Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
Keo.co.za analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner at Croke Park.
The Boks began the week as underdogs but then Ireland coach Declan Kidney did a curious thing. It was a big call to favour greenhorn Jonny Sexton over veteran Ronan O’Gara, and it’s a call he may live to regret.
Sexton’s celebrated as a playmaker while O’Gara’s at his best when his boot does the talking. His accurate goal-kicking under pressure would’ve been invaluable in such a close contest, and his tactical kicking could’ve been decisive in the big battle for territory.
Forget the woulds and the coulds, because ROG’s contribution will be limited to the second half. As it stands, the Boks will target Sexton, as the one-cap wonder is the least experienced player in an otherwise star-studded backline.
South Africa will look to Fourie du Preez and Morne Steyn for territorial dominance, but if they’re going to play the game in Irish territory the visiting forwards need to front. There are a few factors that suggest the Boks may win the forward battle for the first time on their five-game tour.
Beast Mtawarira, John Smit and BJ Botha finished in the front row against Italy as the Bok scrum produced an encouraging performance in the final stages. Botha will target Cian Healy, who was the weak link against Australia. Healy delivered a memorable showing in the loose, but was hammered in the scrums. In striving for front-foot ball, the Boks will be gunning for the Irish loosehead.
Victor Matfield had the better of the British & Irish Lions at the lineout earlier this year, and this dominance is set to continue. Paul O’Connell is no world-beater while it’s a mystery to everybody including the local reporters how Donncha O’Callaghan still commands a starting place.
The Boks also have Smit back at hooker, so the South African captain will resume his World Cup-winning lineout partnership with Matfield, Bakkies Botha and Danie Rossouw at the tail. Andries Bekker has enjoyed a great tour thus far, and will ensure this dominance continues when he joins the fray.
Peter de Villiers has finally chopped No 8 Ryan Kankowski in favour of the more powerful and physical Rossouw. The Bulls utility forward packed at No 8 during the Boks’ World Cup campaign, and proved a nightmare for defenders around the fringes and off the back of the scrum. If the Bok scrum gets the upper hand, this belligerent Bull will keep the visitors moving forward.
De Villiers has also got the balance of the back row right in selecting Rossouw, Schalk Burger and Heinrich Brussow. The Lions paid the price for not fielding a fetcher in the first two Tests, and Ireland have similarly opted for three ball-carrying back-rowers. South Africa have a ball-stealing specialist in Brussow and in Burger another player capable of disrupting the opposition at the breakdown. It’s a crucial partnership, and one that will slow and render the dangerous Irish attack impotent.
Defence is going to be so crucial with the Irish boasting line-breakers of Brian O’Driscoll’s quality. Adi Jacobs’ injury was a godsend for the Boks who will now field a midfield combination capable of repelling such a surge. Jean de Villiers should also make his mark in the second half, and despite the long season and talk of fatigue, the Boks have the bench to maintain an 80-minute effort.
Ireland are at home and have the brisk and blustery conditions in their favour, but the recent events could work to the Boks’ advantage. Most view the French defeat as a wake-up call, while some of the players have spoken off the record about the Irish scalp as one the Boks desperately want to capture. It would be a fitting end to a magnificent year.
It’s going to be an absorbing clash between two sides with contrasting styles, but you can’t help but feel the Boks have one match-winning performance left in them.
Prediction: Boks by 5
Ireland – 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O’Driscoll (c), 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Tomas O’Leary, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O’Connell, 4 Donncha O’Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Cian Healy.
Subs: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tony Buckley, 18 Leo Cullen, 19 Sean O’Brien, 20 Peter Stringer, 21 Ronan O’Gara, 22 Gordon D’Arcy.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Danie Rossouw, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 BJ Botha, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Dewald Potgieter, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Jean de Villiers.
