Boks will beat Australia, but they won’t beat them up

Expect the Boks to beat Australia in Cape Town on Saturday, but don’t expect it to be a beating. The norm between these two teams in Cape Town has been of tightly fought contests, writes Mark Keohane.

Expect Handre Pollard to be pivotal to the Boks’ win, but this will be an arm wrestle, a strategic battle defined by field position and a strong set piece.

Newlands played host to six matches between the Boks and Wallabies since 1995, and this will be a first between the two teams at the DHL Stadium in Cape Town.

There were one, three and four point wins for the Boks against Australia, with the most decisive being a 28-8 win. But the Boks have not scored more than 28 points against the Wallabies in any of those six Tests.

The belief within the squad may be that records are to be broken and that the only way to make history is to defy historical odds. The Wallabies did that a week ago at Ellis Park, where they had never won in the professional age, and only ever once (1963) in their history.

It would be a remarkable result if the Wallabies went back to back, but I don’t see it happening.

Ellis Park was a crazy game and it is one that will haunt South Africans for a long time, just as the 57-0 defeat in 2017 to New Zealand did, and the 49-0 defeat to the Wallabies in Brisbane in 2006. In both those in between World Cup cycles, the Boks went onto win the World Cup tournament that followed.

Australia, as the next RWC hosts in 2027, is a long way off and the reality of the Ellis Park defeat was a reminder of how quickly a game can turn, and how quickly many turn on the Springboks.

I have watched the Boks’ defeat a few times this week and that last 45 minutes, including the final five before half-time, never gets easier on the eye.

The Wallabies, full value for refusing to go away after 20 minutes, were also gift-wrapped so many try-scoring opportunities on the counter attack. And they were good enough to strike when given this Bok party pack and hamper of turnovers, fumbles, inaccuracy and dead legs. The Boks were gassed in Johannesburg.

They won’t be in Cape Town.

BOKS 23 charged with the task of redemption

The match will be played at a slower pace, the Bok bench, especially the quartet of Wilco Louw, Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager and Kwagga Smith, has more of a bomb squad collective presence than those drip fed into action a week ago.

The Wallabies have made three changes to the 23 and are settled after the British & Irish Lions three-Test series and the big win in Johannesburg.

LATEST NEWS: BOKS V WALLABIES

Rassie Erasmus made 10 changes to the starting XV and 12 to the match 23, which is consistent with every one of his starting XVs and match 23s this season. Post Saturday, one will find that the 23 in action on Saturday will be the majority of the ones that look to create history against the All Blacks at Eden Park on the 6th September.

The Boks have no choice but to respect the occasion on Saturday and show the Wallabies the necessary respect.

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I also think the best value for a return is to go under for the total match points.

History Suggests Tight, Low-Scoring Battles

Cape Town has hosted six Springbok–Wallabies Tests since the dawn of professionalism, and the scoring trends speak volumes.

• 1995 RWC: South Africa 27–18 Australia (45 points)
• 1999 Tri Nations: South Africa 10–9 Australia (19 points)
• 2003 Tri Nations: South Africa 26–22 Australia (48 points)
• 2009 Tri Nations: South Africa 29–17 Australia (46 points)
• 2013 Rugby Championship: South Africa 28–8 Australia (36 points)
• 2014 Rugby Championship: South Africa 28–10 Australia (38 points)

That’s an average of just under 39 points per game across nearly two decades of fixtures. In fact, only once (2003) has the total crept to 48. The lowest, a grinding 10–9 in 1999, was a pure arm-wrestle.