Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
Keo.co.za analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner at Croke Park.
The Boks began the week as underdogs but then Ireland coach Declan Kidney did a curious thing. It was a big call to favour greenhorn Jonny Sexton over veteran Ronan O’Gara, and it’s a call he may live to regret.
Sexton’s celebrated as a playmaker while O’Gara’s at his best when his boot does the talking. His accurate goal-kicking under pressure would’ve been invaluable in such a close contest, and his tactical kicking could’ve been decisive in the big battle for territory.
Forget the woulds and the coulds, because ROG’s contribution will be limited to the second half. As it stands, the Boks will target Sexton, as the one-cap wonder is the least experienced player in an otherwise star-studded backline.
South Africa will look to Fourie du Preez and Morne Steyn for territorial dominance, but if they’re going to play the game in Irish territory the visiting forwards need to front. There are a few factors that suggest the Boks may win the forward battle for the first time on their five-game tour.
Beast Mtawarira, John Smit and BJ Botha finished in the front row against Italy as the Bok scrum produced an encouraging performance in the final stages. Botha will target Cian Healy, who was the weak link against Australia. Healy delivered a memorable showing in the loose, but was hammered in the scrums. In striving for front-foot ball, the Boks will be gunning for the Irish loosehead.
Victor Matfield had the better of the British & Irish Lions at the lineout earlier this year, and this dominance is set to continue. Paul O’Connell is no world-beater while it’s a mystery to everybody including the local reporters how Donncha O’Callaghan still commands a starting place.
The Boks also have Smit back at hooker, so the South African captain will resume his World Cup-winning lineout partnership with Matfield, Bakkies Botha and Danie Rossouw at the tail. Andries Bekker has enjoyed a great tour thus far, and will ensure this dominance continues when he joins the fray.
Peter de Villiers has finally chopped No 8 Ryan Kankowski in favour of the more powerful and physical Rossouw. The Bulls utility forward packed at No 8 during the Boks’ World Cup campaign, and proved a nightmare for defenders around the fringes and off the back of the scrum. If the Bok scrum gets the upper hand, this belligerent Bull will keep the visitors moving forward.
De Villiers has also got the balance of the back row right in selecting Rossouw, Schalk Burger and Heinrich Brussow. The Lions paid the price for not fielding a fetcher in the first two Tests, and Ireland have similarly opted for three ball-carrying back-rowers. South Africa have a ball-stealing specialist in Brussow and in Burger another player capable of disrupting the opposition at the breakdown. It’s a crucial partnership, and one that will slow and render the dangerous Irish attack impotent.
Defence is going to be so crucial with the Irish boasting line-breakers of Brian O’Driscoll’s quality. Adi Jacobs’ injury was a godsend for the Boks who will now field a midfield combination capable of repelling such a surge. Jean de Villiers should also make his mark in the second half, and despite the long season and talk of fatigue, the Boks have the bench to maintain an 80-minute effort.
Ireland are at home and have the brisk and blustery conditions in their favour, but the recent events could work to the Boks’ advantage. Most view the French defeat as a wake-up call, while some of the players have spoken off the record about the Irish scalp as one the Boks desperately want to capture. It would be a fitting end to a magnificent year.
It’s going to be an absorbing clash between two sides with contrasting styles, but you can’t help but feel the Boks have one match-winning performance left in them.
Prediction: Boks by 5
Ireland – 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O’Driscoll (c), 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Tomas O’Leary, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O’Connell, 4 Donncha O’Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Cian Healy.
Subs: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tony Buckley, 18 Leo Cullen, 19 Sean O’Brien, 20 Peter Stringer, 21 Ronan O’Gara, 22 Gordon D’Arcy.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Danie Rossouw, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 BJ Botha, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Dewald Potgieter, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Jean de Villiers.
By Jon Cardinelli, in Dublin
November 27th, 2009 at 11:25 am
Quiet here, I will go and read John Smits “Twitter”…….
Will tell you if there are any ‘juicy’ bits!!
November 27th, 2009 at 11:26 am
@carol: Morning Carol, Why you at home at this hour?
If Bakkies still has that back injury he must not play rather rest it. Danie will have to move to 4 and maybe Burger to 8 and Deysel to 7. Or Potties to 8 and Deysel on bench to cover for Burger. We have enough cover on the bench we should be fine but will miss our enforcer for sure.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:30 am
@catleya: But then we all know you view every game through blue tinted glasses. Deysel made an impact when he came on and it was immediately evident. Having said that I would also play him off the bench, you need experience on the parck. Potgieter was anonymous in the Saracens and Leicester games, his work rate is good granted but then so is that of Jacques Botes and Keegan Daniel yet they are not on tour.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Are SA/Ire and AB/Eng at the same time?
