Sauls’ time is up
12 Aug 2010
GRANT BALL says that the move to look for a new SA U20 coach is the correct one.
At Saru’s executive council meeting on Wednesday one of the decisions taken was that the posts of the Baby Bok coach and his assistants would be advertised. The new coaching team will be in charge for the Junior World Championships in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
If Sauls had to re-apply and get the job again, that would mean he would have had six years at the helm. Three years has been too long without any success – just a poor return of three third-places – and it’s time for new blood in the coaching staff.
However, signs are there that Sauls will stay on, as he headed the management team of this year’s SA U18 high performance group in order to provide ‘continuity’ to the SA U20 team. The SA U18 side were lucky to beat England 23-17 last month, out-scored by three tries to one and the Boks had to rely on individual brilliance and goal-kicking rather than a constructive team performance to seal the result.
This after he was also coach of SA U18 last year, who were embarrassed 45-13 by England.
Speaking to numerous Craven Week coaches recently, they believe that the players selected for SA U20 were – with the exception of one or two omissions – the best South Africa can produce. Players who Sauls has worked with over the past three years range from Coenie Oosthuizen, Robert Ebersohn, Lionel Mapoe, Lionel Cronje, Gerhard van den Heever, Dewaldt Duvenage, Francois Hougaard, Wilton Pietersen, Pat Lambie, Wandile Mjekevu, Frik Kirsten, to Nick Koster. All of them have had success in the senior ranks, but Sauls couldn’t produce with players that would be the envy of any other nation.
Sauls’ excuses for SA U20′s repeated failures revolve around their lack of a regular competition, like a Six Nations U20 championship. But why can Australia and New Zealand, most notably the latter, perform without one? The Baby Boks toured France in February, played Eastern Province in one of their warm-ups, and Sauls had many opportunities to mould his side.
After playing in Wales in 2008 and Japan (2009), Sauls’ excuses continued as he said those conditions didn’t favour South Africans. He said Argentina 2010 was the year. But all we had was two losses against Australia and New Zealand, while Sauls’ record against those two countries and England is two wins from six in three years.
After failing to get past the semi-finals for three consecutive years (once losing heavily to England 40-21), Sauls said he was pleased his side could get a bronze in Argentina and that they could beat England for the first time in the U20 format.
That shows Sauls’ level of expectation when the Baby Boks are judging themselves against England. New Zealand have set the benchmark, more importantly by their coaching standards.
Yes the Kiwis have talented players, but they had a largely new-look squad this year with minimal players returning from last year’s (again) victorious unit. New Zealand coach Dave Rennie could not only identify talent but could blend it into a unit.
Consistent problems have come up front (troubles the coaching staff have failed to rectify over three years), while the Baby Boks have been physically out-gunned. Sauls and his supporters lament the opposition being bigger than the Baby Boks, but no one forced Sauls to pick the 1.66m 72kg Branco du Preez at inside centre against the All Blacks in this year’s semi-final, where they lost 36-7.
There was little emphasis on defence – the Baby Boks weren’t even getting dominated at the collisions, they just weren’t tackling.
When asked by this website two years ago what his response is to calls for his axing after a poor showing at the Championships, Sauls said he wasn’t concerned as he had a full-time job with the Blue Bulls. That shows what Saru should do when appointing the next head coach of the Baby Boks.
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125 Comments
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13 Aug 2010, 18:59 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Anairetes agilis)-95: The “normalisation” applies to each particular stat so that if you were comparing 5 different flankers for eg turnovers
Flanker 1 5
Flanker 2 5
Flanker 3 10
flanker 4 10
flanker 5 15
Total (for all) 45
“Normalising” them in this context:
Flanker 1 11%
Flanker 2 11%
Flanker 3 22%
flanker 4 22%
flanker 5 33%
13 Aug 2010, 18:59 pm
Apparently this was it:
Louw Francois || Stegmann Deon
Sum of Assist 29 42
Sum of Forced_Turnovers 3 6
Sum of Tackles_made 163 123
Sum of Tackles_Missed 17 10
Sum of Ball_Carries 94 36
Sum of Line_Breaks 9 3
Sum of Offloads 11 0
Average of Overall_Gainline% 74.5 65.5
Sum of Metres_Gained 558 143
Sum of Total_Passes 98 35
Sum of Playmaker_Pass 6 1
Sum of Handle_Count 184 101
Sum of Own _Team_OOA_1st3_Attack 206 297
Sum of Own _Team_OOA_1st3_Defence 165 130
So it seems almost all the categories for both players were cut down on. What happen there?
