Preview: Wallabies vs All Blacks
30 Jul 2010
JON CARDINELLI foresees another Blackout this weekend as the Wallabies won’t be able to live with the All Blacks’ physicality.
Last Saturday, the Wallabies landed a blow that sent the Springboks down to the Tri-Nations canvas. They were rougher, tougher and ultimately smarter, and at the end of the Australasian tour from hell, the Boks had no reply.
The Wallabies’ dream start, however, will be short lived. They have home advantage, but they’re playing a team that’s grown stronger with every game this season.
After a scrappy start against Ireland and Wales, the All Blacks hit their straps against the Boks to score two bonus-point wins. They also managed to limit their opponents to two tries in two matches and 29 points overall.
The Aussies enjoyed similar success on the defensive front, but relied heavily on the boot of Matt Giteau to see them home. Their superior physical display was complemented by their ability to retain possession for long periods, and halfbacks Will Genia and Quade Cooper were instrumental in penetrating the Bok defence.
The All Blacks won’t be so generous. They smashed the Boks at the tackle at Eden Park and at the Cake Tin. In Richie McCaw, they have a player capable of slowing or stealing possession, and this will be key considering the All Blacks need to disrupt the Wallabies’ rhythm.
Cooper’s suspension is a setback for the hosts, even though Giteau is a more than competent 10. Whether he can offer Australia the same attacking edge is doubtful.
Neither Giteau nor Berrick Barnes are known for their abilities to take on the defence, and this, along with Australia’s likely loss at the collisions, is bound to limit the hosts’ overall potency. The All Blacks, having dominated the tackle point, had an easy time marshalling South Africa’s wide forays, and we should see more of the same in Melbourne.
The set-pieces will be interesting with Stephen Moore bolstering the Wallabies scrum and Nathan Sharpe sure to test an All Blacks lineout that enjoyed plenty of success against the Boks. But it will come down to the breakdowns and collisions, and the Aussies will play more territorially.
The Wallabies hardly kicked last week because they didn’t need to. The momentum was provided through their breakdown superiority, and as long as they retained possession, they usually prospered. This week, they’ll be outmatched in this area. They will strive for good field position and then try to build an attack from deep within All Blacks’ territory.
The Blacks will continue to employ their surge and destroy brand, although the Wallabies’ defence will be tougher to breach than that of the Boks. Dan Carter will vary his play in the early stages, and only once a comfortable lead’s been established will the visitors cut loose.
It may not be another bonus-point victory, but the win should bring the All Blacks one step closer to reclaiming the Tri-Nations title.
Prediction: All Blacks by 10
Wallabies – 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 James O’Connor, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Will Genia, 8 Richard Brown, 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom (c), 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Salesi Ma’afu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Subs: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Matt Hodgson, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Anthony Faingaa, 22 Kurtley Beale.
All Blacks – 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Joe Rokocoko, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan; 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Israel Dagg.
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286 Comments
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30 Jul 2010, 05:41 am
cooper suspension is a big blow….they’re in need of Ioane’s physicality coz this week O’Connor will be taken back to school as he always is against the all blacks
30 Jul 2010, 05:41 am
All Black – Fire breathing Dragons
30 Jul 2010, 05:41 am
Damn it!
30 Jul 2010, 05:42 am
s
30 Jul 2010, 05:45 am
@flanka(flanka)-1: O’Conner is a bit small isn’t he? Cruden has that problem too but size is not quite as crucial at 10 as it is at 15.
30 Jul 2010, 05:53 am
@Muttonbird(Muttonbird)-5: cruden is a bit of a stick…don’t get me wrong, o’connor’s no twig but when he gets roughed up earlier on he tends to go missing for the rest of the game and that was clear in last years bledisloes especially when they bombarded him with the high ball….that all black back 3 is just too classy and to think dagg’s on the bench..
30 Jul 2010, 05:57 am
@Muttonbird(Muttonbird)-5: Naas Botha couldn’t tackle an angry 8 year old girl, and he regularly ended matches with the cleanest pair of white shorts in the team. Didn’t stop him from being one of the finest flyhalves in history. Naas always had great protection in his channel from his openside flanker and no.8.
30 Jul 2010, 05:59 am
Eligibility:
O’Connor was eligible for all 3 Tri Nations teams because of his New Zealand born parents and South African born Grandmother. He was a Parramatta Eels rugby league junior in Sydney before switching over to rugby union at 15.
30 Jul 2010, 06:06 am
@TheTackler(TheTackler)-7: Harder to do that in today’s game? Flatter defences, players marking one-on-one, video analysis to concemtrate on weaknesses etc.
You see a lot of 10′s scrag-tackle these days to slow a player while another defender comes to finish him off. Dan Carter does this. Gregan did it a lot. Wilkinson did not – brave as Custer but he was not mindful of his body and that’s why he’s fcked now.
30 Jul 2010, 06:13 am
All Blacks used to put Mehrtens in at full back for first phase defence towards the end of his career and the Irish have done the same with O’Gara. The need to smash someone back in the tackle or stop them on the advantage line is greater at fly half and centre then it is at full back generally.
