Rassie’s match-day squads are more player science than rotation

Rassie Erasmus’s Springboks will aim for a fifth successive win against the Wallabies on Saturday – and in each of the previous four wins, he has retained on average just 30 percent of the starting XV and less than 50 percent of the match 23, writes Mark Keohane. His match-day squads emphasise player science more than rotation.

This has been no guessing game for Erasmus as he builds a squad for an unprecedented third successive Rugby World Cup title.

The Boks are chasing Castle Rugby Championship history this season with a first ever back-to-back Rugby Championship title. The All Blacks have done it, but never the Boks.

Erasmus does not enjoy the phrase ‘horses for courses’. He describes it as too cliche and too simple in how he finalises a run on XV and a match 23, especially in the past four Test wins against Australia, three of them in Australia and one at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria.

Erasmus’s Boks started the winning streak against the Wallabies with a 24-8 win in Sydney, Australia. It is a Test in which Canan Moodie announced himself to the rugby world. Moodie was electric on the right wing and scored an AFL type chase, leap, catch and score individual try, layered with brilliance in all facets of modern wing play.

This was in 2022.

When reversing the selections, from the starting XV and match 23 announced this weekend, it is remarkable how many changes Erasmus has made, without weakening the Springboks.

A year ago Erasmus picked a team and match squad to beat Australia at the Springboks most haunted venue in Australia, Brisbane’s Suncorp Stadium.

The Boks responded in style, winning 33-7, with Australia getting on the scoreboard in the 76th minute.

Of that starting XV and match 23, just six start on Saturday and 10 in total front the Australians.

A week later, in Perth, Erasmus made double digit changes, and the Boks won 30-12. Of that starting XV and match 23, just four of the starting XV will start on Saturday and 12 in total will be in the match 23.

When Erasmus’s Boks clobbered Eddie Jones’s Wallabies 43-12 at Loftus in 2023, just four of the run on XV start on Saturday and 10 of the 23.

Erasmus did not do this alone. Jacques Nienaber was at the helm as Bok coach for the Sydney and Pretoria wins, but Erasmus was overseeing strategy and selections as National Director of Rugby.

Nienaber and Erasmus, if they disagreed on a selection, never showed it publicly. They always presented as a united duo.

What the selections have shown is the incredible depth Erasmus has built and how in most positions it is one or the other. I would say that Cheslin Kolbe, right wing, Pieter-Steph du Toit, blindside flanker, Siya Kolisi (open side flanker), Eben Etzebeth (No 4 lock) and the front row of Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Wilco Louw right now are first cabs off the rank in their position, but for the rest and the remainder of the squad, there is very little to choose between who starts, who plays from the bench and who sits in the stands.

 

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Erasmus has spoken of the need to have 45 players in which he believes could start a World Cup play-offs, one for each position, and his selections will show how close he is to having those 45 available for the 2027 World Cup campaign.

SIYA TO START AT NO 8 v WALLABIES

RASSIE ON WHY HE PICKED SIYA AT No 8

Boks match 23 that beat Wallabies 24-8 in Sydney

Boks match 23 that beat Wallabies 43-12 in Pretoria

Boks match 23 that beat Wallabies 33-7 in Brisbane

Boks match 23 that beat Wallabies 30-12 in Perth

Not one player has started in one position in each of the five Tests (including Saturday) while Erasmus/Nienaber would have used as starting options:

2 x No 15s

3 x No 14s

2 x No 13s

2 x No 11s

3 x No 10s

4 x No 9s

3 x No 1s

3 x No 3s

3 x No 4s

4 x No 5s

2 x No 6s

3 x No 7s

4 x No 8s

Here’s an interesting stat: Double World Cup winner Handre Pollard has not started in any of the five Tests at flyhalf and has only once been included in the match 23.