Kiwis believe world champion Boks are there to be beaten

The Kiwis believe the All Blacks can beat the Springboks at Ellis Park. They also know exactly why most South Africans believe they won’t.

Springboks v All Blacks

A day out from the first of four Tests in Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry, the New Zealand conversation has shifted from survival to possibility. The All Blacks have won six from six under Dave Rennie, but those doing the talking are not confusing wins against the Stormers, Sharks and Bulls with the world champions.

The New Zealand Herald’s Gregor Paul has reduced the contest to its truth: speed against power. He sees tighthead Tyrel Lomax as New Zealand’s answer to the Bok scrum and the forward around whom the All Blacks can resist before they run.

Fellow Herald writer Liam Napier framed the tour from its beginning with “size matters in South Africa”, while Stuff described Rennie’s selection thinking as a “big-man gamble”. The Kiwis know they cannot play their rugby if their forwards are being folded.

Jamie Wall is the boldest of the travelling media. Wall has picked the All Blacks to win 26-19 and insists that “nothing less than a series victory” is acceptable. It is a proper Kiwi position. New Zealand rugby has never celebrated honourable defeats.

Kieran Read believes Argentina showed the attacking blueprint: quick ruck ball, width and the courage to attack space beyond South Africa’s narrow defensive wall. Justin Marshall’s version is more brutal. Make the Bok forwards run at altitude, he says, and get them into the “hurt locker” before they can turn the contest into a wrestle.

Marshall also called South African confidence arrogant, then conceded it had been earned. The Boks are back-to-back world champions, have won five of the past six against New Zealand and ended the last meeting 43-10.

That score is in every Kiwi thought, even when it is not in every Kiwi sentence.

John Kirwan, with tongue only partly in cheek, suggested Rassie Erasmus had asked the provincial teams not to mimic the Boks because he wanted to lull the All Blacks into false security. Kirwan’s humour carries a serious point: nothing New Zealand faced in the opening three tour matches resembles what arrives at Ellis Park.

Jeff Wilson called Ellis Park overwhelming for the uninitiated and said this is where New Zealand will discover whether the All Blacks are truly back. Wilson’s advice was to feed off the hostility, not fear it.

Steve Hansen believes the Boks are at their most vulnerable now because their premier combination has had limited time together. Yet Hansen would not call the result. He sees a happier, more united All Blacks team with clarity, but he also sees the world’s No 1 team at home.

Stephen Donald has no such restraint. His pre-tour prediction was New Zealand 3-0 in South Africa before gifting the Boks the Baltimore Test.

The Kiwis have found their voice and they have found their belief.

I love it.