Fearless Boks powerful enough to feast in Wellington

Why Keo says the Boks will win, but Zels is not convinced. He has another All Blacks victory, having called the hosts by four points at Eden Park.

Wellington is no Eden Park. The All Blacks have been beaten at Sky Stadium and the Springboks know it.

Rassie Erasmus’s men shocked New Zealand 36-34 there in 2018 and drew 16-all the next year. Ireland, the Lions and even Argentina have also had joy in Wellington, with the Pumas scoring a record 38 points against the hosts just a year ago.

That history fuels belief. The Boks may have lost at Eden Park last weekend, but after conceding two early tries they outmuscled the All Blacks for the final hour and came close to levelling at 24-all. The scrum, transformed by Wilco Louw and Lood de Jager, was dominant. De Jager starts on Saturday, while Jasper Wiese’s return at No 8 restores the physical edge missing in Auckland.

Erasmus has doubled down on experience in the pack and added impact through RG Snyman off the bench. But it’s in the backline where he has rolled the dice. Flyhalf Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, inside centre Damian Willemse, outside centre Canan Moodie and debutant wing Ethan Hooker combine as a new quartet. All four are dangerous. Feinberg-Mngomezulu has already beaten the All Blacks twice in 2024, Willemse is closing in on 50 Tests, Moodie shredded them at Twickenham in 2023, and Hooker — just 21 — was the Sharks’ player of the season.

The All Blacks are settled in the forwards but weakened by injuries at scrumhalf and uncertainty in midfield and the back three. It leaves them vulnerable if the Boks can force them onto the back foot.

For South Africa to win, they must start strong, build scoreboard pressure and force New Zealand to chase. It sounds simple, but history underlines the difficulty: only four Bok wins in 29 Tests in New Zealand since 1994.

Sky Stadium, though, is no fortress. It has been breached, and the Boks believe it can be again.

Keo’s Prediction: Springboks 33-23 All Blacks

Zels’ Prediction: Springboks 23-27 All Blacks