By Jon Cardinelli, in Dublin
November 27th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
@catleya: I think you misread my post. You called me by my name so I have an idea of WHO you may be, so was just asking you whether you are that Bulls suporter who used to on ocasion blog on the Sharks site, and with whom I used to on ocasion exchange emails. I was not calling you names, just don’t know if that person is you whether you would appreciate me putting that name on this forum. I was not trying to call you names or insinuate anything else.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
@Cereal Killa 77: Whateva, the guy has had 2 good seasons. Did you watch the final of the CC? If Pottie wants to make the boks he should convert himself to a fetcher. I would still prefer Stegman though.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR):
I can kinda agree. He is not GREAT in any 1 position, but very good in all 3. Good benchwarmer i guess then.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
@Papoose: Schalk also had a nightmare.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
@Cereal Killa 77: Ya exactly. Great 6,7 and 8 at provincial level, but nowhere near Bok level in any of them.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR): @Ratel Brussow (MSIUR):
Did you ever stop to think that that guy was down to play 7 with Brussow and was called on to move to cover six at number 99. ait is a totally different game, especially from a timing point of view. Instead of aqcknowledgingh that the guy has great allround cappabilities as a loosie you choose to slate him .
Our problem seems to be this- there is the Sharks way and the rest of the world and if you don’t conform to the Sharks way you get slated. I know Brussow is a Cheetah, but your heart is eating **** to lure him there.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR):
Just proving the point that we are in serious need of some more fetchers in this country!
Stegman is a really poor mans Brussouw! Doesnt get trhough half as much work as the brussel sprout. defense not in the same league and with ball in hand is nowhere near brussouw!!!
November 27th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
@catleya:
Actually there seems to be a WP way a Bulls way aa Sharks way a Free State way and well i guess a Griquas way!!
November 27th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR):
Agreed he is not Bok starting material……..YET!
November 27th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
@catleya: In the midweek game Deysel wore the 6 jersey, Pottie the 7. So surely Deysel could cover 6, also Schalk could move to 6 too? Not sure what you are on about. I rate Stegman and he is BB. I also think Botes and Daniel are not in the same league. Again, I fail to see your point about being a shark. I have a problem with the fact that some players just seem to walk into the national set-up, in this case because he interviews well, while others have to sweat blood to get in and have to utilise every opportunity, cause one bad game will be their end (ie Morne Steyn, Ratel and Deysel). Kanko blew his numerous chances and must now prove himself again in the S14.
November 27th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Nobody argues that Brussow is special, but the the time will come when the opposition will realize that to counter him is not that difficult. They will start to focus on playing him off his feet as he arrives at the ruck, which will negate his fetching abilities to a large extent. Once this happens consistently, what will happen next? Are you gonna turn on him? It is better to find a foil for him to play from- to create variation in our loose playing style, not to place one guy on a pedestal and base everything on him. What if he gets injured. Does that mean we have to reinvent the wheel in a week.
No, it is far better to create variation and diversity in our playing patterns. You don’t do that by having a lot of Brussow clones or a lot of big bungling loosies who all try to carry the ball that yard too far and lose it in the process. Why not carry as far as you can, control it, retain it, set up again and play from there.
November 27th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
@catleya: Stegman should be getting groomed for when Ratel gets injured. Not sure, quality fetchers are that easy to negate. Anyway any player that requires special attention opens the game up for our devastating ball carriers of which Pottie is not one.
November 27th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
My 2 cents worth on the loosies….
6…Fetchers….IN ORDER….Brussow….Watson….Steggmann
7 Juan Smith…Deysel…Schalk
8 Spies….Dewalt Kanko.
For me DEwalt is the most dynamic, all rounded loose forward in the country…wish he was a WP 8 th man with Watson gone….
Imo he iis a very ,very good 7…but his skill set is s o awesome it lends to an 8 th man.
Deysels bulk makes , perhaps, for a stronger ball cerrier, although in the SH conditions i may still prefer Dewalt.
Dewalt will leead the senior Boks next year, Smit will be rested at times, as well Matfield.
Personally Deysel and Dewalt 2 good players….
But overall Dewalt has a wider range of attributes.
PS
Schalk is never ever never a 6!!!!
Dammit …thats like calling Smit a world class 3,,,,,
it simply is not true!
November 27th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
@grant10: Ya, I would go along with that, although where do you rate Vermuelen and Alberts in all that.
November 27th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Just had a damn good laugh at the “over to Hugh” interview with PDV on news24. He asks Pieter about the team spirit and he replies “these boys are tight man, like brothers from different mothers. All for one and none for Luke Watson”. Thats hard on LW I know but a bloody funny chirp. He also refers to Schalk “i’m looking for my goggles” Burger.