13 Aug 2010, 19:00 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-101:
Ja, but that can’t possibly be helpful since we aren’t getting a mode that’s comparable to either really.
13 Aug 2010, 19:05 pm
hey mishiwani what are you talking about, you fool. ¿under 19 2006 rugby world only 1 black player? and edgar marutlulle? marlon lewis? riacco eilerd? kirwan frieslaar? dabeon draghoender? chribo juries? karl mabeta? malungisa nkosi? musa tukela? andre smith?
this is the real quota team
13 Aug 2010, 19:06 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Anairetes agilis)-100: Mine does exclude semi and final
13 Aug 2010, 19:06 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Anairetes agilis)-102:
wait
Stegmann made 1 offload, Louw made 12…
13 Aug 2010, 19:08 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Anairetes agilis)-103: Of course you are – you are comparing player A relative to the other player by each variable
13 Aug 2010, 19:08 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-105:
That’s still way out. Look at the “Sum of Own _Team_OOA_1st3_Attack” and compare ours, for example.
And the teams went to the finals both. (So the stats flatter Flou over Stegmann a bit too since Stegmann didn’t play in the last Stormers/Bulls match. AS well, Stegmann didn’t play full games like Flou as the minute played for anyone suggests…
13 Aug 2010, 19:09 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Anairetes agilis)-106: I can give you for each game – you will have to copy and paste into notepad and then import into excel…
13 Aug 2010, 19:09 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-107:
NO I meant the trying to normalize the season total out of 100 together (whichever category).
13 Aug 2010, 19:11 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-109:
It’ll have to be done tomorrow- I’m at my lab pc. I can e-mail you my excell file- I have it on a thumb drive somewhere.
13 Aug 2010, 19:17 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-109: Here goes (a mess):
Position ID Team Name Assist Forced_Turnovers Tackles_made Tackles_Missed Ball_Carries Line_Breaks Offloads Overall_Gainline% Metres_Gained Total_Passes Playmaker_Pass Handle_Count Ruck_Turnover Own _Team_OOA_1st3_Attack Own _Team_OOA_1st3_Defence Penalties Total_Forced&Unforced_Errors Handling_Errors
6 BullsBlues Bulls Stegmann Deon 2 1 21 1 1 1 0 0 7 1 0 4 0 12 10 -5 0 0
6 BullsBrumbies Bulls Stegmann Deon 9 0 16 3 2 0 0 100 12 4 0 8 0 33 12 -2 0 -1
6 BullsChiefs Bulls Stegmann Deon 2 2 9 1 2 0 0 100 -5 1 1 5 0 25 12 -2 -1 -1
6 BullsCrusaders Bulls Stegmann Deon 6 1 12 0 3 0 0 100 2 3 0 6 0 16 12 0 0 0
6 BullsCrusadersSemi Bulls Stegmann Deon 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 33.33 16 5 0 11 0 18 17 -3 0 0
6 BullsForce Bulls Stegmann Deon 2 0 5 1 5 0 0 100 27 2 0 12 0 30 12 -2 -1 -3
19 BullsHighlanders Bulls Stegmann Deon 1 0 4 0 2 0 0 0 9 0 0 2 0 15 4 -1 0 0
6 BullsHurricanes Bulls Stegmann Deon 1 0 6 0 2 0 0 100 16 2 0 12 0 19 9 -1 -1 0
19 BullsLions Bulls Stegmann Deon 2 1 3 0 2 0 0 100 7 1 0 7 0 20 0 0 -2 -1
19 BullsReds Bulls Stegmann Deon 2 0 6 0 4 2 0 33.33 27 2 0 5 0 14 4 -2 -1 0
6 BullsSharks Bulls Stegmann Deon 5 0 11 0 1 0 0 0 10 6 0 8 0 23 11 0 -1 0
18 BullsWaratahs Bulls Stegmann Deon 0 1 1 0 3 0 1 100 6 2 0 7 0 14 5 0 0 -1
7 StormersBlues Stormers Louw Francois 2 0 16 3 4 0 0 100 20 4 0 9 0 11 12 -2 0 0
7 StormersBrumbies Stormers Louw Francois 0 1 4 1 7 0 0 71.43 10 9 0 18 0 15 6 -2 -1 -3
7 StormersBulls Stormers Louw Francois 4 0 10 0 3 0 0 50 27 5 2 7 0 16 8 -1 0 -1
7 StormersCheetahs Stormers Louw Francois 2 0 9 2 12 1 2 54.55 68 6 0 16 0 12 4 -1 0 -1
7 StormersChiefs Stormers Louw Francois 1 0 5 2 6 0 1 50 28 5 0 8 0 23 13 -1 0 0
7 StormersCrusaders Stormers Louw Francois 1 0 3 0 11 1 1 66.67 72 9 1 19 0 21 11 -1 -2 -2
7 StormersForce Stormers Louw Francois 5 0 16 4 3 0 0 66.67 22 8 1 11 0 12 12 -2 -2 -3
7 StormersHighlanders Stormers Louw Francois 3 0 13 0 4 1 2 75 30 8 1 10 0 16 10 -1 -2 -1
7 StormersHurricanes Stormers Louw Francois 4 0 18 0 2 1 1 100 21 8 0 9 0 16 15 -1 -1 -1