30 Jul 2010, 06:27 am
@Muttonbird(Muttonbird)-9: Gregan was the master of the small-man tackle, using the player’s own momentum against them.
Was the only Wallaby I ever saw that could take down Lomu one-on-one.
Surprised that more teams don’t take him on as a defense consultant, especially for their flyhalves.
30 Jul 2010, 06:31 am
@DonutDunning(DonutDunning)-11: Yeah, he hung around the neck like a dead albatross.
30 Jul 2010, 06:34 am
Anyway:
All Blacks 32 – 22 Wallabies
30 Jul 2010, 06:38 am
@Muttonbird(Muttonbird)-12: Modified version of one of the staple Judo throws, extremely effective.
Growing up I used to have to spar against Julian Salvi (now plying his trade with Bath and the Brumbies), who was a good 20-25kg my superior. Was the only way to take him down
30 Jul 2010, 06:43 am
Back to the game, I think the loss of Cooper may actually work in the Wallabies favour to an extent.
The All Blacks no doubt had a plan to shut him out of the game very early on by unsettling him, something I am surprised that Schalk and Danie etc did not do last week.
Barnes, while not having the same flair, is the most level headed player in the Wallaby setup, and his midfield defense is much stronger than a Cooper-Giteau combination.
Very even in many facets, but Wallabies will probably struggle at the breakdown unless they really put in the hard yards.
Wallabies by 5.
30 Jul 2010, 06:43 am
No Gregan now though and while Genia looks the goods, he’s still inexperienced, and unlike Gregan, won’t be able to psychologically beat the AB’s before the game’s kicked off.
30 Jul 2010, 06:48 am
@DonutDunning(DonutDunning)-15:
Brave call
30 Jul 2010, 06:50 am
@DonutDunning(DonutDunning)-15: The Wallabies do usually make the most of their hometown advantage and unless the Blacks put in a performance like Ak or even Wgtn it will be difficult to win. I’m picking that they will hold their intensity though.
30 Jul 2010, 06:52 am
“Celebrating Heaven’s Game Competition!” – Competition on KEO.
WTF? Why would you want to celebrate that monki-fcker?
30 Jul 2010, 06:58 am
@DonutDunning(DonutDunning)-15:
They tried but they could not get to him…
30 Jul 2010, 06:59 am
Its a shame about Cooper being banned (pathetic decision Bakkies is the only player who should of been banned) I would have favoured the Wallabies at home with him and Genia playing so well in tandem along with the rest of the team. I still reckon that the Aussie can win this one however. The Boks have made both teams look better, by not playing with a recognised fetcher against the likes of Mcaw and Pocock is pretty much suicide!
30 Jul 2010, 07:04 am
@Muttonbird(Muttonbird)-9: Dan Carter is a VERY good tackler, quite willing and able to cut off a ball-carrier at the knee. Scragging around the collar is not his preferred style.
30 Jul 2010, 07:04 am
@Muttonbird(Muttonbird)-13: I think the ABs will run away with this one
ABs confidence is very high and Aussies are a very poor streak against the ABs
I did not see anything special from the Aussies against the Boks
30 Jul 2010, 07:09 am
@Muttonbird(Muttonbird)-19: Why the anger, did you two lovers break up?
30 Jul 2010, 07:11 am
@HongKongSlong(HongKongSlong)-21: I’m hoping they get Hodgson on the field early in place of Brown.
More effective at the breakdown than Brown, so would help Pocock counterract King Richie.
Brown is not that strong a ball runner anyway.
30 Jul 2010, 07:15 am
@DonutDunning(DonutDunning)-25: Pocock is a Zimbabwean is he not?
30 Jul 2010, 07:17 am
@JL1(JL1)-26: Yes, moved to Aus when he was about 12 I believe.
30 Jul 2010, 07:23 am
I wonder if Robbie Deans would like to coach the Boks?I think he is gonna be u under pressure at the end of the 3Nations
30 Jul 2010, 07:30 am
21. Hong kong – yes it is but for some reason sa coaches refuse to learn this fact. I doubt we’ll play a fetcher in the home leg and no F louw is not a fetcher
30 Jul 2010, 07:36 am
@JL1(JL1)-26: kicked off their farm when he was 14…of course it wouldnt have mattered if he stayed in africa coz the ANC would toss him around regarding eligibility for the springboks
30 Jul 2010, 07:45 am
@JL1(JL1)-24: I’m new here but it didn’t take long for us not to see eye-to-eye.
30 Jul 2010, 07:46 am
@DonutDunning(DonutDunning)-25: Why do you reckon they are ignoring Higginbotham? He was awesome in the super 14. Maybe he still needs a few more games to get back to full fitness?
