting for him.
Now read that Bakkies may not start. If he has a back injury he must just rather look after if even if it means we lose our enforcer for this game. Too much to risk playing with a back injury. Should have had Sykes to take over from Bakkies and not Bekker. Although Bekker has being playing really well on this tour.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:26 am
Deysel’s time will come. Let Schalk play for now.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:27 am
@justrugby: he is actually such a nuisance and even by putting this down we are giving him the airtime he desperately wants
we should just ignore him
November 27th, 2009 at 9:27 am
ratel i tend to agree with charo
let burger hit them hard and make them sore , then deysel to hit the nails into the coffen with pottie commin on at 8thman and running some amock
November 27th, 2009 at 9:28 am
@grant10: Yup, probably – just like Chilli a quota bok captain!
By the way I support JS no matter what. Bulls used to say he should be dropped for Gary Botha, now people criticise him at TH. The man is a legend and MUST remain on the field, where-ever till 2011. Then he can retire like you say he should. When Bissie up his form (best hooker in the world), people will question him at hooker again. He’ll switch to TH and I’ll still support him.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:28 am
@Puma: gm puma bro
schalk will be fine puma , that oke has hardly ever had a bad game in a bok jersey
deysel is learning a lot from his time now with the boks
November 27th, 2009 at 9:29 am
The Boks are in a great place right now; being able to debate close to ten 10 GREAT loose forwards. On the day any one of those gents could get a man of the match award and turn a game on its head. The envy of the world right now
November 27th, 2009 at 9:29 am
@Puma:
I was also not convinced that Bakkies would make it, I said as much to G10, what worried me was that if Bakkies could not make it and they left JS at 3, we would struggle.
The fact that they have Smittie at 2 and BJ at 3 , gives us the option of allowing Bakkies not to play and rather let him sort his back out.
Last week when BJ came on, Vic and Andries were the lock combination and we did alright.
I agree with you ,don’t risk a long term injury Bakkies !!
November 27th, 2009 at 9:30 am
@sharks_lover: Potties is there to cover for Danie for sure. Just think Burger will cost us. Has to be very disciplined for this game. Well at least Deysel is on the bench. Great player to have there. Also pleased we have JdV on the bench too.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:30 am
@Sonito: #11
We have not lost a test with that ref…yet.
Ireland 21- 34 Boks
November 27th, 2009 at 9:31 am
Quick question; why are some of the top guys agreeing to play a Barbarians game? Surely the risk of injury and the already mentioned fatigue issue should have seen these guys rather going home and getting some rest before starting off with their respective S14 unions?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:32 am
@sharks_lover:
I am impressed with the level headed thinking !!
:)
November 27th, 2009 at 9:33 am
@Puma Think Burger will get a bit of a boo’ing at Croke part for his part in the eye gouging incident during the B&I Lions tour?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:33 am
The more worrying issue is: who do we replace Bakkies with?
That man’s frame can only take so much rugby still.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:34 am
@Transformation: where do u guys get all this inside info from?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:34 am
@WP Till I Die: Not necessarily, he’s not the darling of SA rugby like Pottie. He has had to do everything the hard way (not even selected in original 37!). We have great loosies and with Juan Smith returning and if Vermuelen returns to form not to mention Burger, Deysel may never get a chance to start again. He deserves to be given his oppertunity. He has outplayed SB consistently for 18 months.
@sharks_lover: Ya like Burger made the Frenchies sore? All I saw of him was bouncing off tackles and losing possession. The only person he made sore was Ratel when he tried to rip his head-off at a maul, must be eyeing his 6 jersey. Don’t even talk about that ridiculous off-side.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:35 am
@Transformation: where do u guys get all this inside info from?@charo: hahha
i love how you say its not Italy or the All Blacks
hahahaha
LMAO
tackler must be the moer in
November 27th, 2009 at 9:35 am
@justrugby: I know all about back problems JR. Nothing worse pain wise. Just not worth it to play this game. We need Bakkies and he must rest that back. Otherwise it will be life long pain. We need him for the bigger games next year and world cup.
Just knew he would not be ready for this game. When they had his name announced yesterday just thought to myself hope he is not going to play with a back injury even just a niggle could cause serious problems later in life. Not worth it.
We have enough cover like you say.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:36 am
Watch this space boys, Rossouw to have a BIG game. Up north on the heavy playing fields he is a great 8th man (WC final and his try scoring tackle?)
November 27th, 2009 at 9:37 am
@Richie_7: Try SAVING tackle*
November 27th, 2009 at 9:37 am
I watched Boots ‘n All last night and the interview with Pdivvy and Jon Smit concerned me quite a lot. The body language from Smitty was atrocious. He really looked like a little kid who had been told he wasn’t getting an ice cream and when Jon Robbie had the temerity to probe his switch back to hooker I thought he was gonna blow big time.
I think Jon and Pieter have had a lovers quarrel and it wouldn’t surprise me if we hear something very soon.
Of course it couldve just been the Brandy!
November 27th, 2009 at 9:38 am
@Richie_7: Should have started with Deysel. I know I would have. Burger going to be a marke man not just with the players but the ref. Deysel is a superb blindside. Now hoping he does get a chance to come on. Think Potties is on the bench to cover Danie and Deysel to cover for Burger. Well that is my feeling. Not sure.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:38 am
@sharks_lover: Schalk has started 3 games this year. 2 of them have been unadulterated shockers!!! Lions 2nd test and France.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:40 am
@Puma:
How’s your back, I remember you debating whether to have an op or not. I will always look to avoid the knife, sometimes only solution though.
Anyway I hope you are pain free !!
November 27th, 2009 at 9:40 am
@sharks_lover: lol
how parochial of you…pipe down ol’ snorre! Dewalt is the future…