November 27th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
@grant10:
Would have Vermeulen somewhere in that mix also
When Schalk came onto the scene he was devistating at the breakdown, for a good couple of years. He was a true (SA) #6. He seems to have lost his effectivness (doesnt get the turnovers he used to)and teams have worked him out….just like they might do with Brussel Sprout over the coming years.
Schalk has a bit of a problem now as he is not specialising in any particular position.
In otherwords he is in the same boat as Dewalt. Very good in any of the positions but truely great in none!!
November 27th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Why is EVERYONE BEING SO TECHNICAL TODAY !!!!!!!!!
It’s FRIDAY FFS!
November 27th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
@grant10:
“6…Fetchers….IN ORDER….Brussow….Watson….Steggmann
7 Juan Smith…Deysel…Schalk
8 Spies….Dewalt Kanko.
Agree 100% with you here.
November 27th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
@Dawn:
lol, yeah i guess you right
So we gonna bliksem them 2morrow, celebrate with a couple/10 cold ones and a lekka steak and boerie
November 27th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
@Ratel Brussow (MSIUR): let them have a big super 14 next year….again a horses for courses….conditions very nb….Kanko and Spies i may not play in NH on a wet track….
Lots of very good talent!!
November 27th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
off to cricket…cheers!
November 27th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
@Cereal Killa 77: Schalk broke his neck. Not the same player. Still good. **** he is a legend, most would have NEVER returned. A true warrior. Time for the new boys though.
November 27th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Bakkies OUT!!!!!!!? Withdrawn….
November 27th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
@Bellboy: Says who? where?
November 27th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Me- here….
On Die Burger website- of all places!
November 27th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
@Bellboy: Of all places? My china, you will find that Die Burger is the most rugby-focussed and on the spot paper in SA (and I dont read it)
I will go check it out… if so… then Russouw at 4, Burger at 8, Dewalt at 7, Deysel on bench?
November 27th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
@Bellboy: Then Burger to 8, Deysel to 7 and Danie to 4. Deysel proved himself last week. Need to start with what we know against Ireland. Potties on the bench.
That is if Bakkies is out. Thought with a back injury he would never make it.
November 27th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Sorry boys- I think ‘lang gat’ Andries slots in next to VM
November 27th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
@Puma: no….A Bekker in…F Hougaard to bench
November 27th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
@Bellboy: Bugger. He has played well though but I would have had Danie go to 4.
November 27th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
BOKS 27
IRELAND 15
November 27th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
@grant10: Bekker has played well but he is more like Victor. Then our scrum is sorted so maybe it will be fine. I would have had Danie go to 4 and moved Burger to 8 and bring on Deysel for 7.
Still a good team. Bakkies is a huge loss though. Reminds me of when we lost Burger before he hurt that neck. Felt like you lost about 3 players. The same with Bakkies when he does not play. I know he only plays for about 65 min but he is a huge player in our team. Damn.
Then that back is far more important and he must get that injury sorted out first. Don’t take a chance with a back injury.
November 27th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
@Puma: huge blow puma
November 27th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
@grant10: Big blow. Not sure why F. Hougaard is on the bench though? Who is he going to cover for? Maybe if we lose a wing. Or scrummie and Ruan to cover for FH.
November 27th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
@Puma: Hougaard seems to be a golden boy there?
Havent seen much of him so cant comment….i know Justrugby rates him….and i listen when he talks….he knows his stuff!
November 27th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
@grant10: He was not that great when we played against Sarries. Then he is very young so let us see.
We should still beat them but with Bakkies there you kinda feel safe.
November 27th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Ratel – with reference to your statement that Pottie has only had two good years – halo, the guy is only 22 years old.
How many loosies can claim that at 22? Maybe Schalk, Luke and Spies…if that!