@Bok fan(Bok fan)-29: Until Stegman got injured last week, I thought he should have been brought into the team. People are obsessed with looking at players individually, but the combination and balance is crucial as well. A lot of people seem to think that Brusseuw wont be as effective under the new law interpretations, but I disagree. Pocock gave away 4 penalties against the Boks, for having his hands on the ball, and Ritchie Macaw did as well, but they slowed down the Boks and turned over a lot of possession, which meant there was no decent continuity at all for South Africa and hence the lack of trys. Brusseuw would have done the same, but the Boks chose otherwise.
30 Jul 2010, 07:50 am
@TheTackler(TheTackler)-22: Agreed. Has enough time and is smart enough to copy-book tackle when necessary but scrag when with supporting defenders thereby saving his body and increasing his longevity.
30 Jul 2010, 07:52 am
@HongKongSlong(HongKongSlong)-32: He is just coming back from an injury picked up late in the S14, I don’t think Deans wants to rush him back in.
Plus he really seems to rate Brown, I don’t know why (same with Burgess).
I’m also surprised that Stegmann wasn’t brought in, or at least Flouw given more time (after one bad game where whole forward pack were bad), especially after seeing how powerful Brussow was last year.
30 Jul 2010, 07:54 am
@HongKongSlong(HongKongSlong)-32:
Higginbottom was injured for a period, he only got back to playing a week before the team was announced. He is part of the squad and will get a run sooner or later. It does however appear if Deans have a thing for Brown…
30 Jul 2010, 07:55 am
@DonutDunning(DonutDunning)-34: By rushed back in, I just mean in, as it would be his debut. No point ruining him by throwing him into a Bledisloe not at 100%
30 Jul 2010, 07:55 am
@DonutDunning(DonutDunning)-34:
SNAP!!!
30 Jul 2010, 07:57 am
@Slartibartfast(Slartibartfast)-37: Great minds, etc
30 Jul 2010, 07:59 am
@Slartibartfast(Slartibartfast)-37:
Times 2!
To think he was just a no name at the start of the season. One of the best things that could have happened to Oz rugby appears the sacking and hiring of Link from the Tahs to the Reds. Cooper is another who is a totally different player than last year.
30 Jul 2010, 08:00 am
@DonutDunning(DonutDunning)-38:
I know, the injury bit I can understand, the Brown bit is a bit scary
30 Jul 2010, 08:00 am
@Slartibartfast(Slartibartfast)-35: Scott Higginbotham is a phenomenal loose forward….to be completely honest he is what Spies SHOULD be…he can come up with the flash plays to outsprint backs but he also gets involved in the dirty work. I’ll never forget him outsprinting Olivier over 50m to gather the ball for a try
30 Jul 2010, 08:03 am
@flanka(flanka)-41:
He puts in the hard yards if and when required, just like you would expect and unlike the super human speciment…
30 Jul 2010, 08:14 am
The most boring thread on keo to date.
30 Jul 2010, 08:17 am
Longterm I would like to see Higginbotham converted to a number 8, as it is the backrow spot lacking real depth in Australia.
After Palu, who is prone to regular form drops as is, there is a lack of a Test class no8.
Brown is sound without being spectacular, while Hoiles really needs to be about 10kg bigger to be effective at Test level.
After Elsom we have Mumm, Mitch Chapman and Hodgson, who I all believe are capable of playing 6 at Test level.
Higginbotham has all the attributes and attitude to be a number 8 in the Kefu mould.
30 Jul 2010, 08:25 am
@DonutDunning(DonutDunning)-44:
Was he not originally selected as a #8 for the Reds? With the early injuries there was a reshuffle…
30 Jul 2010, 08:30 am
@Slartibartfast(Slartibartfast)-45: You may be right. I just remember that for most of the season Leroy Houston was at number 8 over him, which annoyed me.
30 Jul 2010, 08:34 am
@DonutDunning(DonutDunning)-46:
I am sure Link swapped them but to long ago to remember…
Right, beer o’clock, I am off. Enjoy the weekend and the rugby and catch all on the rebound…
30 Jul 2010, 08:38 am
All Blacks by 15
30 Jul 2010, 08:58 am
will be a bit bloody funny if the ozzies win both their home tests against the kiwis.
they’ve lost 7 on the bounce against them, eventually they are going to win 1.
ozzies by 5?
30 Jul 2010, 09:34 am
Will be a good game,first Bledisloe Cup game of the year plus Aus with home advantage.
Will be harder for Ab’s than everyone thinks.If Pocock & Brown can compete on the ground with a fair amount of success it will limit AB effectiveness as they depend largely on quick ball.If they get it-THEY WILL DESTROY AUS.
With the return of Robinson & Moore upfront,will add much needed stability.
Barnes at 12 will be crucial,he is one of the best tactical kickers in the game.will need to kick accurately though.
It will be close.
BUT
Dont see the Ab’s losing this one,their pack is humming,loose trio operating at optimum.And while halfbacks have been ok,Smith/Nonu have been outstanding.But the real man of the series with Boks (along with McCaw),is Mils Muliaina-back at his irrepressible best.Kick aimlessly-you will be punished.
(if game opens up,it would be nice to see Vito & Dagg in for 20/30 min…that’ll be fireworks!!)
AB’s by 5
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