Preview: Ireland vs Springboks
Keo.co.za analyses the key match-ups and picks a winner at Croke Park.
The Boks began the week as underdogs but then Ireland coach Declan Kidney did a curious thing. It was a big call to favour greenhorn Jonny Sexton over veteran Ronan O’Gara, and it’s a call he may live to regret.
Sexton’s celebrated as a playmaker while O’Gara’s at his best when his boot does the talking. His accurate goal-kicking under pressure would’ve been invaluable in such a close contest, and his tactical kicking could’ve been decisive in the big battle for territory.
Forget the woulds and the coulds, because ROG’s contribution will be limited to the second half. As it stands, the Boks will target Sexton, as the one-cap wonder is the least experienced player in an otherwise star-studded backline.
South Africa will look to Fourie du Preez and Morne Steyn for territorial dominance, but if they’re going to play the game in Irish territory the visiting forwards need to front. There are a few factors that suggest the Boks may win the forward battle for the first time on their five-game tour.
Beast Mtawarira, John Smit and BJ Botha finished in the front row against Italy as the Bok scrum produced an encouraging performance in the final stages. Botha will target Cian Healy, who was the weak link against Australia. Healy delivered a memorable showing in the loose, but was hammered in the scrums. In striving for front-foot ball, the Boks will be gunning for the Irish loosehead.
Victor Matfield had the better of the British & Irish Lions at the lineout earlier this year, and this dominance is set to continue. Paul O’Connell is no world-beater while it’s a mystery to everybody including the local reporters how Donncha O’Callaghan still commands a starting place.
The Boks also have Smit back at hooker, so the South African captain will resume his World Cup-winning lineout partnership with Matfield, Bakkies Botha and Danie Rossouw at the tail. Andries Bekker has enjoyed a great tour thus far, and will ensure this dominance continues when he joins the fray.
Peter de Villiers has finally chopped No 8 Ryan Kankowski in favour of the more powerful and physical Rossouw. The Bulls utility forward packed at No 8 during the Boks’ World Cup campaign, and proved a nightmare for defenders around the fringes and off the back of the scrum. If the Bok scrum gets the upper hand, this belligerent Bull will keep the visitors moving forward.
De Villiers has also got the balance of the back row right in selecting Rossouw, Schalk Burger and Heinrich Brussow. The Lions paid the price for not fielding a fetcher in the first two Tests, and Ireland have similarly opted for three ball-carrying back-rowers. South Africa have a ball-stealing specialist in Brussow and in Burger another player capable of disrupting the opposition at the breakdown. It’s a crucial partnership, and one that will slow and render the dangerous Irish attack impotent.
Defence is going to be so crucial with the Irish boasting line-breakers of Brian O’Driscoll’s quality. Adi Jacobs’ injury was a godsend for the Boks who will now field a midfield combination capable of repelling such a surge. Jean de Villiers should also make his mark in the second half, and despite the long season and talk of fatigue, the Boks have the bench to maintain an 80-minute effort.
Ireland are at home and have the brisk and blustery conditions in their favour, but the recent events could work to the Boks’ advantage. Most view the French defeat as a wake-up call, while some of the players have spoken off the record about the Irish scalp as one the Boks desperately want to capture. It would be a fitting end to a magnificent year.
It’s going to be an absorbing clash between two sides with contrasting styles, but you can’t help but feel the Boks have one match-winning performance left in them.
Prediction: Boks by 5
Ireland – 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O’Driscoll (c), 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Tomas O’Leary, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O’Connell, 4 Donncha O’Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Cian Healy.
Subs: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tony Buckley, 18 Leo Cullen, 19 Sean O’Brien, 20 Peter Stringer, 21 Ronan O’Gara, 22 Gordon D’Arcy.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Danie Rossouw, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 BJ Botha, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Dewald Potgieter, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Jean de Villiers.
By Jon Cardinelli, in Dublin
November 27th, 2009 at 9:16 pm
Subs: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Dewald Potgieter, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Jean de Villiers.
What does Transformation think of the lily white bench?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:18 pm
@haribaldi:
I dont see it on the Setanta schedule for USA
Is that saturaday live or Sunday delayed?
Go Bokke
November 27th, 2009 at 9:19 pm
@kwas:
At least some of them have a tan unlike the paddy’s bench
November 27th, 2009 at 9:27 pm
Boks starting 15 is fine except a few worries
I think front row should be better, but I do see Bismark coming in soon
I am a bit worried about the loose forwards but is a heavy but maybe fne for the conditions they could expect.