Do I have to PVR?
November 27th, 2009 at 11:34 am
@Sharksgirl: Not to mention in both games against the Sharks in CC.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:36 am
@Puma: Hi Puma – Bit of overtime to use up….!!
I bet Bakkies will play and think I have got two months to get my back sorted!!
He is probably swallowing Nurofens as we speak!
November 27th, 2009 at 11:37 am
@Dawn: The all blacks are playing France, not England, and no. The matches are not at the same time. Boks play at 14H30, Aussies//Wales at 17H10 I think and the All Blacks at 19H15 I think.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:37 am
Hi Dawn, hate to tell you – If you were hoping to see AB v England you missed it!! Last weekend…..
It is France v AB on Saturday!!
November 27th, 2009 at 11:38 am
@rossoneri: That was quick!!
November 27th, 2009 at 11:45 am
I hope Healy really steps up in the Scrum this Sat otherwise we’re going to get mullered, saying that Healy has faced Botha many times in the past. In fact Botha said Healy gave him his hardest game last season. I also have no idea how Sexton will handle this game but I suppose that’s why I love this game.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:47 am
If Bakkies can’t start, I’d rather move Pakslae Russouw to lock, Move Schalk to no 8, Move Deysel to 7 and Bring Kanko onto the bench…
November 27th, 2009 at 11:51 am
@carol: Thank you.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Sheesh!
Honest mistake!
November 27th, 2009 at 11:57 am
@Dawn: I think your mind was on ‘higher’ matters!!
November 27th, 2009 at 11:57 am
@Dawn: What did you think of John Smit this morning on Blitz in the extra extra extra Large tights.
November 27th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
@Kietzphat: #161
Bekker was very good during the tour. He deserves to start in place of Bakkies if Bakkies can’t play.
November 27th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
@justrugby: I wonder if Deysel is another Sharks player to get dcked around by the Bok management just like Kanko. Watch him leave for overseas next year. Thanks PdV!
November 27th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Boks by 5. Brave call by Keo. Going to be a miracle if we come out with a victory. The Irish are desperate to prove something after the Lions tour and they will play their hearts out. Watch for lots of off the ball stuff. I’d be amazed if there isn’t any bad blood after this game regardless of the result. Not meaning to be negative but can see another embarrassment for the Boks on the horizon. I hope I’m wrong!
November 27th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
-http://www.sportsmarketingsurveys.co.za/genericsurvey.aspx?id=61
November 27th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
@Crouching Tiger Hidden Bokke: Kanko hasn’t been messed around, he’s just been **** in every game he’s played for the boks. He has his opportunity and didn’t seize it, if he leaves it’s no real loss, except for the sharks.
November 27th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
@Dawn: spending to many hours in harrington street again?
November 27th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
@Charlie: Hey Charlie, what does not forgetting your roots, in the case of Adi Jacobs, have to do with either missing tackles or, more often, not staying in your channel and leaving a gap the size of the QEII to sail through?
November 27th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
@Valkyrie:
I know no such place.
November 27th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
@goyougoodthing2: Charlie don’t fall for it. Let this oke carry on with his nonsense, if BOD runs rings around anyone or falls off a tackle like Schalk against the Frogs then he will have nothing bad to say. He will just look for the good things these guys did…dont even know why I am bothering…ezilayti maziyokunya!!
November 27th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Anyone know who’s reffing this game?
November 27th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
@Yetirat: I think its Nigel owen
November 27th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
@Sharksgirl:
Oh dear…
I’m not a homophobe and I don’t hate everything in the Northen Hemisphere but Nigel Owens is definitely not going to help our cause on Saturday. He can be very pedantic at times.
November 27th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
PEOPLE LISTEN TO ME FOR I BRING A GREAT PROPHECY….
1.) After the Fiji game I sat watching this Sexton play. I watched many of his moves, frame by frame.
I realise his weakness.
He is not so strong going backwards.
IT IS UP TO OUR LOOSIE BOYS TO SMASH HIM FASTER.
LIKE A JACKAL CATCHES A DOVE WE MUST BE FASTER.
2.) We have the right team now. Our wonderful coach never makes a mistake when the big game comes. We as the public must do more to support our coach Pete. He is brilliant.
3.) Never mind the conditions. We must run and run hard at the Irishmen. All year they have been playing fat men . They must know our name.
4.) Pienaar ahead of Rose on the bench is a great injustice .
November 27th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
@Crouching Tiger Hidden Bokke: Kanko has not delivered this tour, he has had long enough. Time for Alberts ..