Maybe I should pick my team of current U/25 players who I believe will be in the Bok frame post 2011 and see what you think of that:
1. Coenie Oosthuizen – Cheetahs
2. Adriaan Strauss – Cheetahs
3. WP Nel – Cheetahs
4. Steven Sykes – Sharks
5. Andries Bekker – W.P.
6. Heinrich Brussow – Cheetahs
7. Pierre Spies – Blue Bulls
8. Dewald Potgieter – Blue Bulls
9. Francois Hougard – Blue Bulls
10. Morne Steyn – Blue Bulls
11. Lwazi Mvovo – Sharks
12. Lionel Mapoe – Cheetahs
13. Juan de Jongh – W.P.
14. Chris Jordaan – Sharks
15. Patrick Lambie – Sharks
16. Kyle Cooper – Sharks
17. Patrick Celliers – Sharks
18. Heinke van der Merwe – Lions
19. Alistair Hargreaves – Sharks
20. Wilhelm Steenkamp – Blue Bulls
21. Gerhard Mostert – Sharks
22. Flip van der Merwe – Blue Bulls
23. Duanne Vermeulen – W.P.
24. Willem Alberts – Sharks
25. Biscuit van Deventer – Lions
26. Johan Wessels – Cheetahs
27. Derek Minnie – Lions
28. CJ Stander – Blue Bulls
29. Nick Koster – W.P.
30. Jano Vermaak – Lions
31. Wilton Petersen – Cheetahs
32. Robert Ebersohn – Cheetahs
33. Lionel Cronje – W.P.
34. Stephan Dippenaar – Blue Bulls
35. Earl Snyman – Cheetahs
36. JPP – Sharks
37. Francois Steyn – Sharks
That’s 8 Blue Bulls, 9 Cheetahs, 5 W.P.,4 Lions and 11 Sharks out of 37 players who I rate to have a shot at carrying the Bok standard forward post 20011. Note, I’m not saying they are the only ones- these are the guys I rate currently, and I put JPP and FS last because FS is playing in France and JPP’s form has me worried.
November 27th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
@Puma 108
Before you think of the knife, check out alternatives to that. I been practising and teaching Bikram yoga for 8 years, completely fixed both knee reconstructions, back, shoulder and wrist. The heat and stretch will definitely help. Goodluck!
Boks by 12!
November 27th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
@catleya:
I’d also include Sarel Potgieter and Viljoen from Griquas in that list.
Why Mapoe at 12, BTW?
November 27th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Sorry, Sarel Pretorius.
November 27th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
@David:
I just reckon he has everything to make a sublime 12. Big, strong, aggressive, good defence, good hands. Will probably have to work on kicking game, but that’ll be the least of his concerns. We need a nice strong 12 and I just like the look of this guy. Played there myself so I have a fair idea of what is required.
November 27th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Green army are going down tomorrow!!
Gonna be there to watch them cry. They aren’t even in our league when both teams are at their best! Tomorrow may be close, but we know!
November 27th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
@catleya:
What about about his distribution and timing? I’ve only ever seen on a few occassions at wing, so find it difficult to comment. What is obvious, is that we’re desperately short of 12s.
November 27th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
O’Driscoll will be O ****
November 27th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
They say 12’s are made not born. Your question about distribution and timing is a good one and from what I’ve seen he’ll do just fine, plus remember he is playing 7’s, so I’m hoping he’ll hone those skills even further over there.
I like a big strong 12 for the loosies to play from occassionally to keep the opponents honest, but with a really strong passing game to play out wide as well, allowing the 13 to drift wider on the pass to give him a chance to run around his opponent on the outside or at least get in there, get his hands through and play the wing or fullback coming in. And I believe this bloke is capable of that.
Of course, when he really goes hard and straight, the opponents are gonna have to park a Bell dumper in his way, especially if he can cultivate a little inside shimmy.
November 27th, 2009 at 8:33 pm
What time (what day is kick off) and Big Hit or anybody….do you have the ‘justintv’ link yet for the game.
Am in Hawaii so need some help/answers. cheers !!
November 27th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
It’s on Setanta. 8:30 CST time in USA.
November 27th, 2009 at 8:41 pm
@catleya:
Interesting, and I agree with your points about what is needed from a 12, although they’ve come in many guises and combos. BOD at 13, made Roberts look great, which has been shown in Roberts rather one dimensional performances for Wales, this year.
Anyway, I need to go, my wife is getting restless about me sitting at my computer. I’ll watch out for Mapoes’ potential as a 12.
Cheers.
November 27th, 2009 at 8:42 pm
Think outside the box for NZ 2011:
Groom Bekker at 8, FduP at 12, Ruan at 9, Deysel at 1, and Mapoe at 15.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
Bokke to win by 6!