I would like to see Skalk get back to his old self (minus the yellow cards)
I am happy that WO is at 12 he deserves it and his defence is good (needed in this game) It would have been harsh to put JDV starting at 12 ahead of WO We need confidence in our back up players , plus he knows most of his bulls teammates.
I worry about Zane @15 with difficult conditions
He needs JP and Habana’s help here.
Should be a good game hope it’s dry
November 27th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
This debate about 12 and 13
JDV is the best 12. WO is best back up based on his current form.
JF is our best 13, on current form Adi is as good but added with injury problmes his form as dropped
Future star Eberson
November 27th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
@CoachPete:
Howzit Coach…. long time.
Best of luck guys.
To all the SA fellas who have made the trip… see you there.
Hope you all enjoy your stay and have a ball.
Hope it’s a hard clean and skillful game.
Win lose or draw let’s all hit the tiles afterwards and have a good chin wag
November 27th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
@CoachPete:
yep…. totally agreed, takes me a month in the sun just to go white
November 27th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
Hey Flame top
Long time no see
How the babies
Yeah both very good teams
I agree with Sexton choice I say slect form players
His all round game is better and his kicking is pretty good
I think things will be even in scrums Linouts may go boks way, breakdown maybe even, and backs well even too.
I guess it may come downto kicks at goal
November 27th, 2009 at 10:39 pm
@CoachPete:
Baby no. 2.. 1 week old!
Yep Sexton is the right choice whether he plays well or not.
He’ll learn from the experience.
SA will win scrums, hopefully by not too much.
Lineouts will go mostly as per thrower in.
Boks will win breakdown, up to Ireland to keep the ball alive.
Ire backs will cause havoc with decent possession.
Key to the game will be “will they get it?”
SA need to roll the mauls, pick and go all day with big forwards.
The kick chase tactic will lose the match for the Boks
November 27th, 2009 at 10:46 pm
@Flametop:
Yup
Smit and Bismark’s throw in are usually great.
Yes with rolling mauls
If we do kick then good kicks hopfully
Kicking on a blustery wet day makes good sense, and if Boks have more ball you may see some of those long rolling kicks with wind and some up and unders and a some grubbers which are difficult to handle in the wet.
Should be good If on a neutral ground I give boks edge but its in Ireland and well anyones game.
Whats the weather going to be like Flametop?
November 27th, 2009 at 10:48 pm
@Flametop: Disagree with Irish backline causing havoc, Springboks defence has always been awesome. J Fourie is great on defence, WO is exceptionally strong (but probably not up to JdV standard yet. Morne Steyn and Fourie dP have proved to be good defensive partnership. On attack the above are good. ODriscoll is best in the world (maybe challenged by JdV) but is going to struggle without quality ball and thrives on structured play rather than broken play that ‘Boks prefer with kicking game. I say ‘Boks by 15 points or more
November 27th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
Cheers I am off
Go Bokke
November 27th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
Hi – SOS – does anyone know where this is showing in UK?
November 27th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
Oh yay, Bakkies Botha is out of the game. Now we get the Lanky wing that does NOTHING in the starting 15. Oh, yay.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:34 pm
They need to put Danie at lock with Deysel at 8 or something, we can’t have this lanky wing playing lock for us. He rarely hits the break downs and when he does he does nothing. Weak in the scrums too.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:50 pm
@Kobus Kitty:
The “lanky wing” is not Baxxies but he offers something else.
For example:
There will be much more pressure on their lineouts.
He carries the ball better than Baxxies
He makes more tackles than Baxxies
The “lanky wing” will be OK, don’t worry.
SA will win easily.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:56 pm
i feel sorry for the wallabies ,they got that SH hating moron wayne barnes as referee for tomorrows game vs the welsh
November 28th, 2009 at 12:06 am
Bekker a better lock than Bakkies and against France Bakkies should have just stayed off after they roughed him up. The bully got some his own medicine and since then he’s never been the same. I say its over cadova for Baxxies the bully Bekker is better all the way round and had a far better impact than him on this tour so far.
November 28th, 2009 at 12:31 am
@skopskiet:
thems fightin’ words, Skop.
Must say, Bekker looked great in full flight for that disallowed try vs Sarries. Showed real footballers instinct to get outside the man and head for the corner. Very coordinated for such a huge man, what do you feed em down there ?