November 27th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
@bananas: Yes sir. Kanko is only good for super 14 . No pedigree for internationals. Alberts will be our Chabal.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
@Sharksgirl: And so us as Pottie fans must simply sit and listen to the rattlenakes ranting and raving without so much as a word? Get a life and take off them black and white Raybans of yours, mrs D.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
@catleya: Actually that is NOT what I am saying at ALL! Actually while I am not exactly a Pottie fan, I recognise that one day he will be a great! What I WAS trying to say was that unlike your statement Deysel did make an impact when he came on, suddenly the Boks were breaking the advantage line and getting go forward ball. THis was also Deysel’s first outing at test level. Pottie did not have as grand a first outing in green and gold, as you were suggesting in your post, that is ALL I was trying to say. Not that Pottie is not a good player. What I am saying is you should be careful not to look at EVERY player that is NOT wearing Blue as not quite good enough. Had you been arguing Pottie/Spies vs Kanko, as much as my heart would be sore and I would want to bite my tongue I would have agreed with you. So maybe we should both take our provincial glasses off.
And since you know who I am, are you who I suspect you are? Don’t whant to write it publicly incase you do not whant to.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
@Sharksgirl: was meant to add that the last bit about Botes and Keegan was just a knee jerck reaction to your post, this was then meant to be followed by the bit about the taking off of provincial glasses. I type faster than my brain thinks
November 27th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
I seriously doubt there will be any untoward stuff in this game. Lots of BS from the hacks in IRE and SA. If there will be blood it’ll be from hard play from both teams. I fully expect no shenanigans.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Hi to all you bulls fans and non bulls fans out there i have been offline for a while due to some technical problems,but they are sorted out now,firstly i want to congratulate everyone at loftus for a job well done for the bulls to win the super14 for a second time was brilliant,but to win the currie cup as well in the same season and become the FIRST SA TEAM to do so was the icing on cake for all bulls fans,to describe that feeling only BULLS fans will know how SWEET the taste of victory is that is something all you non bulls losers have never tasted and maybe never will,but the BULLS have done it and that can NEVER be taken away from them,onto the boks tomorrow i hope they play good rugby and win well and they now have a chance that bunny jacobs and giraffe beker are not playing as they are bloody useless.Who is going to replace matfield and botha when they retire beker and hargreaves i think not and as for jacobs he is a just a joke.MEI BLOED IS BLOU.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
@catleya: Pottie has enough fans in high places. He’s got SARU to fight his battles.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
@Sharksgirl: No I’m not what you think I am. So let’s agree to disagree.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
@catleya: BTW Stegman deserves to be on that bench MUCH more than Pottie. No provincialism, just over-ratednism.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
@blueboy:
And your Brain is non-existent!
Bekker has had a coming of age tour thus far. he has arguably out played the MAN himself Vic
November 27th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
@blueboy: Bekker’s stakes are rising. He will one day fill Victor’s size 16s.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR): Probably because they, unlike you, can see what they have in him. And in any case, I’m actually being silly even acknowledging you by my responses because who cares what you think. I certainly don’t. As for Sharksgirl, she came up for you and if she can’t take the heat she should stay out of the kitchen. Seems all you Sharks okes suddenly have an axe to grind with Pottie. He must be chaffing some touchy souls up the wrong way.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
@rugbygenius:
Sorry but for me Albert is a Lock. He is to slow and not creative enough to be a great 8th man. Vermeulen will be a great back-up to Spies!
November 27th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Have to point out that Dewald Potgieter is being groomed as the next captain. And far from anonymous on the field. I don’t think so, he has a high work rate, but it is expected that sharks supporters have a disdained view of bulls players
November 27th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
@catleya: Ya, I’m against quotas in sport. Players should have to EARN their jersey.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Im a province man, and i will admit Pottie has impressed me throughout the year, but he has not had the greatest of end of year tours! Just my 2c worth.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
@rossoneri: ur times are GMT
in SA we are GMT +2 hrs
November 27th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
@Partizan: Not at all. Spies is a maturing into a great 8th man and Stegman deserves to be back-up 6. The only problem I have is with Pottie himself, he’s a good player who gives his all, but hardly the best we have to choose from.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR):
If Stegman is the next best after Brussouw then SA is definately lacking in the No 6 department!!!!
November 27th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
@Cereal Killa 77: He’s more suited to harder fields, but even at home the bok 7 jersey should be kept away from that guy. We have brilliant 7s in this country, its just unlucky for him.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
@Crouching Tiger Hidden Bokke: ur blind sharks loyalty is clouding ur judgement
some players just dont step up when given the opportunity
i dont think we’ve seen a forward play that badly in a bok jersey,against france, in like forever
u cant blame PdV for that