Stormers v Bulls URC Final: Part Two!  The road to a potential showdown in Cape Town is alive for South Africa’s top two teams, but it will require the Stormers and Bulls to navigate a play-off path that history suggests will not easily bend for visiting teams.

URC LAST EIGHT

The Stormers played the Bulls in the first URC Final – and won 18-13 at the DHL Stadium in Cape Town.

They have played the Bulls twice in the URC league this season, in Cape Town and at Loftus in Pretoria. They have won both times.

Stormers v Bulls

The Stormers and Bulls is the greatest club rivalry in South Africa and here is what must happen if the Stormers are to host the the Bulls in the 2025/26 URC final.

The quarter-final line-up sees the third-placed Stormers hosting sixth-placed Cardiff in Cape Town and the fourth-placed Bulls facing fifth-placed Munster Rugby at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria.

League winners Glasgow Warriors host Connacht Rugby in Glasgow, while second-placed Leinster Rugby welcome the Lions to Dublin.

The play-off permutations are straightforward:

Should the Stormers and Bulls both win their quarter-finals, their semi-final venues will depend entirely on results in Dublin and Glasgow.

The Stormers can only host a semi-final if the Lions upset Leinster in Dublin. If Leinster win, as expected, the Stormers would travel to Ireland for a semi-final.

Likewise, the Bulls can only host a semi-final if Connacht beat Glasgow away from home. Should Glasgow progress, the Bulls would head to Scotland for the last four.

If both South African franchises were then to win away semi-finals, the URC final would be staged in Cape Town because the Stormers finished above the Bulls on the final league table and would therefore be the highest remaining seed.

History, however, heavily favours the home sides in three of the four quarter-finals.

The Lions have never beaten Leinster in Dublin, while Cardiff have never won against the Stormers in Cape Town.

Connacht, similarly, have never beaten Glasgow in Glasgow, although the margins have been notably tight. Their two URC visits to Scotstoun ended in defeats of just 29-27 and 22-19, evidence that Glasgow’s quarter-final may not be as straightforward as the seeding suggests when No 1 plays No 8 in the league standings.

The most intriguing quarter-final from a historical perspective is unquestionably Bulls against Munster in Pretoria.

Munster are the only away side in this year’s quarter-finals to have previously won at the venue where they will now attempt to advance.

The Irish province beat the Bulls 27-22 at Loftus in April 2024 and have pushed the Pretoria side to the edge in every URC meeting on the Highveld.

The Bulls won 29-24 in 2022 before edging Munster 34-31 earlier this season. Across the three URC meetings in Pretoria, the aggregate points differential is just three points in favour of the Bulls – a statistical split that underlines how little has separated the teams in South Africa.

Stormers director of rugby John Dobson insisted his side would not allow themselves to look beyond Cardiff despite the growing discussion around a possible home final.

“We have earned the right to play at home and we know what playing at DHL Stadium means to this group,” said Dobson. “But Cardiff deserve enormous respect. They are organised, tough and dangerous. In knock-out rugby there is no second chance and all our focus is on getting through the quarter-final.”

Dobson also stressed the importance of the Cape Town support base in the play-offs.

“Our supporters have been unbelievable for us over the years and we know the energy they bring in Cape Town. We will need that again because finals rugby is always decided by very small moments.”

Bulls coach Johan Ackermann acknowledged the challenge posed by a Munster team with proven pedigree in knockout rugby and a demonstrated ability to win at Loftus.

“Munster are one of the toughest teams in the competition mentally,” said Ackermann. “They have shown before they can come to Pretoria and win and every game we have played against them has gone down to the final moments. At this stage of the competition there are no easy games. We know we will have to be far more clinical because Munster punish mistakes.”

Lions coach Ivan van Rooyen said his side would embrace the challenge of facing Leinster in Dublin despite the historical record against them.

“We understand the magnitude of the challenge,” Van Rooyen said. “Leinster are consistently one of the best teams in Europe and their home record speaks for itself, but this group has worked hard to put itself into the playoffs and we are not travelling there just to participate.”

Van Rooyen added: “Knockout rugby is about handling pressure moments and taking opportunities when they come. We have to believe in our game.”

The quarter-finals now present South African rugby with a genuine opportunity.

The Stormers have the advantage of Cape Town, the Bulls have recent experience of edging Munster in Pretoria and the Lions travel to Dublin with nothing to lose, having played Leinster a fortnight ago.

But if there is to be a URC final in Cape Town, South Africa’s franchises will almost certainly have to do something that history says is extraordinarily difficult, which is win away knockout matches in Dublin and Glasgow.

KEO UNCUT – MARK KEOHANE SUNDAY TIMES AND TIMES LIVE RUGBY COLUMNS