November 28th, 2009 at 12:54 am
@skopskiet:
I suppose you’re the type of fan that would be very impressed with Bekker have a sprint down the wing against Saracens.
Botha is one of two the best locks, ever (the other being Matfield). And he forms the best Lock pairing, ever.
Massive, massive loss to the Springboks.
November 28th, 2009 at 1:04 am
bekker is a far better lock than bakkies’got moered by the french’botha.if he starts playing rugby instead of maiming players he might be considerd as great but he’s time unfortunately has gone.the boks should be glad they have lock that will become greater than matfield and botha!
November 28th, 2009 at 1:07 am
@Valkyrie:
Thats disgusting. Bekker is 3rd rate rubbish.
November 28th, 2009 at 1:19 am
@Kobus Kitty:what’s disgusting?..the fact that the thug got his own medicine back.i absolutely thank the french for destroying his self-believe.
November 28th, 2009 at 1:35 am
@Valkyrie:
Opening seconds of the France v Boks game, Botha was involved in a maul – a Frenchman (I think it was the same guy who had his breastbone broken by Botha) was coming in from the side and started collapsing it illegally, Botha grabbed him by the neck area, wrenched him down to the floor walked over him like dirt.
So I’m sure a blood bin won’t affect his self-belief, VALKYRIE.
You must be a WP supporter. Tell me when the Boks play the All Blacks, do you cheer for the All Blacks?
November 28th, 2009 at 2:08 am
@Kobus Kitty: why should i cheer for the all blacks?explain please.
November 28th, 2009 at 3:54 am
Bakki Botha is out injured, that already changed the UK odds from a 12:10 to 10:11.
Also Bekker moved to lock in the line up while Hougaard is on the bench, the Boks are now with 4 forwards, 3 backs on the bench.
The Boks persumed weaker and still have the Beast and Kirshner among the run ons, a huge handicap.
The referee Owen just been flattened by Mujati 5 weeks ago, it may affect his biases since Mujati got away with the lightest of punishments in the IRB book.
prediction:
Ireland by 3 to 10 points
November 28th, 2009 at 4:41 am
@Hondo:
Beast is not a handicap to the team. I’d have him over any prop in the world.
November 28th, 2009 at 7:41 am
@Kobus Kitty:
You are entitled for your opinion of course, so what’s your prediction?
I thought The Beast was BADLY exposed against France?
And there was a good reason why the Boks management played him for only 8 minutes against Italy?
November 28th, 2009 at 10:19 am
To the writers at Keo…. up your game.
All the comments about the Irish media are rubbish
Here’s some good analysis from Brendan Cole at RTE.
While I don’t agree with all of it- it’s balanced reporting showing up both sides strengths and weaknesses.
Guinness November Series: Ireland v South Africa
Friday, 27 November 2009 17:39
by Brendan Cole
Ireland take on the World Champions in what may come to be seen as the ‘end of the beginning’ of head coach Declan Kidney’s gradual reshaping of the team.
For obvious reasons, the selection of Jonathan Sexton ahead of Ronan O’Gara has dominated the headlines and it is by far the most important change. But the Leinster out-half’s inclusion is part of a full picture that also includes Keith Earls on the wing and Paddy Wallace at inside centre. That pair have been picked despite the availability of Shane Horgan and Gordon D’Arcy, both of whom are fully fit, capable replacements with the proverbial ‘bags of experience’.
Peter Stringer’s return to the bench also hints that Kidney hopes to get the ball as quickly to his main strike weapons in dangerous areas – a constellation working around Brian O’Driscoll at outside centre. Among the many subplots to this game is that the removal of the long-standing need to protect the defensively frail O’Gara may spell the beginning of a new challenge for Tomás O’Leary. The importance of his ‘insurance tackling’ out wide may decline slightly as among a number of the exciting possibilities heralded by Sexton’s inclusion is that Ireland may be able to replicate the superb linespeed of the current Leinster defence.
But the most exciting development is that this Irish backline has collectively got more speed and passing ability than arguably any selection of the last 20 years or more.
Sexton opens up new dimensions for Ireland
Declan Kidney and Jonathan SextonBut the crucial change is at out-half where Sexton offers sound passing and kicking basics but also a personal breaking threat, and the speed to pass and then wrap around his centres and involve himself in the wider channels. Back play revolves around the extra man and essentially, there are two new threats for the South African defence to contend with in that regard.
