Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
Keo.co.za analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner at Croke Park.
The Boks began the week as underdogs but then Ireland coach Declan Kidney did a curious thing. It was a big call to favour greenhorn Jonny Sexton over veteran Ronan O’Gara, and it’s a call he may live to regret.
Sexton’s celebrated as a playmaker while O’Gara’s at his best when his boot does the talking. His accurate goal-kicking under pressure would’ve been invaluable in such a close contest, and his tactical kicking could’ve been decisive in the big battle for territory.
Forget the woulds and the coulds, because ROG’s contribution will be limited to the second half. As it stands, the Boks will target Sexton, as the one-cap wonder is the least experienced player in an otherwise star-studded backline.
South Africa will look to Fourie du Preez and Morne Steyn for territorial dominance, but if they’re going to play the game in Irish territory the visiting forwards need to front. There are a few factors that suggest the Boks may win the forward battle for the first time on their five-game tour.
Beast Mtawarira, John Smit and BJ Botha finished in the front row against Italy as the Bok scrum produced an encouraging performance in the final stages. Botha will target Cian Healy, who was the weak link against Australia. Healy delivered a memorable showing in the loose, but was hammered in the scrums. In striving for front-foot ball, the Boks will be gunning for the Irish loosehead.
Victor Matfield had the better of the British & Irish Lions at the lineout earlier this year, and this dominance is set to continue. Paul O’Connell is no world-beater while it’s a mystery to everybody including the local reporters how Donncha O’Callaghan still commands a starting place.
The Boks also have Smit back at hooker, so the South African captain will resume his World Cup-winning lineout partnership with Matfield, Bakkies Botha and Danie Rossouw at the tail. Andries Bekker has enjoyed a great tour thus far, and will ensure this dominance continues when he joins the fray.
Peter de Villiers has finally chopped No 8 Ryan Kankowski in favour of the more powerful and physical Rossouw. The Bulls utility forward packed at No 8 during the Boks’ World Cup campaign, and proved a nightmare for defenders around the fringes and off the back of the scrum. If the Bok scrum gets the upper hand, this belligerent Bull will keep the visitors moving forward.
De Villiers has also got the balance of the back row right in selecting Rossouw, Schalk Burger and Heinrich Brussow. The Lions paid the price for not fielding a fetcher in the first two Tests, and Ireland have similarly opted for three ball-carrying back-rowers. South Africa have a ball-stealing specialist in Brussow and in Burger another player capable of disrupting the opposition at the breakdown. It’s a crucial partnership, and one that will slow and render the dangerous Irish attack impotent.
Defence is going to be so crucial with the Irish boasting line-breakers of Brian O’Driscoll’s quality. Adi Jacobs’ injury was a godsend for the Boks who will now field a midfield combination capable of repelling such a surge. Jean de Villiers should also make his mark in the second half, and despite the long season and talk of fatigue, the Boks have the bench to maintain an 80-minute effort.
Ireland are at home and have the brisk and blustery conditions in their favour, but the recent events could work to the Boks’ advantage. Most view the French defeat as a wake-up call, while some of the players have spoken off the record about the Irish scalp as one the Boks desperately want to capture. It would be a fitting end to a magnificent year.
It’s going to be an absorbing clash between two sides with contrasting styles, but you can’t help but feel the Boks have one match-winning performance left in them.
Prediction: Boks by 5
Ireland – 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O’Driscoll (c), 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Tomas O’Leary, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O’Connell, 4 Donncha O’Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Cian Healy.
Subs: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tony Buckley, 18 Leo Cullen, 19 Sean O’Brien, 20 Peter Stringer, 21 Ronan O’Gara, 22 Gordon D’Arcy.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Danie Rossouw, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 BJ Botha, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Dewald Potgieter, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Jean de Villiers.
By Jon Cardinelli, in Dublin
November 27th, 2009 at 9:41 am
Guys I am teeing it up at Mowbray in a while, need to go get things done ………
May the boys make us all proud !!!!!!!
G10 see you at 3.30pm tomorrow !!!
November 27th, 2009 at 9:41 am
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR): i dont share the blind loyalty you do….its pro sport….loyalty selection makes one weak….
