Rassie’s Perth gamble comes with a loaded bench

Keo & Zels unpack Rassie Erasmus’s 13 Springbok changes, André Esterhuizen’s captaincy and the Bomb Squad threat against the Wallabies in Perth.

Erasmus is gambling in Perth. He has also loaded the Springbok bench with enough insurance to rescue the result if his starting selection goes pear-shaped against the Wallabies.

That was the verdict from the latest Keo & Zels Rugby Show after Erasmus made 13 changes to his starting XV for Sunday’s Test in Western Australia.

Nobody would have selected this particular starting team. Not Keo. Not Zels. Not the thousands who played selector on the show’s social platforms.

The concern is not the quality of the individuals. Every player picked is good enough to be a Springbok. The gamble is that so many of those who needed game time have been selected together, behind a tight five and within combinations that have not played together.

The Boks have talent. What they don’t have in this starting XV is cohesion.

Erasmus has made the changes after four successive Tests against the All Blacks. Mentally and physically, the regular starters needed a break. The alternative group deserved an opportunity.

But opportunity is strongest when a less experienced player is introduced into an established combination. In Perth, nearly everyone has been introduced at once.

It makes André Esterhuizen’s appointment as captain even more significant. Esterhuizen has gone from midfield understudy to hybrid forward and now Springbok captain. His reinvention has been among the success stories of the Erasmus era.

Esterhuizen’s greatest asset has always been his physicality. He no longer plays as if he must apologise for being bigger and stronger than the player opposite him. He carries, tackles and cleans like a forward while retaining the skills of a Test centre.

He will also probably play 80 minutes, even if nobody knows exactly where he will finish the match.

The Wallabies will test the unfamiliarity of the Bok combinations. They are technically strong at the breakdown, dangerous from turnovers and kick receipt and good enough to identify and attack a weakness during the match.

Australia’s best 23 can compete with anyone. They do not go away, they feed off scraps and they have repeatedly troubled South Africa in one-off Tests.

Erasmus has responded with mobility, breakdown strength and a back row selected to disrupt Australian ball. The starting front row is young, athletic and exciting, but it does not carry the established scrumming threat of the Bok combinations that dominated New Zealand.

That threat sits on the bench.

Malcolm Marx, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and the heavyweight front-row reinforcements give Erasmus the power to change the match in the second half. The starters have been challenged to keep the Boks in the fight. The Bomb Squad has been selected to finish it.

Zels expects a messy contest and believes Australia will stay within the seven-and-a-half-point betting spread, but still has the Boks winning 25-18.

Keo’s call is the Springboks 32-22.

The Boks may struggle for rhythm early, but the bench will be too strong. Rassie has rolled the dice, but he has kept the loaded ones for the final quarter.