The capacity for speedier delivery to the wide areas should also improve Rob Kearney’s chances of making the type of slashing breaks perfected by Lee Byrne of Wales, which benefited hugely from the distribution of Gavin Henson. Add in Wallace’s strength at operating close to a defence and checking it, O’Driscoll’s full complement of attacking skills, and the speed of the wings and Ireland are potentially a very potent mix. All in all, it bodes well for the continued second flowering of the Ireland captain’s incredible career.
Obviously, South Africa will have a lot to say about whether the remodelled Ireland backline will have a chance to really show what it can do. The Springbok forward pack, epitomised by the combination of huge weight and even bigger work ethic of Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield’s touches of class in the second row, will represent a massive challenge for the Irish eight.
Paul O’Connell is the obvious focal point for resistance and if they do end up coping with South Africa in the tight Ireland will almost certainly have the Munster captain’s leadership to thank. That said, he will have to be careful not take on too much as he was a magnet for South African turnover efforts when charging up off static ball during the Lions Tests this summer. Cian Healy and the back-row trio of David Wallace, Jamie Heaslip and Stephen Ferris will also need eye catching games with ball in hand if Ireland are to even approach parity.
Brussow and Burger – particular threat
Schalk BurgerAside from the collective work ethic, the South African wing forwards are a particular threat. ‘Fetcher’ Heinrich Brussow will marshal the inside channels making any effort at crashing simple ball up ‘one out’ from the ruck fraught with danger, while Schalk Burger is likely to patrol the outside corridors with menace as he did for the Boks against the Lions this summer.
Ireland need to find it in them to tame that pair and win enough quick, effective ruck ball to make them a viable attacking force over multiple phases. The Lions showed it is possible. Even so, doing it this weekend represents a massive challenge.
Aside from the breakdown, the scrum is the other major area of concern. John Smit’s move to hooker may be influential, while Botha’s massive power in the locking position in particular presents a huge test to any opposition eight. It is true to say that John Hayes matched Tendai Mtawirara in the third test, but the caveat is that Botha was absent for that game. Fingers crossed.
In the lineout, the talismanic combination of Hayes, Jerry Flannery and O’Connell should be enough for Ireland to win 80% or so despite Matfield’s athleticism and intelligent reading, and the entire Springbok unit’s cohesion. On the other hand, Smit’s throwing in may turn out to be slightly fallible if Ireland can get men in the air on their ball.
Kick and chase key for Boks
Brian Haban and Morne Steyn – chasing and kickingSecond only to prioritising forward domination, the South African kick and chase – territory – game is an essential part of their plan. Morne Steyn is not a running threat but Rob Kearney, Tommy Bowe and Keith Earls will be severely tested by both his and Fourie Du Preez’ kicking. After Kearney’s superb displays in the summer, South Africa may well opt to look to the Irish wings, and the relatively inexperienced Earls in particular, for weakness. A pack can only stand so much pressure and Ireland need their back three and half-backs to play as clean a match as possible in the ping pong in order to avoid undue stress up front.
In terms of the Boks’ attack, the centre pair of Wynand Olivier and Jaques Fourie play a fairly basic style and the major threat is the opportunism of Bryan Habana and Fourie Du Preez, both of whom can change a situation in an instant. Full-back Zane Kirchner has a zip about him but in truth, South Africa pass the ball so infrequently that their wide threat will only come into play if Ireland are well and truly crushed up front. The hope is that the men in green will cope up front and that good game management and the effective defensive system will limit the chances for the two key strike men.
Typically, the referee is factored in at this point though given this November’s events, he could easily have gone in at the top. In truth, Ireland couldn’t have asked for better with Nigel Owens, the best in the business, taking charge.
Owens typically gives the attacker the benefit of both the doubt and an extra second while allowing a vigorous contest for the ball and if Ireland can provide the numbers and momentum to throw attacking ruckers past the ball, they should survive. As with Cullen, Sean O’Brien, an excellent breakdown forward, could turn out to be an important player.
This is a key match in the early part of Kidney’s reign; one in which victory would cement the gains of the past year. On the other hand, a bad defeat would represent a significant setback and mean something of a return to the drawing board. Virtually all of Kidney’s cards are on the table. The Boks’ form has been mediocre of late and some key personnel are missing but they can be expected to raise their game with needle in the match-up and the carrot of beating the Grand Slam champions on offer.
This time, Ireland are primed to make a statement of intent.
November 28th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
@Kobus Kitty: For crying out loud, quit your whining woman.