Smit has all the attributes to fight off the contenders at hooker
At tighthead he is up a river with no paddle.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:42 am
@DEE DAH: Dee Dah there was a time delay there. You could hardly see their faces. So not sure about that. Could hardly hear them speak because of that.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:42 am
@justrugby: heeeeehaaaaaaaaa
Enjoy champion!
November 27th, 2009 at 9:42 am
@grant10: There are no contenders at 3 in SA.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:42 am
@Papoose:
It’s called an open secret…
November 27th, 2009 at 9:43 am
Boks will klap the Irish by 12.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:46 am
@justrugby: No was going for a spinal block a week ago, but my surgeon changed his mind and said he was going in to just kill off 3 nerves there. I just had other thoughts and never went back
My GP had something similar done and he can not feel his legs now. Will just wait until next year and live with this pain. I have had it for so long another month to see another surgeon in Joburg will be fine.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:47 am
Play Danie at 4 and bring back Kanko at 8…. keep Deysel and Pottie on the bench with Bekker.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:48 am
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR): ****….WP Nel….Buys….and CJ and BJ will be back by May nest year….
November 27th, 2009 at 9:51 am
beautiful day here in Clifton…..ideal for newlands cricket
November 27th, 2009 at 9:51 am
@DEE DAH: #96
Hopefully it’s just the brandy that made you see things that’s not there.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:52 am
@Papoose:
papoose #92
ja, that was a stinky sardine left in the water in case a few kiwi blaasoppies were swimming around..lol
November 27th, 2009 at 9:52 am
@Papoose: you need to lace yourself with Twitter Pap…plus DP is a “friend” on Facebook
November 27th, 2009 at 9:53 am
PDV is the Boks Boss….no one else…
About time he started stamping his authority.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:53 am
Saturday is not going to be pretty. It’s going to be attritional, forward-dominated, bash ‘em up rugby.
Typical Springbok rugby.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:55 am
@DEE DAH: Very interesting insights there
trouble could be brewing
hey
saw heini adams in Pta yesterday
had a cast on..had an interesting chat abt the tour and dirt tracker games
November 27th, 2009 at 9:58 am
@grant10: Well that is good news. Now hope we win the toss. Those that bat first there have a better chance to win.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:59 am
@bananas: that move would be an insult to bekker
they played well last 20mins against Italy without bakkies and that front row
lets nt worry too much
Bokke by 8
November 27th, 2009 at 10:00 am
@nama1:
November 27th, 2009 at 10:00 am
@grant10:
@grant10 115
is tht response in connection to the boots and all interview?
November 27th, 2009 at 10:05 am
@Puma: yes….i amy go for the 1 st innings….got a dinner at 7 so might pop out just for 1 st knock…
November 27th, 2009 at 10:05 am
@Papoose: yes….never saw it….did you?
If so what is your impression?
November 27th, 2009 at 10:06 am
Would like to see some tries by the backs from set piece play.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:06 am
@WP Till I Die: going to the Firemans to watch??
November 27th, 2009 at 10:10 am
@grant10: Hope we in the toss.
@grant10: Grant I saw it and it was such a bad feed. You could hardly see their faces and could hardly hear them speak. They I think could not hear what was said from Randburg. So nothing much into that interview. They looked uncomfortable because they could not hear much. Some questions had to be repeated to John and PdV. Think that is it. Nothing happening there. Bad feed not able to hear and guys in the studio could not hear either very well or see them. The feed to them was jumping about all the time so you could hard see or hear the. That is my take. They had a laugh at one stage between each other. Just a bad feed mate.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:12 am
@Puma: thanks Puma
November 27th, 2009 at 10:12 am
@winger: Wont see much of that I think in the weather they going to play in. Rain and very strong winds predicted.
We just need to win by one even if it is a boring kicking game I don’t care just win it.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:13 am
@grant10: Well that was my take on it.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:15 am
i reckon D Muir must be having lots of clandestine meetings on this tour….Lions need players!!
November 27th, 2009 at 10:18 am
@grant10:
At Synergy music festival this weekend…
November 27th, 2009 at 10:19 am
@grant10: He will be for sure.