7 StormersLions Stormers Louw Francois 0 1 12 0 2 0 0 100 17 5 1 7 0 5 5 -2 0 0
7 StormersReds Stormers Louw Francois 0 0 8 1 10 2 2 87.5 69 10 0 17 0 20 12 -1 -3 -2
7 StormersSharks Stormers Louw Francois 2 0 15 2 10 1 1 66.67 76 6 0 15 0 8 14 0 -1 -3
7 StormersWaratahs Stormers Louw Francois 0 1 10 0 6 1 0 66.67 24 5 0 13 0 7 14 -4 -1 -1
7 StormersWaratahsSemi Stormers Louw Francois 4 0 17 2 4 0 1 75 11 4 0 11 0 9 15 -2 0 -1
Excuse the -ves for the last few variables – those feed into a player rating algorithm
(I encouraged a colleague (rugger nut) to have some fun with the data with some apps the equivalent of a pile driver to hammer a drawing pin into the wall).
We looked at all sorts of variables : eg implied points advantage for home games, all things being equal, rating of players for all variables, and much other stuff)
13 Aug 2010, 19:18 pm
hello?
13 Aug 2010, 19:20 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-112:
The copy I have is much neater.
I can e-mail you the excel file tonight or tomorrow.
13 Aug 2010, 19:21 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-112:
Who did you use?
13 Aug 2010, 19:29 pm
Will ring you tomorrow when I’ve got it and will mail it. We could lay them out neatly, side-by-side for passerbys to make sense of.
How’s that sound?
13 Aug 2010, 19:29 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Anairetes agilis)-115: We used a couple of Stats / Econometric apps, Data miners etc – and then compared results… The results differed depending on methodology…
This was basically an afternoon with slack time – so it was a practical but enjoyable test of some analysis / simulation apps used for more “boring” stuff normally…
A nice little pearler was that for this year the home advantage for a team, adjusting for all these individual variables and team variables by game is between 7-8 points…
But that was using this data, obviously
13 Aug 2010, 19:34 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Anairetes agilis)-116: No ringing necessary – anonymous is as anonymous HG does on Keo
No offence implied – can send you results of SQL server Datamining add-in for excel – game “predictor”….
The colleague used an algorithm normally used for credit evaluations (scorecards) to “predict” games (all based on this data)… Interesting stuff
13 Aug 2010, 19:54 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Anairetes agilis)-108: But surely the fact that Flo plays extra games should count to his advantage – a “hardiness” bonus, as such…
13 Aug 2010, 20:19 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-118:
ok,I’ll email you,got it.
Busy watching Noot vir Noot now.
just set up a temporary email.
And just compare the totals at first and try to fit it into the context of each’s role.
is that ok?
13 Aug 2010, 20:57 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Anairetes agilis)-120: Classic case of “show yours, I’ll show mine” – look, to be fair, you suggested contact – I will send to you first and then you can reply with your data…
13 Aug 2010, 22:30 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-121:
Ok, first one modded.
Let’s try again:
sendmeyourstats (at) hotmail (dot) com
It’s really an easy thing to compile (if you have a source), but I’ll sommer stuur it for your so that you’re ssaved the trouble. But be sure to verify if you’d like.
And I have another PDF with some calcs, but I don’t know where it is- still looking. But it’s simple too. (Anyway, you can make your own assumptions and calculations etc. And I’m sure it’ll become obvious that it isn’t so simple, and that Stegmann had a higher workrate and efficiency in many areas. One has to take the teams into account, but even if you knew nothing of either team or player, you’d be able to come to certain conclusions.)
OK?
13 Aug 2010, 22:46 pm
@Agile T*t-Tyrant(Anairetes agilis)-122: Sent
13 Aug 2010, 23:35 pm
@Heavens Game(Heavens Game)-124:
Ok, replied. Sorry for the delay.
14 Aug 2010, 19:46 pm
Is Naka’s time not up as well?
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