Actually would like to see a strong Lions side again. SA needs all their S14 sides to be strong. Better for Bok rugby in the end.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:20 am
@WP Till I Die: cool!!
November 27th, 2009 at 10:21 am
@Puma: agree
November 27th, 2009 at 10:26 am
@Puma
Also true. I reckon long-distance territorial kicks will have to be spot on. It will also be crucial to slow down Irish recycle at the breakdown.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:36 am
@winger: Agree. We do have Brussow there but for me I would have had Deysel too. Burger must just not give away any penalties or get a yellow. That will put us on the back foot. Think he will be marked from the start. By players and ref.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:39 am
Just reading on News24. They calling this a “mini world cup” Why?
Is it because they are 6 nations champs and us Tri-Nations champs? Must be, but really a to go as far as calling it a mini world is a laugh actually. It is just another test.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:41 am
Brussow has to play for 80min. Potgieter and Deysel can add a lot of value in cleaning rucks and as ball carriers in these weather conditions. They both have good work rates.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:43 am
@Puma: And the fact that we actually are THE WORLD CHAMPIONS. Stupid Irish journos!!
November 27th, 2009 at 10:44 am
Tomorrow is going to be brutal, that is for sure.
I expect a lot of niggle.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:45 am
I see there is yet another Irish priest *** scandal…
November 27th, 2009 at 10:54 am
@Kritik: 139 – Exactly. Such so stupid to bill it like that. Maybe playing mind games with us. Putting pressure on the Boks who knows. For us it is just another test.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:02 am
If there is any bad blood,itl be because of Paddy o Brien and his chommie RoG.The boks will have one foot on the plane(its a new-age rugby playing phenomenon,even on such short tours,bring back the bloody ships I say)but obviously cos BJ is there we will be going forward,FACT.Whether we drive the ball up at 4km/hr or 2 doesnt really bother me,if anything Id prefer the 2 option,cos Ill be savouring the destruction.Go Bokke
November 27th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Very conservative score prediction.
I reckon the Boks are up for this one and it’ll be a hiding. Let’s shut those Irish whingers up once and for all.
Go Bokke!!
November 27th, 2009 at 11:09 am
@WP Till I Die:
Babes
What has happened in your life that a music festival takes precedence over two brilliant international rugby test matches.
Pray tell.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:11 am
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR): @Transformation: @Ratel Brussow (MSIUR): @Ratel Brussow (MSIUR): @Ratel Brussow (MSIUR):
You must be either a very bitter person or a total idiot- and then again you might just be one of those blindly loyal fools who can’t see his arse from his elbow. Take the Italy game. He made two tackles, missed four, made two attempts at winning ball in the tackle, pulled off two cleans. To his credit he won a penalty with one of his attempted steals and made one yard if that in the carry. But that was it in 30 minutes.
Yes it was his debut, but he was hardly showering himself in glory. Now most of us around here would accept that for starters, but you make it seem asif he was Superman, the Incredible Hulk and the Fantastic Seven all rolled-into one.
Now the honest truth is this: Looking to the future, if Deysel picks up 1 kg he will be overweight, while Dewald could comfortably add 6 to 8 kgs to his frame without making a dent in his speed. Deysel is two years older than Pottie, which is a huge window at that age, and as it is Pottie already has the jump on him in every department except bulk, and he has a much higher workrate. Now if you were Snorre what would you do?
For your info, Pottie is on the bench according to PdV because Kanko is experiencing headaches due to a bump on the head. If Bakkies can’t play due to his back and Kanko is then brought in as cover for him in spite of his headaches, then surely PdV will only expose Kanko to having to play if it really necessary, and play Pottie as was his original plan. So stop arguing like a child and get past your bias.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:16 am
@catleya: Who are the fantastic Seven?
I’ve heard of the Fanatstic Four & the Magnificent Seven.
Cowboys with super powers perhaps?
November 27th, 2009 at 11:16 am
@Dawn:
I’ll still be watching the rugby!
November 27th, 2009 at 11:20 am
Bakkies didn’t train yesterday because he looked out of his hotel room saw it was raining and threw a paddy……!!!
November 27th, 2009 at 11:21 am
The Irish man survived but Bakkies tweaked his back again!!